SITUATION AS AT 31 JULY 2006
OUTLOOK:
The monthly value of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) remained
relatively stable through to the end of July (minus 7.48) putting the
SOI in a 'Consistently Near Zero' phase. Based on this phase at the end
of the month there is a 40 to 50% chance of getting above median
rainfall throughout most of Queensland during August to October. The
exception is for the region running from the central Queensland coast to
the peninsula where there is a lower 20 to 40% chance of getting above
median rainfall.
Further analysis of historical rainfall data and the SOI indicates that
rainfall for Queensland during August to October is more likely to be
close to median than well above median. It is worth noting however that
Queensland is in its 'dry season' with August and September having the
lowest median monthly rainfall totals for most locations in the state.
An interesting feature of recent synoptic weather charts shows that the
latitude of the sub-tropical ridge of high pressure is further south
than normal for this time of year. This has the potential to increase
shower activity for Queensland through increased flow of moist easterly
winds especially across northern and coastal regions.
STATE OVERVIEW:
Overall most recording stations across the State have received some
rain. This however has varied greatly with the lower falls still
received in the Southern regions in contrast to the North region that
has exceeded the monthly averages. Overall, livestock remain in average
condition. Pastures remain patchy with some short green pick available
although this was dependant on properties being under the rain. Drought
feeding has generally been minimal except in the harder hit areas. This
may be reflective of lower stocking rates on the majority of properties.
Water still remains a concern for most regions with the exception
generally being across the north region and the coastal districts. There
are currently 62 shires and 5 part shires drought declared under State
processes, which is equivalent to 60.2% of the land area of the State.
There are also 206 Individually Droughted Properties (IDPs) in a further
17 shires.
REGIONAL SUMMARIES:
North Region: An upper level trough passed through the region in mid
July delivering some good falls of rain. Long term July monthly rainfall
records were broken at Croydon, Cape Tribulation and Gilberton as well
as a few daily record rainfall totals across the gulf and peninsula.
Overall most recording stations across the region exceeded their monthly
averages. Continuing wet conditions have slowed down recovery activities
in the cropping areas post cyclone Larry. The cane harvest continues in
all districts with a return to fine conditions although most areas have
lost time due to the wet weather in July. Livestock remain in good
condition across the region after an excellent finish to the wet season
in most areas.
West Region: The rainfall for July varied across the region with most
falls this month again falling in the south-west area. This follow-up
rainfall from the falls received last month should encourage growth from
herbage in the areas that received it. This should provide short term
relief, however, the rainfall was not widespread and some properties are
yet to record decent falls. To the north of the region the highest fall
was recorded at Richmond with 42.8mm. This should increase the effective
green growth period for north of the region with the pasture quantity
and quality still in good condition for this time of year. Some parts of
the central-west have received rain and for those producers who had good
pasture response previously it will produce a little more herbage. For
those who did not have good pasture response the pasture continues to
dry off and annual grasses are disappearing with some areas almost
destocked.
Central Region: The vast majority of the central region has received
some useful relief rain in June following on with average rainfall for
the month of July. This has provided a good response in improved
pastures and winter grain crops. Native pasture areas are yet to
respond although should be well placed to respond in spring. Wheat crops
are expected to yield above average with harvesting of the early planted
crops to commence in September. The rain during July also proved
beneficial to later planted crops. Stock numbers going through Gracemere
Saleyards have increased during July with prices remaining firm for good
condition stock with prices for average stock falling slightly.
Livestock condition is generally good with stock on the Central
Highlands and parts of the Desert Uplands in excellent condition for
this time of year.
South-East Region: Rainfall during the month has varied quite
considerably with some districts receiving very useful short term relief
rainfall. Falls of up to 90 mm have occurred in some centres but the
falls were patchy with some areas missing out totally. In areas where
there has been rainfall, some short green pick will eventuate however
unless there are significant falls there is unlikely to be any long term
change to the situation from rain this month. Rainfall records for many
centres indicate that 2006 has had the driest 5 month period since
records began. Declining water reserves, pastures and poor cropping
conditions continue to be a feature of the region. Feed costs and
demand for supplies continue to rise as livestock producers attempt to
maintain stock condition. Cattle prices have remained reasonable
allowing the sale of stock.
South Region: Rainfall ranged from 10m to 50mm with the Western Downs
and Maranoa districts recording the lowest falls. Overall there has been
a major rainfall deficit since December 2005 over the majority of the
region. This has impacted negatively on pasture and crop production.
There has been limited herbage or forage crop production, due to a lack
of winter rain while frosts have lowered pasture protein levels.
Livestock body condition is falling as a consequence of these factors.
There has been insufficient rainfall over the region to encourage any
significant winter planting. Any rain that fell this month was generally
too late to allow for any significant planting on the eastern Downs.
LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES:
North Region: The regional situation at present is favourable overall
with the exception being parts of the Charters Towers and Bowen areas
which have still not received sufficient rainfall. Useful winter rain
for the remainder of the region has ensured continued pasture growth in
most areas. Widespread rain was received throughout the Mareeba and
Carpentaria shires with some areas recording up to 100mm. On the east
coast, the Lockhart River has recorded 3.3 meters for the year to date.
Cattle across the Normanton and Georgetown districts are generally in
very good condition. Overall there is a good body of grass across the
district and recent rain has generated fresh growth in some areas. Most
water storages are full. Some rivers and major creeks are still running
and there are a number of springs running that are usually dry at this
time of year. Winter rain and warmer days have generally allowed for a
good response in pasture growth in the Charters Towers stock district.
Only the bottom south west of the shire is struggling a little. Surface
water supplies appear to be adequate and stock are generally in
reasonable condition. Some small but useful amounts of rainfall were
received over most of the Bowen stock district this month, ranging from
10-20mm. The coastal areas of the district appear in good shape for
both feed and water. Along the coastal region water is now in reasonable
supply although both above and below ground water still requires further
rain to restore supplies. Overall pastures range from short to good.
Coastal properties also have good green feed although haying-off is
occurring due to the cooler weather. Some inland properties have short,
green grass which is quickly deteriorating while other properties have
had good follow-up rains and should hold through to the dry season.
Livestock generally remain in fair condition.
West Region: Overall stock generally appear to be in good condition. In
the south and central west of the district good livestock condition can
mainly be attributed to the low stocking rates. In the south west
region, this may be due to recent rainfall which has prompted some
producers to delay destocking and wait to see if there is any pasture or
herbage response. Destocking is still continuing around Boulia. Drought
feeding is still occurring in the south and central areas of the region
with dry season supplements of dry lick and cottonseed being fed.
Drought feeding is at a minimum in the north as there is still a
reasonably good body of standing pasture. Where rain was not received in
the central-west conditions continue to decline and feed is dying off.
On a district basis the majority of livestock across the north west are
generally in average to above average condition with the exception
around Boulia where condition is below average. There have been no
reports of drought feeding and stock movements have been limited apart
from cattle returning from agistment. Agistment opportunities have been
provided in the Flinders shire following recent rains with many
properties being well understocked. Overall pasture condition is
generally good. Livestock in the central west are in good condition,
however numbers across the district are well below normal carrying
capacity due to destocking. Pastures are drying off and annual grasses
are starting to disappear. Around Boulia there is very little dry matter
available to stock and herbage sources throughout the southern, western
and eastern parts of the shire are minimal. To the south west livestock
condition ranges from 1 to 5 with the better condition being maintained
through supplementary feeding and low stocking rates. Red/Mulga country
is slowing responding to earlier falls as is the black country.
Currently there is good herbage available for sheep. Similar conditions
can be seen in the Quilpie district with herbage growth being prompted
from recent rain.
Central Region: There has been an average of 25mm recorded around the
Alpha district with some properties recording up to 35mm. Pastures
around Alpha are generally looking good. Livestock are in good condition
for this time of the year. Stock movements through the dip have
continued to be steady this month. There is no drought feeding reported
and water supplies appear to be sufficient across the district. Store
stock around Clermont are still in good condition for this time of the
year and should see the year through reasonably well with existing
pastures. Quality fat cattle continue to be turned off in good numbers
and this is expected to continue for the next few months. Very little
lick is being fed which is unusual for this time of the year although
this may reflect the quality of the pasture available due to previous
rainfall that has enabled it to freshen up. There is a good balance of
green feed and dry feed available across the majority of the shire. The
area to the east of Capella would appear to have considerably less feed
available compared to the western portion. Most producers have reported
water supplies as being sufficient. Stock condition in the Biloela
district is generally average to good in most areas. In areas that
missed out on rain and where pastures are declining, cattle are
beginning to slip and drought feeding has been started. Agistment has
been sourced for livestock where available. Pasture ranges from poor to
fair condition through the area. West of Moura has adequate reserves.
The area from Dululu south to Banana/Theodore and across to Biloela is
seeing reserves dwindle rapidly. Rainfall during the previous month
along with relatively mild conditions has seen some pasture response.
Many pastures still have a green tinge due to minimal frosts. Areas east
of Biloela and through to the coast have experienced regular small falls
which have kept pastures green. Surface water ranges from adequate to
poor. Many dams are dry after long periods of little runoff. There are
shortages of surface water in the Boyne valley with last month's rain
only making a slight improvement. Drought feeding is occurring in the
worst effected areas generally being south of Biloela across to Theodore
and up to Dululu.
South-East Region: In most areas of the region livestock are generally
falling off in condition as the winter progresses and conditions remain
dry. Many producers are now heavily supplementing their remaining stock.
Areas that have received some rainfall should benefit from short green
pasture growth. Cows with calves are showing a drop off in condition.
Agistment is very hard to find with most stock movements being to
slaughter or sale as stores. Producers are taking advantage of
reasonably buoyant prices to off-load their stock prior to any fall in
condition. Drought feeding is continuing although hay is very difficult
to obtain. Pasture quality and quantity is generally very poor across
all areas. Some districts along the coastal strip have some better
quality feed although the majority of pastures have very little
nutritional value.
South Region: Dry cattle are averaging fat score 2 to 3. Cows with
calves are slipping and many producers are concerned due to the limited
availability of pasture. Graziers are likely to reduce herds and flocks
further to ensure survival/production through to summer. Limited on-farm
stock water supplies will determine short to medium term carrying
capability of most properties. Generally, animals are holding in
condition. Dairy farmers are feeding stock earlier than anticipated.
Pasture growth has declined from late December with the western and
northern extremities of the region generally being the worst affected.
The Border River district has better quantities of standing feed
although pasture availability is below average in most areas when
compared to previous years. Due to insufficient rain there has been
minimal production of winter herbage. Light rains that have fallen this
month are expected to provide short term growth.
CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE:
North Region: The grass seed cropping season has finished on the
tablelands with seed quality and yield poor overall. Most growers are
planning to plant early irrigated spring crops to make up a shortfall in
seed due to the last season's poor crop. Harvesting of legume seed crops
is yet to commence however normal yields are anticipated. The maize
harvest is almost finished although some very poor yields were seen due
to cyclone damage. Fine weather conditions have finally started to
emerge in the wet tropics. Banana crops at Innisfail have started to
grow after minimal growth in April, May and June due to the lack of
sunlight from overcast conditions. Growers have commenced ground work in
replant blocks that were destroyed by Cyclone Larry. Pawpaw growers are
preparing for spring planting. On the Tablelands the potato crop is all
but planted. Some of the early planted crops have now been harvested. In
the Bowen district the cropping season is in full production with the
harvesting of tomatoes, capsicums, beans and sweet corn ongoing.
Variable weather over the last few months has impacted on production
with delays in ripening. Wet weather caused harvesting delays in all
sugar cane districts although harvesting and planting is continuing
across the region. In the Tully district the return of fine weather has
harvesting and planting back on track. In the Herbert district wet
weather has delayed planting with only about a quarter of the area
planted to date. Overall, growers would normally be mid way through
planting at this time of the year. The late wet season has the Burdekin
crop cutting slightly above estimate.
Central Region: Reasonable follow up rain was received in most parts
over the last month, with many crops receiving between 20 and 30 mm for
the month in a number of small events. There were some isolated heavier
falls in a few areas but even the smaller totals were well received.
This rain was ideal to establish secondary roots on late planted wheat
and barley crops, as well further improve yield potential in crops
planted earlier in the season. Crop yield potential is generally good in
the Callide Valley, although northern parts will need more rain in the
next month to ensure a good result. Dawson Valley crops are more
variable, with some showing symptoms of moisture stress before the rain
in July. Some of the very early crops are starting to ripen and by early
September it is likely that harvest will be getting underway. There is a
relatively small area held over for planting spring sorghum or mungbeans
and it is likely these paddocks will be planted as soon as rain falls
after the end of August.
South-East Region: Rain received during the month generally came too
late to plant any winter crops. Irrigated crops should however benefit
from the falls. The low rainfall for much of the south east coastal
region during July was as expected for this time of year. Fortunately
good rainfall earlier in the year recharged dams and bores on farms.
Though the situation is not critical at this stage for horticultural
producers in the coastal South East area, good rainfalls in the coming
spring and summer months will be needed to refill dams that have
depleted over the dry winter months. Avocado harvesting continued
through July although prices started to fall away as volumes increased
this month. Expectations are generally for an 'average' rather than
'good' crop is for 2006. Pineapple harvesting has slowed with the onset
of cooler winter conditions although the work load will increase again
in September. Macadamia harvesting continued through June with a good
crop predicted for 2006. Rain has not been sufficient to significantly
interfere with harvesting and the increased soil moisture has helped
relieve moisture stress. Custard apple harvesting continued during July
in south east Queensland.
South Region: There has been insufficient rain to plant winter crop in
any quantity and the window of opportunity has now closed. Rainfall over
the summer fallow period, from October 2005 to April 2006, was below
average across most of the region. The exception was the Border River
area. The Darling Downs has been extremely dry especially around the
northern parts. There have been reports of concerns relating to the lack
of stored moisture in fallow soil profiles. This has impacted negatively
on winter crop planting. There is generally a shortage of on-farm
irrigation water supplies with no inflow into dams for a number of
months. Many farmers in the Border Rivers area have foregone winter
planting and will wait for summer. Consistent with the rest of the South
region the Maranoa/Balonne region sub-soil moisture levels need
significant replenishment before summer crop can be planted. Water
storages are approximately 60% full giving vegetable growers on the
Granite Belt some optimism for the upcoming season.
RAINFALL (figure in brackets indicates average)
North Region: Babinda received 254mm (132) Cairns A/P 43mm (26),
Malanda n/a (44), Ingham 35mm (72), Innisfail 226mm (n/a), Townsville
16mm (11), Tully 234mm (123), Bowen 20mm (n/a), Charters Towers 27mm
(n/a), Georgetown 23mm (5) and Normanton A/P 16mm (n/a) and Proserpine
A/P 21mm (n/a).
West Region: Birdsville A/P n/a (14), Boulia 19mm (11), Windorah 38mm
(17), Cloncurry 4mm (7),
Mt Isa 1mm (9), Longreach 22mm (21), Muttaburra 17mm (19), Winton 9mm
(17) and Charleville 55mm (24).
Central Region: Alpha recorded 25mm (25), Clermont 24mm (23), Springsure
22mm (30), Mackay 38mm (48), Yaamba 19mm (34), Biloela A/P 28mm (31), Mt
Larcom 35mm (38), Gladstone 44mm (43), Theodore 26mm (37), and Yeppoon
87mm (n/a).
South-East Region: Eidsvold recorded 22mm (38), Gayndah 26mm (n/a),
Mundubbera 31mm (38),
Esk 28mm (51), Kilkivan 48mm (49), Kingaroy 41mm (n/a), Nanango 44mm
(49), Proston 71mm (41), and Beaudesert 39mm (49). On the coastal
fringe Bundaberg received 83mm (49), Maryborough 91mm (59), Nambour 53mm
(98) and Tewantin 120mm (n/a).
South Region: Clifton 26mm (43), Dalby 28mm (n/a), Goondiwindi 57mm
(n/a), Inglewood n/a (40), Oakey 31mm (38), Pittsworth 14mm (47),
Stanthorpe 48mm (52), Toowoomba AP 49mm (n/a),
Warwick 49mm (n/a), Roma 13mm (n/a), Miles 21mm (n/a), St George A/P
26mm (n/a) and Taroom 17mm (35).
WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES
North Region: Water storages are full to near full across the region.
The major water storages at Tinaroo and Burdekin Dams are at 100% and
98% respectively.
West Region: Rain received in the south-west of the region has
replenished surface water supplies for those who received it. In other
areas of the south-west and central west, there is still only minimal
surface water available and many producers still rely on the Great
Artesian Basin.
Central Region: Surface water ranges from adequate to poor although many
dams are dry after long periods without runoff rainfall. However, there
has been some good rainfall events throughout the region and in some
areas enough to cause some minor flows to occur.
South-East Region: Surface water availability is minimal in all areas
away from the near coastal strip. This can be attributed to earlier high
evaporation rates and very little run off experienced over summer. Water
is being carted on some properties to provide supplies for stock.
Underground water supplies are generally falling in most areas.
Irrigators are experiencing lowering in bore levels and water quality.
South Region: There are wide areas of the region with depleted dam water
stocks. Limited on-farm water supplies will determine the short to
medium term carrying capability of most properties. Stream flow was once
again well below average across all catchments throughout the region.
Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY
Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454
National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)
 |
The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries. |
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