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07 Aug 2008

OUTLOOK:

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has continued to fluctuate and shifted in value from plus 11.8 at the end of January to minus 0.5 as of the 28th February placing it in a "Rapidly Falling" phase. A return to sustained positive monthly SOI values would help provide the basis for a widespread improvement in seasonal conditions. Autumn is a key time for monitoring any developing trends in both the SOI and sea surface temperatures (SST).

Based on a 'Rapidly Falling' SOI phase at the end of February and historical rainfall records there is less than a 50% chance of getting above median rainfall during March to May across most of Queensland. The lowest probabilities (20 to 40%) of above median rainfall can be found throughout northern and coastal regions. There is a marginally higher 50 to 70% chance of getting above median rainfall during March to May for the western Darling Downs.

As expected an active phase of the MJO was evident in late February/early March. This coincided with some welcome rainfall with the larger totals mainly confined to the eastern half of the state. Information from the Bureau of Meteorology highlights that depending on location rainfall totals in excess of 50 mm to more than 600 mm are still needed before average falls for our normal "wet season" (October to April) are recorded.

The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a band of low air pressure originating on the east coast of central Africa travelling eastward across the Indian Ocean and northern Australia roughly every 30 to 60 days. Research has shown it to be a useful indicator of the timing, but not amounts, of potential rainfall events.

STATE OVERVIEW:

The majority of all districts across Queensland recorded well below average rainfall during February. While there have been some scattered showers from isolated storm activity, this has failed to produce any significant runoff which has been beneficial to producers. Coastal areas generally appear to have fared the best. Overall livestock appear to holding well considering the current dry conditions although in some areas where pastures are poor livestock are starting to slip. There are currently 61 shires and 7 part shires drought declared under State processes, which is equivalent to 60.6% of the land area of the State. There are also 133 Individually Droughted Properties (IDPs) in a further 17 shires.

REGIONAL SUMMARIES:

North Region: Apart from scattered storms the region has remained relatively dry with rainfall in the lowest 10% for many of the recording stations. Overall the northern wet season (October to April) to date has been below average. Up to 200mm has been recorded across inland grazing areas and up to 1000mm in coastal parts of the wet tropics. The impact of this has been varied due to some reasonable storms giving good relief in areas lucky enough to be under them. The vegetable cropping season has commenced in the Bowen district with uncertainty of water allocations for the coming year. Announcement on water allocations is expected in the last week of March. Livestock remain in fair condition in response the normal seasonal growth in pastures. How long they stay this way depends on when the wet season finishes and most would be hoping for more rain yet.

West Region: Across the region rain received has resulted in a well below average February. Pasture growth has dropped down to less than 10kg DM/ha for the majority of the region, with parts of Mt Isa, Cloncurry, McKinlay, Richmond, Winton, and Boulia shires continuing to have growth in the 20 - 50 DM/Ha. Shires in south west remain dry and continue to deteriorate as these areas have not received beneficial rain. Dry winds combined with high temperatures and evaporation is consistent across the region. Rainfall was scattered across the region, with the north western areas receiving the most. Much of this rain was received in short bursts and as a result has generally been of little or no benefit in many areas of the region.

Central Region: Most areas received little useful rainfall during the month. Jericho shire received 51.8 mm which is just below average for the month but once again it was patchy. This has been reflected in other shires such as Banana where there were some useful falls although they did vary greatly within short distances. Mackay received some useful grass/crop rain but there was no runoff. The hinterland district is very dry and stock in this area are generally in poor condition. The majority of the summer crop harvesting is now complete in the Dawson/ Callide area.

South-East Region: The beginning of February saw storm activity throughout the majority of the region and while some areas recorded good falls the rain received was very patchy. There was minimal run off and dam levels still remain low. The hot dry conditions experienced before and after the storms have resulted in stressed crops and pastures although given the current environment pastures are surviving reasonably well. Good rainfall will be needed prior to winter to ensure fodder during the colder months. Livestock condition generally remains good and this can be attributed to the management practices being employed by the majority of producers. Stocking rates are being maintained at conservative levels taking account of the feed available.

South Region: Falls between 25 to 100mm were received this month although the best falls were generally recorded along the southern fringe of the region. The majority of the region only received 25 to 50mm. Pasture response has declined from late December with the worst affected area being within the western extremities and northern districts. The majority of all other areas are experiencing average pasture response. Livestock are generally in good condition except in those areas depleted of pasture. The Granite Belt is experiencing good conditions where there has been dam recharge and growers are experiencing good prices for fruit and vegetables.

LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES:

North Region: The region is generally maintaining the pattern set by last month although extremely hot conditions has caused pasture condition to drop. Generally across the region livestock have started to improve slightly as feed quality and quantity has increased after recent rains. Pastures in most areas have responded well to the recent rains and combined with some good growing conditions has assisted in increasing the quality and quantity in most areas. Surface waters have generally been replenished from the January rainfall and at present seem to be adequate. Bore water supplies also appear to be adequate. In the Mareeba stock district rainfall has been patchy, however the country to the north and west of the Mitchell River is holding. In general February rainfall across the Normanton district was well below average however stock are generally looking good for this time of the year. Pastures have started to hay off earlier than expected. The Innisfail and Malanda stock districts have received good rain. The coastal areas of the Bowen district generally appear in good condition. Cattle across the Georgetown district are generally in good condition with most cattle averaging score 4. The quality of the pastures is still fairly high, although the quantity varies across the district. Overall there is a reasonable amount of grass with the exception of a few areas where the pasture height is low for this time of year. An early response received in January across the Charters Towers district has begun to waiver as pasture grass begins to hay off as daily temperatures increase. Livestock condition is generally holding in most areas in line with pasture quality and quantity. Some breeders are requiring additional supplementary feeding to ensure protein levels are maintained.

West Region: Cattle throughout the region are in reasonable condition considering the current dry conditions. This is generally attributed to lower stocking numbers in the majority of the region. Sheep in the southern half of the region remain in good condition although numbers are also below average due to destocking. Livestock movements around the region have been limited as agistment is becoming harder to source. Drought feeding continues throughout the region with large amounts of hay, cotton seed, loose licks and blocks being used to feed and maintain the current condition of remaining animals. Scattered showers and storms have produced green pick in some areas although weed has been quick to establish while natural grasses struggle. In the north west districts rainfall received has mainly been in the form of storms, which means that some areas have received excellent falls and many other areas have recorded average to mostly below average falls. There have been some scattered showers and storms, with good rain in the north/north east and eastern portion of the Richmond and Flinders Shires. However properties in the south/south west and north western portions have only received patchy rain resulting in a small amount of pasture response with minimal benefit. Breeders are generally improving with the average condition being from store to forward store. The main movement of cattle appears to be a result of livestock returning home from agistment as feed cuts out. These trends are similar in the central west and south west areas.

Central Region: Rainfall has been patchy across the whole region and this has been reflected in the amount of available ground cover. Extreme temperatures have reduced the effectiveness of the rainfall. Livestock are generally in fair to good condition although weight gains are decreasing in dry stock and weight loss is occurring in breeders. Breeders in the Nebo area are in poor condition. Weaning is being carried out in some districts and drought feeding is taking place in the drier districts. Cows that are in better condition are a general indication that no calf is present and fertility rates may not be good in many herds. Some supplementary feeding is happening in the Jericho shire and the drier parts of other shires although most producers are resisting the need to supplement at this time of year. On the Central Highlands most of the area has received some early rain but with no substantial January/February rain pastures have seeded and dried off. Areas that did receive later rain are being affected by the high temperatures.

South-East Region: Overall stock condition appears good and holding well with sale yards seeing an increase in the number of lighter poorer conditioned cows being sold. In some areas around Gatton, stock is described There are generally few stock movements to and from agistment as producers are either selling stock or spreading their herds over their whole properties. While some areas are using dry feed supplementation at this stage there appears to be very little drought feeding. Properties that have been under storm rain have fared reasonably well and this is evident as pasture quality and quantity is holding up well. Those areas that did not get sufficient rainfall from the storms have suffered from the hot and dry month.

South Region: Stocking numbers have not generally increased greatly as high cattle prices have limited some producer's ability to restock. Livestock are generally in good condition except for the more western areas. Current pasture availability has alleviated the requirement to drought feed in most areas, however, in the south west portion of the Balonne shire stock feeding is occurring. Pastures response has declined with the worst affected areas in the western extremities of the region and northern districts. Pasture response is reflected by the variable rainfall associated with recent storm activity. The Border River districts have fared better then most and this appears to have been the trend for the last couple of years. To ensure sufficient pasture is produced to carry stock through the ensuing cooler months additional falls are required. Pasture growth overall is average to above when compared to historical records.

CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE:

North Region: Lakeland has had good rain and maize and other crops are growing well. Harvesting of pasture seed from Rhodes, Gatton Panic, Setaria and Brachiara sp. crops has occurred and yield and quality were poor due to limited rainfall. Legume seed crops are in the ground and growing well. Planting has commenced in the Bowen district for the 2006 vegetable cropping season. Many growers are still waiting for an announcement on water allocations, which will be in late March, before making a decision on planting. The cane crop is growing well. Growers continue with some weed control. This years crop may be down on last years record due to the delayed harvest in 2005 and the subsequent shortened growing season for ratoon crops and delays in planting.

