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07 Aug 2008

OUTLOOK:

Based on a "Rapidly Rising" Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) phase at the end of January there is a 50 to 70% chance of getting above median rainfall across parts of north west and central west Queensland during February to April. For the remainder of the state there is a 30 to 50% chance of getting above median rainfall. An improvement in the seasonal outlook would be expected if positive values of the SOI persist throughout the month.

The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a band of low air pressure originating on the east coast of central Africa travelling eastward across the Indian Ocean and northern Australia roughly every 30 to 60 days. Research has shown it to be a useful indicator of the timing, but not amounts, of potential rainfall events. The MJO was evident across northern Australia in mid-January with the onset of the monsoon across northern Australia and some rain in southern Queensland although this was largely confined to eastern regions. Based on a timing of 40 to 50 days it would next be expected in late February.

STATE OVERVIEW:

Generally January was an extremely hot month for many areas across most of the state with temperatures above 40*C in many parts of Western Queensland. Water continues to be an issue for some areas. North Queensland experienced a monsoon trough that moved down into the northern tropics late in the month. Generally, coastal areas across Queensland benefited from some rain whilst inland the rain was patchy and of limited value. Pasture and stock conditions are variable across the state.

There are currently 61 shires and 7 part shires drought declared under State processes, which is equivalent to 60.6% of the land area of the State. There are also 126 Individually Droughted Properties (IDPs) in a further 18 shires.

REGIONAL SUMMARIES:

North Region: After a dry start to the year the monsoon trough moved down into the northern tropics late in the month and delivered widespread rain across the region. The arrival of the trough signalled the start of the northern wet season which was preceded by a very hot and dry December. Generally, most districts received average to above average rainfall for the month with some minor flooding occurring in coastal areas around Bowen and Ayr. Pastures have responded well as would be expected with rainfall at this stage of the growing season. Generally, livestock are starting to improve in line with the slight increase in protein levels of pasture grass. Plantings of summer crops on the Tablelands were delayed due to dry conditions early in the season but now are all in the ground and growing well. Tropical fruit crops and cane are experiencing good production and growth. Overall a good start to the wet season.

West Region: The Cloncurry and Julia Creek districts received some good isolated storm rains in January of up to 150mm in some areas. The rest of the region received some scattered storms and showers which has generally been of little benefit. Generally, stock condition has deteriorated in most areas as a result of the declining pasture quality and quantity. Stocking rates are low and are continuing to decrease.

Central Region: Generally, most of the Central Region received slightly below average rainfall for January 2006. The rain that was received was very patchy and temperatures have been high therefore increasing evaporation rates. Areas that did receive above average rainfall experienced heavy storm rain. The northern coastal areas were lucky enough to experience the monsoon trough. Stock and pasture conditions across the area is variable.

South-East Region: January saw the continuation of the hot weather interspersed with storm events. These storms were patchy in both location and volume of rainfall received. The coastal parts of the region have received good rainfall and as such crops and pastures are faring well. Further inland the rainfall was more intermittent and crops and pastures suffered from the hot temperatures. Cattle condition is generally good to very good for most of the region. Major water storages and aquifers are still low.

South Region: There was patchy rain in January. The best falls were recorded in the eastern areas. Generally pasture growth is average for this time of year and livestock have responded favourably. Hot, dry conditions have dramatically reduced the yield potential of some crops especially in the northern and central Darling Downs. There were some storms experienced that caused damage to crops and infrastructure in the Granite Belt area.

LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES:

North Region: As the region has experienced some very useful falls of rain the pasture response has been encouraging with most areas showing improvement from the previous month. Generally, livestock are starting to improve in line with the slight increase in protein levels of pasture grass after rain. Prices remain high as supplies of certain lines of stock become difficult to source. Most properties reduced stock numbers with the decline in seasonal conditions late in 2005. In some areas breeders are requiring additional supplementary feed to ensure protein levels are maintained.

West Region: Generally, pasture response in the areas that have received rain has been slow. Any Mitchell grass that has grown has been quickly eaten off by stock. Some areas particularly in the Cloncurry, Julia Creek and Mt Isa districts are looking quite green however this colour is mainly from weeds or low quality pasture. Generally, pastures in the Charleville, Quilpie and Cunnamulla districts are of poor quality and quantity. Stock condition in some areas is quite poor. Most properties are carrying below normal stocking rates. Limited agistment is available and generally the majority of producers are supplementary feeding their existing stock.

Central Region: Pasture and stock conditions throughout the Central region are variable. Generally, in areas which have seen rain the pastures are of good quality and quantity, although high temperatures are now having some effect. Pastures in the areas that have received rain have good growth and stock are keeping to these areas and rapidly grazing the new growth. Many producers in dry areas who usually sell fat cattle are now contemplating selling through store sales or to feedlots rather than through fat sales or direct to meatworks.. Supplementary feeding is still occurring in the areas that have missed out on good rainfall.

South-East Region: Livestock is generally in good to very good condition. The areas that received the patchy storm rain have experienced good pasture growth. In the areas where little rainfall has been received the hot dry conditions have deteriorated the quality of the pastures and many have dried off or gone to seed. The buoyant cattle market that is currently being experienced is making restocking at reasonable prices difficult.

South Region: Pasture response during January is directly related to the variable rainfall associated with the patchy storm activity. Pasture conditions are average to above average. The western part of the region is currently experiencing decreasing pastures in both quality and quantity. Generally, producers are continuing to keep their stock numbers down and some producers who wish to restock are finding it difficult with the high cattle prices. The areas that have average or above pasture conditions are now seeing a more favourable stock body condition. The pasture availability has alleviated requirements to drought feed in most areas except for the western part of the region where drought feeding is occurring.

CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE:

North Region: Planting of summer crops of peanuts and maize has now finished on the Tablelands. The dry start to the wet season delayed plantings but crops are now in the ground. The delayed plantings may have affected the amount of area sown to peanuts. Maize crops appear to be growing well. Grass seed producers are making preparations to cut and fertilize their winter flowering crops such as floren blue grass and callide rhodes. On the Tablelands the mango season continues with later maturing varieties still to be harvested. In the wet tropics growing conditions for tropical crops has been good with banana production and quality high. Widespread rainfall late in the month has given growers who use irrigation a reprieve for a couple of weeks.

Central Region: Rainfall has been quite patchy for the month of January. The sorghum and mungbean crops in the Callide Valley have struggled through the very hot weather in the Christmas/New Year period, with yields dependant on their growth stage during the hot weather and if they have received rain since. Crops planted in December may also have poor yields if they have not had any follow up rain and do not receive rain in the next month. River irrigators are able to access water as significant flows have occurred in the Fitzroy River.

South-East Region: Crops are in good condition in the areas where adequate rain fell over the Christmas, New Year period. The North Burnett has enjoyed excellent rainfall which has benefited pastures. However, other areas have received limited falls and some crops are declining. Around 50% of corn and peanut crops are rapidly declining. Pineapple producers continued with harvesting and good rainfall for macadamia crops has reduced the stress on the trees, which is conducive to oil accumulation in the nut which takes place in January and February. Some damage to horticultural crops in the Gatton/Forest Hill areas resulted from the more severe storms.

South Region: Hot, dry conditions have dramatically reduced the yield potential of some crops especially in the Northern and Central Darling Downs. Cotton plantings in the Border Rivers area have been limited because of the restrictions on irrigation water. A hail storm hit the Grante Belt in early in January which caused some damage to hail nets, vines, vegetables and infrastructure. Prices for most vegetables are currently above average. Generally, the apple producers have just commenced picking and are currently receiving good prices.

RAINFALL (figure in brackets indicates average)

North Region: Babinda received 506mm (639) Cairns A/P 395mm (n/a), Malanda 132mm (267), Ingham 371mm (398), Innisfail 141mm (n/a), Townsville 451mm (244), Tully n/a (n/a), Bowen 311mm (n/a), Charters Towers 122mm (n/a), Georgetown 264mm (227) and Normanton A/P n/a (n/a) and Proserpine A/P 314mm (n/a).

West Region: Birdsville A/P n/a (43), Boulia 22mm (56), Windorah 0mm (40), Cloncurry n/a (n/a), Mt Isa 64mm (96), Longreach 14mm (67), Muttaburra 23mm (91), Winton 30mm (78) and Charleville 70mm (22).

Central Region: Alpha recorded 29mm (102), Clermont 12mm (102), Springsure 46mm (101), Mackay 218mm (268), Yaamba 62mm (120), Biloela A/P n/a (n/a), Mt Larcom 88mm (138), Gladstone 148mm (150), Theodore n/a (100), and Yeppoon 200mm (n/a).

South-East Region: Eidsvold recorded 37mm (101), Gayndah 37mm (117), Mundubbera 17mm (105), Esk 78mm (132), Kilkivan 26mm (142), Kingaroy 74mm (n/a), Nanango 116mm (110), Proston 9mm (95), and Beaudesert 172mm (123). On the coastal fringe Bundaberg received 126mm (202), Maryborough 123mm (164), Nambour 372mm (276) and Tewantin n/a (n/a).

South Region: Clifton 50mm (94), Dalby 140mm (n/a), Goondiwindi 58mm (n/a), Inglewood n/a (82), Oakey 106mm (83), Pittsworth 113 (85), Stanthorpe 124mm (105), Toowoomba AP 84mm (n/a), Warwick 44mm (n/a), Roma 2mm (n/a), Miles 19mm (n/a), St George A/P 43mm (n/a) and Taroom 52mm (94).

WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES

North Region: The arrival of the trough signalled the start of the northern wet season that replenished surface water supplies.

West Region: The majority of water available is artesian. Storm rain has filled some dams in the north of the region.

Central Region: Water storages for Central Queensland remain low. Some small flows were recorded with water harvesting opportunities becoming available in the Upper Dawson, Lower MacKenzie, Fitzroy and Pioneer Rivers.

South East Region: Most major water storages and aquifers are low.

South Region: Stock water supplies are adequate in most areas with some isolated surface problems. However, there are reports of critical shortages in the Crows Nest and Rosalie Shires.

Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY

Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454

National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)

The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries.