SITUATION AS AT 31 DECEMBER 2006
OUTLOOK:
The monthly value of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) for November was
minus 0.7 and for December was minus 5.3.
The SOI is therefore is in a "Consistently Near Zero" phase. The 30 day
average of the SOI as of the 4th January was
minus 1.9. Based on a "Near Zero" SOI phase and historical rainfall
records, there is a 40 to 50% chance of getting
median rainfall for January through to the end of March across most of
Queensland. There has been a marginal
improvement in the seasonal outlook. As Queensland is in its summer
dominant rainfall season there remains a
reasonable chance of getting useful relief rain.
Information on atmospheric patterns and ocean temperatures in the central
Pacific indicate that the El Nino sea
surface temperature (SST) pattern that persisted in the Pacific for much of
2006 has become less intense over the
last few weeks. Late summer and autumn remain a key time for the
development of climate patterns such as El Nino and
La Nina.
At the end of December soil water conditions and seasonal rainfall outlook
indicate a low chance of above median
sorghum yield during the
2006/07 summer growing season for most of the North East Australian
cropping region. There is variation in the
outlook between local regions. Most of Southern Queensland shows below to
very much below average crop yield
expectations. Across most of Central Queensland crop yield expectations
show close to the long-term average. Likely
sorghum yields are difficult to determine this early in the crop season.
Widespread average to above average rainfall is needed to improve the
currently poor crop outlook for most of the
summer cropping region due to the accumulated soil moisture deficits.
STATE OVERVIEW:
The north of the state remains generally in fairly good condition and
pastures have responded well where there has
been sufficient rain. The southern two thirds of the state is more
variable. Rain in the droughted areas of the
State remained patchy and insufficient to overcome the rainfall deficit of
the last few years although there were
several isolated good falls in excess of 100mm. For some areas this rain
has been a useful follow up to earlier
summer rain. Crops planted in drought declared areas are relying on follow
up rain to finish the crop as soil
moisture levels remain depleted. Overall stock remain in good condition
throughout the state with the exceptions of
stock continuing to slip in condition in areas that have received no rain
and also areas where rain has only
recently fallen and the pasture has not yet had time to produce bulk.
Lactating stock across the state are also
slipping in condition as is normal for this time of year. Many producers
that missed the rain continue to destock.
In the Wet Tropics banana production has returned to pre cyclone levels
after several months of recovery. Cooler
conditions across much of the state have allowed pasture growth to
continue. Access to drought feed has become very
limited and very expensive resulting in producers assessing other options.
As at 31 December 2006 there are 71 shires and 4 part shires drought
declared under State processes, which is
equivalent to 62.5% of the land area of the State. There are also 113
Individually Droughted Properties
(IDPs) in a further 17 shires as at 5 January 2007.
REGIONAL SUMMARIES:
North Region: There were no large rainfall events recorded across the
region during the month but some rainfall was
recorded in all districts.
Pasture responded with fresh growth and further rain will be needed to
ensure seedling recruitment. Stock are in
reasonable condition and calving is well progressed across the region. The
sugar harvest finished this month with
one mill crushing right up to Christmas due to rain delays early in the
season. Overall tonnages were reasonable but
Commercial Cane Sugar (CCS) was generally down due to the wet harvest
conditions across the region. In the Wet
Tropics banana production has returned to pre cyclone levels after several
months of recovery.
West Region: Good falls were received in patches mainly on the east of the
region with Barcaldine recording the
highest for the area with 118.3mm. Blackall received 66.6mm, Hughenden
60.8mm, Charleville received 48.6mm and
Longreach received 44mm. Other centres across West region received some
welcome falls with 26.4mm at Quilpie and
31.6mm at Cunnamulla. Although rain was received in the south and central
west, producers not receiving rain
continue to destock. The north of the region is still in reasonably good
condition although pasture is haying off
and is expected to continue to decline unless rain occurs. The total
pasture growth for the whole of West Region is
less than 10kg DM/ha.
There are some areas to the north east of Murweh and Tambo shires ranging
from 20 to 200kg DM/ha.
Central Region: The region received rainfall varying from 25mm to over
50-75 mm following some early December rain. These lighter falls have
assisted groundcover to establish prior to any
further heavier falls which may cause runoff and erosion. Calving has
mainly finished so the pasture response will
allow useful production and assist breeders to cycle. Callide Dawson
district received up to 50mm in December
allowing some sorghum planting to occur although many of these crops
struggled by the end of the month from hot
weather and not enough soil moisture. Rain since has generally saved most
of these crops. Some small areas of
sorghum and mungbeans have been recently planted. Hay sales have slowed as
the rain has reduced the demand for
grassy hay. The Central Highlands had patchy rain although some good falls
were reported in the Capella district.
South-East Region: Rainfall has varied across the South East, with the
exception of the southern areas, the region
received below average rainfall.
South Region: The region recorded variable rainfall during the month with
the Eastern Downs generally receiving
better falls of between 50 to 100mm. The remainder of the region reported
falls of between 10 to 30mm.
Supplementary feeding continues to rise as the availability of pastures are
limited.
LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES:
North Region: Few areas in north received above average rain for December
although there were scattered falls of up
to 200mm across the Mareeba district and useful rain of between 40 to 50mm
in the Chillagoe and Laura districts.
Early storms and lower daily temperatures across the region have enabled
conditions to remain stable for the month
and lessened the impact on available fodder and water. Overall both the
quality and quantity of the pasture is well
above average for this time of year with pastures generally dry in the
southern Gulf and Townsville areas. Pasture
is increasing in nutritional value where there has been recent rain and
decreasing where there has not been rain.
West of the southern coastal strip there are generally shortages of both
feed and water and pasture has short to
average height. Some producers are reporting fodder shortages in the
Charters Towers, and southern inland areas of
the region. Livestock range from score 1 to 4 depending on location and
time rain was received. Across the Southern
Gulf stock are generally in score 2 and 3 condition which is good for this
time of year. Cows with calves are
reducing in condition and requiring supplementation which is normal for
this time of year. Urea based supplements
with a protein derivative are generally being used more by producers to
improve the animal performance from
available pasture.
Stock condition appears good although cows with calves are probably most at
risk of losing condition. Water storages
across the southern gulf are good for this time of year. Surface water
supplies have reduced as daily temperatures
increase. Bore supplies appear adequate.
West Region: Beneficial storm rain was received around Hughenden and in
patches of the eastern parts of the region
with the highest at Barcaldine. Associated with these storms has been some
property damage through wind and hail. In
the north of the region pasture quality and quantity is generally good.
Some rain this summer has seen parts of the
north with improving nutrition quality through green pick. The southern two
third is much patchier with rain and
subsequent pasture response.
For instance light showers have produced some green pick in areas north and
west of Boulia as well as in Winton and
North of Aramac and Muttaburra have good quality pasture with dry patches
through the area.
Storms to the north and North West of Blackall and Tambo have enabled
buffel pasture to respond although follow up
rain is required to maintain growth. Ares that have received no rain have
pastures affected by hot dry conditions
with very little dry matter available to stock.
The south west is lacking in both pasture quality and quantity and
livestock are falling in condition. Stock while
generally strong have been losing condition where there has been no rain or
not enough pasture bulk has yet grown.
The exception to this is in the north where dry cattle are still holding
condition. In the southern two thirds of
the region where there has been none or only recent rain stock continue to
lose condition. Cows with calves have
lost condition across the region due to the high temperatures late in
November and the reducing feed quality.
Stocking rates for the majority of the south and central west generally
remain low which has enabled stock to
maintain reasonable condition. The cost of supplementary feeds has
generally been high making drought feeding
uneconomic. Drought feeding is still occurring in the central and south
west and some producers are realising that
drought feeding is not viable and are selling off core breeders. Cattle
condition generally ranges from score 1 to
3. Across the southern two thirds of the region most properties have
partially or totally destocked or commenced
drought feeding. Many producers have offloaded their young stock and only
drought feeding core breeders that cannot
to be placed on agistment. Livestock movements to sale have generally been
limited leading up to Christmas. Stock
are still moving out of the central west
district and going to feedlots, sale or meatworks.
South-East Region: Livestock condition continues to vary widely throughout
the region. However most stock are now
maintaining condition.
Stock movements have been minimal over the Christmas/New Year period.
Supplementation and drought feeding of stock has slowed in areas where rain
has fallen although water continues to
be an issue. Short green feed is providing most stock with adequate short
term nutrition. There is generally little
pasture quantity where pastures are being grazed.
South Region: Cattle condition currently ranges between score 2 to 3.
Lower than average pasture and forage crop production has helped little to
improve body condition. Producers
continue to reduce herd and flock numbers to ensure survival or production
through the summer months. Some stock has
been agisted to the Hughenden district. The continued drought conditions
have caused an increase in supplementary
feeding throughout the region. The bulk of the existing pasture is
generally low in quantity and quality. There has
been some response to rain that fell earlier in the month, however, the
heat and lack of any follow up rain limited
production. Water carting operations have increased.
CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE:
North Region: On the Tablelands ground preparation is occurring for
planting of summer crops of peanuts and maize.
Planting of legume seed crops is underway and perennial pasture seed crops
such as Rhodes have been planted with
harvesting planned for January. In the wet tropics sunshine and warm
weather has provided ideal growing conditions
for bananas and cyclone affected farms are generally at pre cyclone
production levels. Paw Paw growers are planting
and a reasonable lychee crop is being harvested. Mango picking is underway
across the region and fruit quality
appears good although fruit set has varied with some areas lighter than
last year. In the Bowen district the
vegetable cropping season is finished and cover crops have been planted.
The northern crushing season finished at
the end of December. In the Burdekin district the crush of 8.02 M/tonne
crop finished up with CCS holding up
reasonably well. In the Herbert district the crush finished with 4.91
M/tonnes crush with an average CCS of 12.65.
Tonnages were up on expectations due to continued growth throughout the
season from ongoing rainfall although this
resulted in lower CCS values. In other districts across the region the
plant and ratoon crops are generally growing
well.
South-East Region: Rain received during the month has benefited many corn,
sorghum and peanut crops. Further
rainfall is required fro reasonable yeilds. Some crops have already been
harvested for stock feed. Hail and wind
damage was reported on several properties around the Eumundi/Kilcoy Road,
Lake Macdonald and Pomona areas as a
result of a severe storm mid December. Crops affected were bamboo, lettuce
and lychee. Fruit set on custard apple
crops look promising. The crop has benefited from cooler weather which has
slowed vegetative growth and improved
fruit set/development. Lychee harvesting is expected to begin in January.
South Region: Insufficient rain in the western areas limited most planting
opportunities although early planted
crops in the Eastern Downs are generally looking good. Current soil
conditions and seasonal rainfall outlook
indicate that a below average sorghum yield may be expected for the region.
The frost received on the Darling Downs
last month has set back the production of sorghum. Areas on the eastern
Downs that had useful rainfall have
generally recovered and early planted crops are doing well. The majority of
the dryland cotton has been lost and now
ploughed-in. Grain sorghum plantings around the Border Rivers are below
what would be expected to be planted for
this time of the year. Overall there has been very little if any grain
sorghum planted in the Maranoa/Balonne
region. Subsoil moisture is low and there has been minimal rain received
this summer. There were reports of only 1%
of cotton planted in the Dirranbandi area and 20% in the St. George
irrigation area. Across the Western Downs
district there was generally insufficient moisture to plant cereal crops.
Soil moisture profiles will require
substantial replenishment for this year's summer crop planting.
Hail affected lettuce, tomatoes, apples and stonefruit has occurred in the
Granite Belt. Lettuce was worst affected
with estimates of over $1 million in damage. As most lettuce in Queensland
is generally grown in the Stanthorpe
district at this time of year, this is expected to affect current prices.
In the Pozieres region, apples not under
netting were badly damaged. Rainfall varied from 30 mm to 100mm across the
region.
Prices for most crops are looking average to above average.
RAINFALL (figure in brackets indicates average)
North Region: Babinda received 509mm (331) Cairns A/P 95mm (190), Malanda
n/a (146), Ingham 103mm (217), Innisfail
364mm (n/a), Townsville 56mm (148), Tully 283mm (297), Bowen 15mm (n/a),
Charters Towers 35mm (n/a), Georgetown
161mm (112) and Normanton A/P 35mm (n/a) and Proserpine A/P 52mm (n/a).
West Region: Birdsville A/P n/a (17), Boulia 32mm (28), Windorah 39mm (27),
Cloncurry 21mm (58), Mt Isa 19mm (62),
Longreach 49mm (51), Muttaburra 30mm (59), Winton 25mm (51) and Charleville
57mm (53).
Central Region: Alpha recorded 77 (85), Clermont 57mm (101), Springsure
62mm (107), Mackay 89mm (197), Yaamba 72mm
(131), Biloela A/P 75mm (102), Mt Larcom 50mm (150), Gladstone 56mm (140),
Theodore 58mm (102), and Yeppoon 30mm
(n/a).
South-East Region: Eidsvold recorded 48mm (86), Gayndah 79mm (n/a),
Mundubbera 64mm (100), Esk 136mm (111), Kilkivan
119mm (124), Kingaroy 99mm (n/a), Nanango 71mm (108), Proston 45mm (108),
and Beaudesert 21mm (128). On the coastal
fringe Bundaberg received 99mm (138), Maryborough 73mm (134), Nambour 83mm
(180) and Tewantin 100mm (n/a).
South Region: Clifton 73mm (109), Dalby 58mm (n/a), Goondiwindi 12mm
(n/a), Inglewood n/a (86), Oakey 95mm (93),
Pittsworth 131mm (104), Stanthorpe 19mm (95), Toowoomba AP 70mm (n/a),
Warwick 24mm (n/a), Roma 30mm (n/a), Miles
55mm (n/a), St George A/P 13mm (n/a) and Taroom 51mm (104).
WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES
North Region: Water storages are in reasonable supply for this time of the
year.
West Region: Surface water continues to recede rapidly with a number of
dams and waterholes now becoming boggy. In
those areas where rain did fall some rivers/creeks have seen a slight run.
This has mainly been in the south west
areas.
South-East Region: Water continues to be an issue in the region.
South Region: Stream flow remains below average across most catchments
throughout the region with no general
recovery in the aquifers due to the continuing dry conditions. Water
storage levels remain low in the upper
Condamine and Macintyre-Dumaresq River systems.
Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY
Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454
National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)
 |
The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries. |
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