Central Region: Extreme temperatures and minimal rainfall have left the majority of the region dry. While the summer cropping harvest is complete in the Callide/ Dawson the cotton picking has just started in the Emerald area. The Callide Dawson continues to experience some very hot weather with little rain to compensate. Storms have provided relief in parts of the Dawson, although many have been quite isolated. The central and northern parts of the Callide valley are starting to look particularly dry. The majority of the summer crop harvest is now complete although mungbeans have not performed well for many dryland growers, with the extreme temperatures thought to be the main cause of flower abortion which has caused low yields. Sorghum crops have fared better where wide row configurations were used. As the summer crop planting window has now effectively closed some growers will be waiting to see if good rain is received in the next 4 - 6 weeks prior to planting any winter crops in the area. The high temperatures that have persisted in the Central Highlands over the previous months have cooled off allowing crops to progress as expected for this time of the year. Early planted cotton crops have been defoliated and pickers are expected to start this week. Any later planted crops generally have between one to two irrigations to go although most of the cotton has just started to open the earliest bolls.

South-East Region: In general rainfall received in the south east coastal region during February was good. There were several good soaking rain events but no excessively intense falls. Avocado growers are expecting good crop returns in 2006 for both the region and Queensland as a whole. Pineapple growers are busy at this time of the year with harvesting the summer crop and carrying out replanting. Macadamias are shaping up well and the very first nuts have begun to drop on the early varieties. Harvesting of these varieties will begin at the end of March. It is expected that custard apples in the south east will produce good yields in 2006. The warm, humid weather during flowering last spring has helped maximize pollination and fruit set. This year's cane crop got off to a good start with storm rains in October-November 2005. However, the December to February rainfall has been patchy and consequently irrigating has been essential, especially with the constantly hot conditions.

South Region: Conditions over recent months have generally been hot and dry. There was insufficient rainfall in February to improve yield prospects and later planted sorghum crops have fared the worst. The rainfall over summer has been irregular which has been reflected in crop production. Insect pressure has affected cotton production on the Darling Downs and the spread appears to be associated with increased storm activity. There are crops which have failed in the northern and central downs as a result of the current conditions. Cotton plantings have been limited in the Border Rivers area due to the restriction of irrigation water. Large areas of sorghum planting have taken place and while rain has interrupted there are areas where there is a better than average chance of recording above average yields. The Maranoa region has been very hot and the dry conditions have dramatically reduced yield prospects. Early planted crops should go to harvest, although yields may be lower than expected. Many producers have decided to store soil moisture for winter plantings. The Granite Belt district has recorded a good season apart from a few severe storms with rainfall varying between 50 to 100 mm for February. While the rain has had a negative effect on the sugar content of the grapes most growers are generally experiencing excellent prices for vegetables.

RAINFALL (figure in brackets indicates average)

North Region: Babinda received 434mm (738) Cairns A/P 277mm (422), Malanda 115mm (286), Ingham 257mm (410), Innisfail 248mm (n/a), Townsville 15mm (232), Tully n/a (n/a), Bowen 9mm (n/a), Charters Towers 36mm (n/a), Georgetown 71mm (208) and Normanton A/P n/a (n/a) and Proserpine A/P 53mm (n/a).

West Region: Birdsville A/P n/a (21), Boulia 7mm (41), Windorah 89mm (45), Cloncurry n/a (n/a), Mt Isa 102mm (86), Longreach 94mm (69), Muttaburra 96mm (71), Winton 40mm (80) and Charleville 63mm (55).

Central Region: Alpha recorded 67mm (81), Clermont 47mm (104), Springsure 79mm (113), Mackay 95mm (302), Yaamba 11mm (127), Biloela A/P n/a (n/a), Mt Larcom 18mm (129), Gladstone 35mm (140), Theodore 16mm (90), and Yeppoon 41mm (n/a).

South-East Region: Eidsvold recorded 13mm (81), Gayndah 6mm (87), Mundubbera 32mm (74), Esk 59mm (100), Kilkivan 30mm (94), Kingaroy 16mm (n/a), Nanango 27mm (86), Proston 88mm (77), and Beaudesert 93mm (109). On the coastal fringe Bundaberg received 92mm (148), Maryborough 30mm (163), Nambour 166mm (224) and Tewantin n/a (n/a).

South Region: Clifton 107mm (87), Dalby 29mm (n/a), Goondiwindi 72mm (n/a), Inglewood n/a (68), Oakey 80mm (84), Pittsworth 48mm (76), Stanthorpe 75mm (81), Toowoomba AP 52mm (n/a), Warwick 55mm (n/a), Roma 23mm (n/a), Miles 138mm (n/a), St George A/P 6mm (n/a) and Taroom 66mm (76).

WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES

North Region: Surface water across the region generally appears to be adequate after being replenished from the January rainfall. Bore supplies also appear to be holding.

West Region: No real problem, as the majority of the water in the region is artesian. There are small amounts of surface water available in areas that have received showers in the last month.

Central Region: Rainfall totals remain below the monthly averages for many centres. Most streams experienced recessional flows, with only some minor flows recorded throughout the region.

South East Region: Stock water in most areas is low and reaching critical levels. There is increasingly heavy reliance on declining groundwater supplies where available. Some areas have seen some stream flows from storm rain but this was insufficient to replenish the larger dams.

South Region: While there appears to be adequate water supplies in most areas there has been no major streamflows for the month and storages capacities have fallen from previous month.

Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY

Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454

National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)

The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries.