SITUATION AS AT 31 AUGUST 2006
OUTLOOK:
Based on a monthly value of minus 14.1 for August the Southern
Oscillation Index (SOI) is now in a 'Consistently Negative' phase. For
most of Queensland the chance of getting above the long-term median
rainfall for September to November is 20 to 40%. A negative SOI phase at
the end of August increases the chance of getting above median maximum
temperatures for September to November especially across the southern
two thirds of the state.
Over the last couple of months the latitude of the sub-tropical ridge of
high pressure has remained further south than normal. This has
contributed to rain and shower activity through increased flow of moist
easterly winds. Its effect has been most noticeable across northern and
coastal regions of Queensland.
The latest information on conditions in the Pacific continues to
indicate a warming trend of ocean temperatures in the central Pacific
running eastward along the equator from the international dateline. If
this pattern persists it will most likely have a drying effect on our
expected rainfall in spring and early summer regardless of whether it is
a 'classic' El Nino or not.
STATE OVERVIEW:
Conditions remain relatively unchanged across the State with the
exception around Ingham where heavy rain has been falling and causing
significant flooding. Livestock condition varies throughout all regions
although the majority of properties have destocked heavily. In the
north, west and central districts livestock condition appears to be
reasonable, while in the south and south east poor quality pastures are
causing stock condition to fall away. Supplementary feeding is being
incorporated to assist in maintaining body condition. Pastures are
variable across most regions. In the southern districts quality and
quantity remain poor while in the central region pastures are generally
of good supply and of better quality than is expected for this time of
year.
There are currently 64 shires and 5 part shires drought declared under
State processes, which is equivalent to 60.5% of the land area of the
State. There are also 233 Individually Droughted Properties (IDPs) in a
further 16 shires. Following recommendations from the Esk Kilcoy Local
Drought Committee, the Minister for Primary Industries and Fisheries
drought declared Esk and Kilcoy Shires effective 1 August 2006.
REGIONAL SUMMARIES:
North Region: The region has experienced warm days, cool nights and
minimal rainfall during August. Overall the region generally remains in
average condition with some pockets that are really good while other
areas could be better. The late season has proven beneficial with
pasture quality remaining fair well into winter. The wet winter had
caused some delay to the cane harvest although generally August was a
good month.
West Region: Rainfall for August was limited to smaller falls across the
region with the majority of rain this month falling in the central and
south-west areas. Longreach had the highest fall of 7.2mm, while
Isisford received 6mm, Barcaldine 5.6mm, Blackall 5.4mm, Cunnamulla
2.8mm, Tambo 2.6mm and finally Charleville 0.2mm. The central-west still
has not received any beneficial rain, the pasture is drying off and
annual grasses are disappearing with some districts almost destocked.
Given this, livestock are generally in reasonable condition.
Central Region: Cold weather in the first weeks of August brought frosts
to some parts of the Mackay district initiating a significant downturn
in pasture quality and quantity. However warm weather towards the end of
August, combined with adequate soil moisture and longer hours of
sunlight led to low levels of new growth in standing pasture. With the
exception of the heavy clay soils in the Nebo district, which carry low
levels of pasture comprised of mainly annual forbs, pastures in the
district are generally of good supply and of better quality than is
normal for this time of year. In the Rockhampton district reasonable
soil moisture levels have started some useful response in pastures with
a greater response in improved pastures. Saleyard numbers have remained
steady at Gracemere at around 3000 head weekly with prices remaining
firm. A late frost caused yield losses in some wheat and chickpea crops
to the south of Emerald.
South-East Region: Rainfall during the month has been average in many
locations across the region with most of this rainfall occurring in the
last four days of the month. Generally speaking September and August are
the driest months of the year and the average or less than average
rainfalls have not made any impact on current deficits. Pasture quality
and quantity remains poor and this has been reflected in livestock. Most
producers are now supplementary feeding.
South Region: Rainfall in the South region ranged from 10mm to 40mm for
August, with the Western Downs and Maranoa districts recording the lower
falls. The continuing rainfall deficiency across the district has
negatively affected both pasture and crop production. Overall, there has
been little herbage or forage crop production due to limited winter
rain. Livestock are falling away in body condition which has resulted in
an increase in supplementary feeding. Due to insufficient rainfall,
there has been limited winter dryland planting over the region. Crops
that have survived to this point will require rain to maintain
production. Pasture availability is average to below. It is expected
that stock condition will continue to fall unless there is significant
rain in the coming months.
LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES:
North Region: The regional situation at present is favourable overall
with the exception in parts of the Charters Towers and Bowen districts
which still have not received enough effective rainfall. August brought
little relief and surface water is still an issue. Overall winter rain
has ensured continued pasture growth in most areas of the region. In the
Normanton stock district cattle are looking reasonable for this time of
year. Pasture has dried off and the drier conditions should see the
quality fall away over the coming months. Cattle across the Georgetown
district are generally in good condition. Generally there is a good body
of grass across the district with the late wet having resulted in a
better end to winter than in the previous few years. Water storages
across the district are generally good for this time of year. There have
been some reports in the Malanda district of stock losing condition due
to low nutritional values in the pasture. This has caused some producers
to start supplementation feeding. Pasture had good growth due to
significant rain but lacked nutritional value caused by no sun. Surface
water is still plentiful. Around the Babinda area it is reported that
destocking is occurring due to grasses dying as a result of flooding and
the constant rainfall. Innisfail stock are looking poor due to little
to no grass growth and limited nutrition. There are no surface water
problems. Stock condition is good throughout the Townsville district.
The coastal areas of the Bowen district are generally still in good
shape for the foreseeable future for feed and water but follow up falls
of rain are needed now from Collinsville to the west and south west.
West Region: Stock condition generally remains good across the region.
This has mainly been achieved through low stocking rates. Areas around
Cunnamulla, Boulia and Windorah still remain very dry with stock numbers
also low. Properties in the Paroo, Boulia and Quilpie Shires are
continuing to destock as pasture quality and quantities continue to
deteriorate. In the north west of the region livestock generally remain
in good condition with the majority of most sheep and cattle in forward
store to fat condition. Stock to the south of Mt Isa are in excellent
condition although around the Boulia district stock condition is falling
away. The majority of all movements taking place are either to feedlots
or slaughter. Generally across the north west there does not appear to
be any substantial drought feeding taking place with the exception
around Boulia. Overall livestock throughout the central west are
generally in good condition although this is still attributed to
extensive destocking programs. While there have been minimal stock
movements in recent weeks, around Boulia livestock are either being sold
due to the high freight costs associated with bringing in feed or sent
to agistment until the season improves. Pastures have been severely
drought affected with very little dry matter available for stock.
Isolated storms have produced some feed supplies but only for those
properties fortunate enough to be under them.
Central Region: Livestock condition is generally good across the whole
district. Some producers in the Nebo district are yet to commence
supplementation with dry feed. Those properties with little bulk are
seeking agistment in other districts. Improved pastures have responded
to recent rain events in most districts with native pastures expected to
respond once the warmer weather approaches. Generally across the Central
Highlands below average summer rain and moderate to good early winter
rain has meant that paddocks with high stocking rates are in poor
condition. Graziers who responded to the summer seasonal conditions by
reducing stock number have generally experienced one of the better
winters in recent years.
South-East Region: In most areas of the region livestock are continuing
to fall off in condition as the winter progresses and conditions remain
dry. Many producers are now heavily supplementing their remaining stock.
Areas that have received some rainfall will benefit from short green
pasture growth. Most cows with calves are showing a drop off in
condition. Most stock movements are to slaughter or sale as stores as
agistment become very hard to source. Producers are taking advantage of
reasonably buoyant prices and continue to off-load their stock. Drought
feeding is continuing with supplies of some concentrates limited. Many
producers are supplementing and feeding cattle on grain although grain
supplies are becoming more expensive. Pasture quality and quantity
remains poor. With the current warm conditions and some follow-up rain
the pasture situation could change for the better. It will be some time
though before there is any reasonable bulk of pasture even with ideal
seasonal conditions in the next few months.
South Region: Livestock condition across the region generally falls
within fat score 2 to 3. Cows with calves continue to slip so the
climatic conditions over the coming months will be vital for stock.
Graziers continue to reduce herd and flock numbers to ensure good
survival and production rates leading into summer. There are large
numbers of stock continuing to be sold off each week. Limited on-farm
stock water supplies will generally determine the short to medium term
carrying capabilities of most properties. Drought feeding is occurring
with the areas of Balonne, Taroom and Booringa shires among the first to
feed stock. The majority of the pasture across the district is low in
quantity and quality, although the Border River district has better
quantities of standing feed. Herbage production has been low due to a
dry winter.
CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE:
North Region: The maize harvest has finished on the Tablelands with poor
yields reported due to cyclone damage and some crops having to be
ploughed in. Winter cereals have been planted and are maturing well.
Innisfail banana crops have started to grow after minimal growth in
April, May and June due to the lack of sunlight from overcast
conditions. Growers have commenced ground work in replant blocks that
were destroyed by cyclone Larry. Pawpaw growers are preparing for spring
planting. On the Tablelands the potato crop is growing well with some of
the early crops being harvested. In the Bowen district the cropping
season is in full production with the harvesting of tomatoes, capsicums,
beans and sweet corn ongoing. Dry weather has provided ideal harvesting
and planting conditions for sugarcane during the month. In the Tully
district the return of fine weather has harvesting and planting back on
track. In the Herbert district, a fine dry month had allowed growers to
get back on track with harvesting. The late wet season has the Burdekin
crop cutting slightly above estimate.
Central Region: August was a mostly hot month in the Callide and Dawson
Valley. Some useful relief rain fell late in the month, with the better
falls in eastern parts of the area. The best totals were 30 - 40 mm in
two falls in most parts of the Callide, although isolated areas in the
central parts of the valley received 40 mm in one fall bringing their
totals to near 60 mm. Falls in the Dawson valley were in the 10 - 25 mm
range. The hot weather has hastened the development of winter cereal
crops, with the early planted ones rapidly approaching harvest and later
crops approaching head emergence by the end of the month. Crops in the
northern Callide and some southern parts of the Dawson have suffered the
most in the heat due to low subsoil moisture, although the rain late in
the month will mean that at least a harvestable yield should now be
produced. Chickpeas are also progressing well with no major problems at
this stage. Only two reasonable frosts were recorded, but in general
most crops would have escaped without any significant damage. The
harvest of winter crops is expected to start in the second week of
September, with some growers on track to produce above average yields.
The late planted crops are generally yet to flower and also at the
greatest risk of suffering yield reductions as temperatures start to
rise. Rain at the end of August also sparked some planting activity with
small areas of forage and grain sorghum likely to be planted over the
next few weeks. As most of the area was planted to winter crop this
year, the area of spring crop is likely to remain low. In the Central
Highlands many producers have planted late sorghum, and a few crops of
pearl millet were planted as an alternative to sorghum. A late frost
occurred on the Southern Highlands with some serious damage occurring to
some wheat and chickpea crops. The exact extent of damage will not be
known until harvest. Wheat harvest has begun in a few paddocks, although
mainly on the Southern Highlands around Gindie / Fernlees.
South-East Region: Some growers in the region have chanced on a very
late winter crop by planting on rain in July. These crops were already
stressed due to a lack of moisture although they should benefit from
recent rain. Apart from this the cropping season generally remained
almost non-existent in the region. Avocado harvesting of the Hass
variety continued through August although prices have started to fall
away as volumes increased this month. Latest estimates show an
expectation of an 'average' to 'good' crop for 2006 across the region.
Given this, the performance of individual orchards in the region varies.
Pineapple production has slowed with harvesting volumes falling away due
to the cooler winter conditions. Macadamia harvesting continued through
August and the dry weather provided good conditions for mechanical
harvesting. The price for the 2006 crop has settled at an average of
$2.50 per kg of nut in shell compared to $3.65 in 2005. By the end of
August the mid-season strawberry varieties, Camarosa and Festival were
in full production. Good quality Camarosa fruit is generally attracting
a high price.
South Region: There was insufficient rain to plant winter crop in any
quantity. The window of opportunity for winter planting has now closed
for eastern areas in July. Rainfall over the summer fallow period, from
October 2005 to April 2006, was below average for most of the region.
The exception was in the Border Rivers area. On the Darling Downs,
winter dryland crops are moisture stressed with soil moisture profiles
generally low. The cereal planting window for the Downs closed at the
end of July and yield prospects are low. Low water reserves are expected
to limit most opportunities for irrigated crops going summer with a
significant reduction in the area planted out to cotton. Light rains
should enable limited planting of summer crops on low soil moisture
profiles although widespread plantings are unlikely unless conditions
change. In the Border Rivers district there was widespread planting over
the winter. However, as this is a critical period where crops require
substantial rain to maintain production, producers will require a change
in the current rainfall patterns. The Maranoa area has had limited
winter planting opportunities with shallow sub soil moisture profiles.
Within the Balonne shire the earlier planted crops are now moisture
stressed and going into head. Sub-soil moisture levels generally need
significant replenishment before a summer crop can be planted with
confidence in these districts. Vegetable growers in the Granite Belt
area are optimistic for the upcoming season with water storages
currently sitting at approximately 60%.
RAINFALL (figure in brackets indicates average)
North Region: Babinda received n/a (103) Cairns A/P 14mm (22), Malanda
n/a (39), Ingham 2mm (37), Innisfail 50mm (n/a), Townsville 0.0mm (14),
Tully 42mm (110), Bowen 2mm (n/a), Charters Towers 0.6mm (n/a),
Georgetown 0.0mm (3) and Normanton A/P 0.2mm (n/a) and Proserpine A/P
1mm (n/a).
West Region: Birdsville A/P n/a (10), Boulia 0.0mm (8), Windorah 0.0mm
(9), Cloncurry 0.0mm (n/a),
Mt Isa 0.0mm (5), Longreach 7mm (14), Muttaburra 0.2mm (13), Winton
0.0mm (6) and Charleville 5mm (22).
Central Region: Alpha recorded n/a (22), Clermont 0.0mm (21), Springsure
2mm (26), Mackay 12mm (29), Yaamba 0.8mm (26), Biloela A/P 18mm (27), Mt
Larcom 18mm (36), Gladstone 7mm (32), Theodore n/a (31), and Yeppoon
20mm (n/a).
South-East Region: Eidsvold recorded 26mm (34), Gayndah 15mm (n/a),
Mundubbera 17mm (34),
Esk 35mm (40), Kilkivan 15mm (39), Kingaroy 9mm (n/a), Nanango 18mm
(40), Proston 14mm (35), and Beaudesert 39mm (49). On the coastal
fringe Bundaberg received 75mm (43), Maryborough 16mm (45), Nambour 58mm
(57) and Tewantin 12mm (n/a).
South Region: Clifton 14mm (38), Dalby 12mm (n/a), Goondiwindi 5mm
(n/a), Inglewood n/a (37), Oakey 14mm (30), Pittsworth 28mm (40),
Stanthorpe 26mm (48), Toowoomba AP 39mm (n/a),
Warwick 16mm (n/a), Roma 0.6mm (n/a), Miles 9mm (n/a), St George A/P 1mm
(n/a) and Taroom 5mm (31).
WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES
North Region: Water storages are full to near full across the region.
The major water storages at Tinaroo and Burdekin Dams are at 96% and 95%
respectively.
West Region: Rainfall in the south-west of the region, has replenished
some surface water supplies. In other areas of the south-west and
central west, there is still only minimal surface water available and
many are still relying wholly on the great artesian basin.
Central Region: Although some reserves are quite low, rain has reduced
the need for widespread irrigation. Minor inflows to on farm storages
have allowed cattle to remain dispersed in the Mackay region. Storages
in other districts have not changed this month.
South-East Region: Despite some isolated large falls of rain many inland
areas of the region still have mediocre water supplies. Many old bores
are now being used to supply water.
South Region: Water carting has increased with more properties within
Chinchilla, Bell and Tara moving water to stock. Surface water levels
are continuing to fall. Stream flow was once again well below average
across all catchments throughout the region.
Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY
Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454
National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)
 |
The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries. |
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