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07 Aug 2008

OUTLOOK:

Based on the monthly value for June of minus 6.7 the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is now in a 'Consistently Negative' phase. A Consistently Negative SOI phase at this time of year gives low rainfall probabilities during July to September throughout most of Queensland. Based on this phase there is less than a 20% chance of getting above median rainfall for the south west and Burnett regions of Queensland. Throughout the rest of the north east and southern half of the state there is a 20 to 40% chance of getting above median rainfall.

Given this, the latitude of the sub-tropical ridge of high pressure is further south than normal for this time of year. This has the potential to increase shower activity along the coastal fringe. A Negative SOI phase at the end of June also increases the chance of getting above median maximum temperatures and below median minimum temperatures for July to September across much of Queensland.

The output from ocean/atmosphere forecast models continues to indicate a neutral sea surface temperature (SST) pattern in the central Pacific (rather than an El Nino or La Nina). However both surface and sub-surface ocean temperatures in the key regions of the central Pacific have warmed over the last two months. If this warming trend in the central Pacific continues it may adversely impact on our expected winter, spring and early summer rainfall.

STATE OVERVIEW:

Overall seasonal conditions have varied across Queensland with some regions experiencing a continued good response from recent rains while the more south and south western regions have not received any real break from ongoing dry conditions. These extremes can be seen in parts of the Flinders Shire where some producers are now able to provide agistment opportunities to stock from the southern areas. The Dawson and Callide Valleys received good falls at the beginning of the month providing some sub soil moisture in the eastern, central and southern parts of the Callide. The southern region continues to experience minimal rainfall which is impacting on pasture and crop production. This has been reflected in livestock with condition starting to fall away. A lack of herbage and forage crops may force graziers to consider further destocking or drought feeding.

The Minister for Primary Industries and Fisheries drought declared that part of Chinchilla Shire north of the Dingo Barrier Fence effective 1 June 2006.

There are currently 62 shires and 5 part shires drought declared under State processes, which is equivalent to 60.2% of the land area of the State. There are also 188 Individually Droughted Properties (IDPs) in a further 16 shires.

REGIONAL SUMMARIES:

North Region: Most of the North Region has recorded well above average rainfall for the past three months. Useful winter rain has also ensured continued pasture growth in most areas.

West Region: Rainfall for June varied across the region with most falls generally received in parts of the south-west. Areas to the north of the region generally continue to maintain good pasture quality with some graziers in Flinders shire providing agistment opportunities to stock from the south-west of the region. Rain received in the south-west areas has provided minor relief by filling some dams/water holes however pasture response was minimal and further follow-up rain is needed.

Central Region: After experiencing a reasonably dry month during May, June has been a much wetter month in the Dawson and Callide valleys. Good rain fell in eastern parts of the region at the beginning of the month with totals up to 75 mm recorded in the central and southern parts of the Callide. The northern Callide and the Dawson received between 30 and 40 mm on average. Further showers fell later in the month although again mostly in eastern districts. Best totals were 10 - 20 mm during this event. Generally across the region cattle appear to be holding well. Pastures remain patchy although there has been a good response in those areas where rain was recorded.

South-East Region: The region has again experienced varying seasonal conditions during the month. Some of the near coastal areas have received good rainfall which was above the long term mean for June. Although above average rainfall was received in some areas the majority of the region has again experienced extremely dry conditions. These areas are again struggling with declining water reserves, pastures and poor cropping conditions. Livestock producers are experiencing increased feed costs as they continue to maintain the condition of the nucleus of their herds following the lightening off of stock numbers as fodder reserves decline. Stock water availability is also causing some concern.

South Region: Rainfall received during June was below average for the month. Recorded falls ranged between 5mm to 25mm. With the south region experiencing a major rainfall deficit since December 2005 the impact on pasture and crop production has been negative. Frosts have caused pasture protein levels to fall and there has been limited herbage or forage crop production due to the absence of winter rain. Livestock condition is falling as a consequence of these factors. Insufficient rainfall over the region has deterred any significant winter planting and the window of opportunity to plant is now closing for the western cropping areas. A lack of herbage and forage crops may force graziers to consider further destocking or drought feeding.

LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES:

North Region: Cattle across the Normanton and Georgetown district are generally in very good condition. There is an excellent body of green grass throughout the district with no water problems. In the Mareeba stock district stock are generally in excellent condition except those from the Wet Coast and Tablelands. Access to some north western properties is still an issue. All rivers and creek systems in the region have had flows. The Innisfail area has suffered from the heavy rainfall. Cattle owners are moving cattle out once they are able to get transport in as pastures have died. Pasture response across the Charters Towers district has been positive for those producers who received April rain and the follow up winter rain in May/June. Areas that did not receive the heavy falls are still a little short on new feed. Surface water supplies are generally adequate with most rivers and creeks having run from the January rain. Groundwater, while not short, has not returned to pre drought outputs. Cattle remain in reasonable condition for this time of year. Some useful falls were received over the southwest Bowen district during the month. Water is now in reasonable supply along the coast for both above and below ground water. Pastures range from short to good depending on previous condition and the amount of rain received.

West Region: Cattle throughout the region are in reasonable condition which is generally due to lower stocking numbers. Sheep in the southern half of the region also remain in good condition as a result of low stock numbers and drought feeding. Stock movements have been limited as agistment availability is almost non existent. Sale numbers have been quite high as producers continue to destock. This is more noticeable out of the south central and west of the region. Stock movements in the northern areas have ceased except for normal market movement due to relief rain. Drought feeding continues in the central and south west areas where rain has not promoted much pasture growth. Large amounts of hay, cotton seed, loose licks, protein and mineral blocks are being fed to maintain the current condition of remaining animals. The northern areas have gained some relief from well above average falls and drought feeding has ceased in the short term. Across the north of the region, pasture quality and quantity is quite good with the good rainfall last month across the north producing quite a good pasture response. In the Cooper and Georgina channel country good pasture response from the flooding last month has brought some relief to producers with channel and flood out country. In the Diamantina there has only been minor to moderate flooding and pasture response in that system is not expected to give more than temporary relief. Generally, the southern areas have not received any relief rain and there is little if any pasture response.

Central Region: Livestock condition is generally good throughout the majority of the region. Response in cattle condition after recent rain is reflected by pasture response. The number of cattle presented at sale has generally remained steady although numbers are still below normal for this time of year. The impact of the drought in the southern parts of the region and the late start to northern season due to good rain has affected the supply of slaughter stock. Some abattoirs have reported supply problems. The area from Dululu south to Banana and across to Biloela is seeing pasture reserves fall away rapidly. Native pastures have generally shown a limited response after recent rain due to the cooler weather in the Rockhampton and Biloela districts. However there has been a better response in improved pastures. Buffel grass has responded well in the Mackay district. Around Clermont, pastures have hayed off well with most producers generally reporting sufficient supplies for this time of year. Some smaller falls of rain in the previous months have enabled pastures to freshen up with a good response reported particularly in the buffel.

South-East Region: In most areas of the region livestock are falling off in condition as the winter progresses and conditions remain dry. The coastal areas and some small pockets are faring quite well after receiving some rainfall which promoted pasture growth. Producers are generally maintaining livestock condition through supplementary feeding and continuing to lighten off stock numbers. Cows are showing a drop in condition and this is more evident where they have calves at foot. Most stock movements are to slaughter or sale as agistment is still hard to find with most areas experiencing similar conditions. Producers are taking advantage of reasonably buoyant prices to sell their stock before they lose too much condition. Drought feeding is now widespread as producers try to maintain condition through the winter dry period. Pasture quality and quantity is falling away in line with the dry conditions and winter frosts. Little to no rainfall has been received inland during the growing season and therefore the quantity of feed is low. The coastal strip has experienced good quality feed.

South Region: Livestock condition is generally score 2 to 3 for dry cattle. Cows with calves are slipping and there is some concern amongst producers that there will be insufficient pasture to carry stock through winter. Some graziers are likely to further reduce their herds and flocks to ensure survival through to summer. Some stock movements have occurred with cattle being moved from the western shires to the Hughenden area on agistment. In the Balonne, Taroom and Booringa shires stock feeding is occurring although animals are generally holding in condition as a result of continued destocking practices. Due to the expense of hand feeding, many producers are opting to fatten livestock in feedlots or send cattle to sale. There are reports of dairy farmers having to feed stock earlier than anticipated. There has been a continual decline in pasture growth from late December. The areas that appear to be affected the worst are in the western and northern extremities of the region. The Border River district has more standing feed. Pasture availability is average to below when compared to historical records, throughout the region. There has been insufficient rain to produce any quantity of winter herbage. There are concerns for water over wide areas of the region as dam water stocks diminish.

CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE:

North Region: The North Queensland peanut harvest is almost completed with the ongoing wet conditions having hampered progress. Maize harvesting is also underway although again the quality and yield have been affected from recent cyclonic activity. The last remaining grass crops for the season are currently being harvested and are almost complete. The quality of Rhodes, Gatton Panic and Signal grass seed has been affected by the wet conditions. Small crop picking is underway in the Bowen region. Flowering on the bulk of the region's mango trees has generally been delayed due to above average minimum temperatures throughout June. Only patchy flowerings have occurred so far in the Dry Tropics. In the Wet Tropics banana plants are continuing to bounce back from the effects of Cyclone Larry, with the first bunches from the affected region forecast to be harvested in November. On the Tablelands potato plantings are still underway and again the continual wet weather has meant that these plantings have tended to be bunched rather than spread. Upper Tablelands potato crops are being harvested although yields have generally been down considerably due to Cyclones Larry and Monica. Rain early in the month has not delayed the start of the cane crush for the Burdekin, Herbert and Northern Mills but in the Tully district, the crush has been delayed by ongoing wet weather.

Central Region: Rain in the Callide Dawson has provided a boost to those winter crops planted in May and should see yield potentials increase. This has also meant that remaining fallow paddocks have now been planted to wheat and barley. Many winter cereal crops have developed much quicker than expected given that a few more warmer days were received during the month. Good rain was received across the Central Highlands in early April, sparking a wide planting of winter crops. In areas to the south of Emerald, around the Gindie district, farmers have reported that some crops especially those on scrub soils have already reached shot blade, as a result of warm weather and moisture stress. Many of the crops in the Kilcummin district have fared better with up to 70mm of rain in the last two weeks of June. Chickpea crops are looking good, and estimates are that 35,000 - 40,000 ha have been planted. Winter vegetables are being harvested although late pumpkins have generally been affected due to an oversupply on the market. Wet conditions have delayed the start of the cane harvest.

South-East Region: Rainfall for much of the south east coastal region during June has provided minimal run-off although it has at least topped up soil moisture. Fortunately good rainfall earlier in the year has recharged many dams and bores. Macadamia harvesting continued through June with a good crop showing promise for 2006. While rain has not been sufficient to interfere with harvesting the increased soil moisture has helped relieve moisture stress in most orchards. Rain received by strawberry growers during June has caused blemishing of fruit on the Ruby Gem variety. Hail damaged some plants on strawberry farms in the Wamuran/Bribie area during the last week of May. Harvesting of custard apples has continued throughout June although the rain and cold weather has affected some mature fruit causing skin splitting.

South Region: With one of the hottest summers recorded during December 2005 the prospects of producing a good summer crop have been severely affected. The absence of any significant rainfall events has diminished the opportunity to a plant winter crop in any quantity. Grain growers in the Darling Downs have expressed concerns regarding the lack of stored moisture in fallow soil profiles. This has impacted negatively on winter crop planting. Additionally, on-farm irrigation water supplies are also low due to a lack of inflow into dams for a number of months. In the Border Rivers district further rain is required prior to any major planting taking place. There have been some reports that growers may forego winter crop and wait until summer. In the Maranoa/Balonne district sub-soil moisture levels need significant replenishment. The area west of Roma required 100mm of rain to proceed with a winter crop planting although this did not occur. The same goes for Waroo, Balonne (east) and Tara where again planting rain was needed although the optimum time to plant has passed. Had rain been received in the Western Downs area, a reasonable winter crop could have been planted given that many growers had generally planted a low summer crop area. However without sub-soil moisture being present conditions were not favorable.

RAINFALL (figure in brackets indicates average)

North Region: Babinda received 376mm (208) Cairns A/P 93mm (50), Malanda n/a (62), Ingham 79mm (43), Innisfail 349mm (n/a), Townsville 10mm (20), Tully 271mm (176), Bowen 0.6mm (n/a), Charters Towers 17mm (n/a), Georgetown 0.0mm (6) and Normanton A/P 0.0mm (n/a) and Proserpine A/P 56mm (n/a).

West Region: Birdsville A/P n/a (8), Boulia 0.0mm (7), Windorah 18mm (12), Cloncurry 0.0mm (n/a), Mt Isa 0.0mm (3), Longreach 15mm (13), Muttaburra n/a (13), Winton 6mm (11) and Charleville 81mm (19).

Central Region: Alpha recorded 16mm (23), Clermont 51mm (24), Springsure 21mm (24), Mackay 97mm (64), Yaamba 68mm (38), Biloela A/P 58mm (31), Mt Larcom 129mm (36), Gladstone 125mm (35), Theodore 36mm (28), and Yeppoon 125mm (n/a).

South-East Region: Eidsvold recorded 18mm (38), Gayndah 21mm (n/a), Mundubbera 17mm (31), Esk 25mm (51), Kilkivan 22mm (40), Kingaroy 12mm (n/a), Nanango 51mm (48), Proston 12mm (31), and Beaudesert 38mm (49). On the coastal fringe Bundaberg received 189mm (54), Maryborough 91mm (64), Nambour 89mm (95) and Tewantin 161mm (n/a).

South Region: Clifton 3mm (32), Dalby 5mm (n/a), Goondiwindi 22mm (n/a), Inglewood n/a (28), Oakey 3mm (33), Pittsworth n/a (37), Stanthorpe 20mm (38), Toowoomba AP 6mm (n/a), Warwick 6mm (n/a), Roma 22mm (n/a), Miles 6mm (n/a), St George A/P 27mm (n/a) and Taroom 4mm (29).

WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES

The latest Water Storage Report from SunWater is attached.

North Region: Above average rainfall throughout the region has seen good flows in all rivers and creeks. Tinaroo Falls and Burdekin Falls Dam storages are both at 100% capacity.

West Region: Minor rainfall was recorded in the south-west of the region, replenishing some surface water supplies. In other areas of the south-west and central west, there still remains only minimal surface water and many producers are still relying wholly on the Great Artesian Basin.

Central Region: Some properties in the Duaringa and Calliope Shires are reporting low dam storage levels.

South East Region: Surface water availability is minimal in most areas away from the near coastal strip. Underground water supplies are falling in most districts while others are holding. Irrigators have been experiencing lowering in bore water levels and quality.

South Region: Stream flow is well below average across all catchment areas throughout the region with groundwater levels continuing to decline due to the lack of rain. Water storage levels have remained stationary except in the upper Condamine and Macintyre-Dumaresq River systems where levels are low.

Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY

Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454

National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)

The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries.