SITUATION AS AT 31 MARCH 2006
OUTLOOK:
The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has continued to fluctuate and
shifted in value from minus 0.6 for February to plus 11.4 for March
placing it in a Rapidly Rising' SOI phase. Part of the reason for the
rise in monthly value of the SOI was the redevelopment of an active
monsoonal trough across northern Australia and cyclone activity. Based
on historical rainfall records for April to June with a rising SOI phase
at the end of March there is a 40 to 60% chance of getting above median
rainfall across most of Queensland. Analysis of historical rainfall
records also indicate that rainfall for the 3 month period is more
likely to be closer to median than well above or well below median.
According to the Weekly Tropical Climate Note from the Bureau of
Meteorology website late February/early March saw the development of an
active phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) and a monsoon trough
moving southward over northern Australia. The MJO structure then
weakened rapidly until a new active MJO phase developed in the Indian
Ocean in late March. It now appears to be approaching the end of this
active MJO event. The next active phase of the MJO is expected around
early to mid-May.
The MJO is a band of low air pressure originating on the east coast of
central Africa travelling eastward across the Indian Ocean and northern
Australia roughly every 30 to 60 days. Research has shown it to be a
useful indicator of the timing, but not amounts, of potential rainfall
events.
STATE OVERVIEW:
Tropical Cyclone Larry (TC Larry) crossed the tropical north Queensland
coast near Innisfail on the morning of 20 March 2006. The Minister for
Emergency Services activated the Commonwealth/State Natural Disaster
Relief Arrangements (NDRA) for the North Queensland communities affected
or likely to be affected, which included the following local government
areas: Atherton Shire Council; Burdekin Shire Council; Burke Shire
Council, Cairns City Council; Cardwell Shire Council; Carpentaria Shire
Council; Cloncurry Shire Council; Croydon Shire Council; Dalrymple Shire
Council; Doomadgee Aboriginal Shire Council; Douglas Shire Council;
Eacham Shire Council; Etheridge Shire Council; Flinders Shire Council,
Herberton Shire Council; Hinchinbrook Shire Council; Johnstone Shire
Council; Mareeba Shire Council; McKinlay Shire Council; Mornington Shire
Council; Mt Isa Shire Council; Richmond Shire Council; Thuringowa City
Council; Townsville City Council and Yarrabah Aboriginal Shire Council.
The cyclone then continued west causing further damage to crops and
infrastructure before turning into a rain depression causing flooding
rains across the southern gulf.
Elsewhere in the State rain has generally been patchy. Livestock are
generally holding with the exception in some parts of the State where
condition is starting to slip. This may become more widespread if no
beneficial rainfall is received prior to going into winter. Some summer
crops in Central Region have suffered with the high temperatures and
lack of in-crop rain and summer crop yields in South Region range from
very good to failure. There are currently 61 shires and 7 part shires
drought declared under State processes, which is equivalent to 60.6% of
the land area of the State. There are also 105 Individually Droughted
Properties (IDPs) in a further 15 shires.
REGIONAL SUMMARIES:
North Region: TC Larry crossed the tropical north Queensland coast near
Innisfail on the morning of 20 March 2006. Severe structural damage to
homes and businesses occurred and local cropping industries were
severely affected. The cyclone then continued across the Tablelands
causing further damage to crops and infrastructure before turning into a
rain depression causing flooding rains across the southern gulf. While
there has been flood damage to fences, dams and some property buildings
in the extensive northern grazing areas, overall the rain has been
beneficial in this area.
West Region: March rainfall ranged from 0.6mm to 391mm. Again rainfall
was scattered across the region, with the northern areas generally
receiving the most rain. However, much of this rain fell in short bursts
and as a result there was little or no benefit in many areas. Well above
average rain has fallen around the North West district with Mt Isa
recording a total of 391mm for the month. The Central West has also
received reasonable showers with Longreach and Blackall recording
slightly above average for March. Areas in the south of the region
received well below average rain.
Central Region: Reasonable rainfall was recorded in most dairying areas
with totals varying between 50mm and 200mm. The rain received was good
grass rain and should generally improve the autumn and early winter
outlook on most dairy farms. Stock condition is generally holding
although as the current seasonal conditions are generally expected to
fall away over the coming months some decline in stock condition is
expected. Normal horticulture plantings and harvesting are occurring.
The sugar cane crop is generally doing well in all areas with the
lightest area being the Upper Pioneer Valley.
South-East Region: Another month of missed opportunities on the weather
front was experienced throughout most of the South East Queensland
Region. With the exception of the coastal strip very little rainfall was
received other than isolated pockets of storm rain. In most areas falls
were well down on the mean for this time of year. Rainfall has been
below average in the traditionally high rainfall summer months.
South Region: The bulk of the region received well below average
rainfall of between 10 - 50mm with the best falls recorded in western
areas. Pasture growth has declined since late December and this is
directly related to the variable storm rain. The worst affected areas in
the South region are the western and northern areas. Livestock are in
generally fair to good condition except in those areas where pasture is
an issue. Summer crop yields range from very good to very poor and most
late planted sorghum crops have not fared well. The best harvest
prospects are on the Border Rivers and isolated areas of the northern
Downs. Dryland cotton yields are restricted due to the lack of in-crop
rain and problems with pests. The Granite Belt has experienced
beneficial climatic conditions and continues to receive excellent prices
for fruit and vegetables.
LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES:
North Region: The region has generally received very useful rainfall
with the northern areas experiencing some flooding in the wake of TC
Larry. Stock recovery from the recent dry times has slowly begun for
some properties and the majority of property owners in the region have
had a very good start to the year. Generally across the region
livestock condition has started to improve slightly as feed quality and
quantity has increased due to recent rains and should provide a good
body of feed. Pasture quality and quantity in most areas has responded
to recent rains combined with some good growing conditions. Surface
water generally has been replenished from the January rainfall across
the region and at present seems to be adequate. Bore supply also appears
to be adequate. In the Mareeba stock district pastures are generally
better than last year, but a lot of cattle are still showing the effects
of last season. Around the Innisfail and Malanda districts pastures are
looking green with a fair body of feed over most parts and cattle are
generally in good condition. The coastal areas of the Bowen district
generally appear to be in good condition, although good falls of rain
from Collinsville to the west and south west are needed. Cattle across
the Georgetown district are generally in good condition. Most cattle are
at least condition score 4 with the region showing a good body of feed.
Townsville stock district has benefited from good rainfall provided by
TC Larry and the continuing monsoonal activity. Generally, the district
is looking good with good stands of feed in all areas.
West Region: Stock in the North West district are generally in good
condition. There is very little drought feeding taking place as recent
rains have prompted pasture growth. In the Richmond and Hughenden area
dry cattle are in good condition. Breeders however are generally in
light to fair condition. Pasture response to recent rains has been
limited with only some short green pick resulting. There has however
been quite a good pasture response in the northern portion of the shires
where follow up rain has been received. Mt Isa is experiencing similar
trends to the other areas in the North West district with the exception
being a slightly higher use of supplementation feeding. This has mainly
consisted of high protein feeds along with molasses based products. In
the Central West both cattle and sheep are in good condition for this
time of the year and provided overstocking does not occur stock
condition should continue to hold. Around the Winton district a high
number of animals are being moved off properties either to sale or onto
agistment. Showers have produced green pick in areas, however pastures
in most areas are still well below quality and quantity for this time of
year. In the South West region the high temperatures have caused loss in
stock condition, however as most properties are carrying below normal
stocking rates, condition loss does not appear to be too quick. Most
stock movements in the district have resulted from cattle returning home
as agistment cuts out or movements to sale. The majority of stock in the
area are currently being fed high quantities of protein and energy
blocks along with some cotton seed and hay. The availability of pasture
is rapidly decreasing in the southern and western parts of the district.
Central Region: Pastures reflect the variability of the rainfall
throughout the whole region. The area that appears to be affected the
most is the northern portion of Banana Shire and the Nebo district. A
large proportion of the native pasture areas are in really poor
condition with large bare patches developing and grass cover very short
even on ridges. Stock in the Jericho Shire are doing very well even
though some destocking has taken place. There has been an increase in
the number of stock being presented through the Gracemere Saleyards.
Supplement feeding of dairy cows is generally above normal levels. Beef
producers are resisting supplementation programs so early in the season
although stock condition is still generally reasonable. In general,
pasture quality in most dairying areas is holding at the moment although
it does vary which reflects the current seasonal conditions.
South-East Region: Livestock are generally maintaining good condition.
Many producers have taken advantage of good livestock prices and sold
more cattle prior to the onset of winter. Livestock in areas that have
missed out on rainfall appear to be dropping in condition and this is
particularly prevalent in breeders with calves. Most movements are
occurring from the sale and slaughter of cattle, while very little is
occurring for restocking and agistment purposes. While many producers
have started supplementation feeding there are reports of drought
feeding taking place around Yarraman and Toogoolawah. Coastal areas have
enjoyed good quality and quantity in their pastures as a result of the
rainfall having been received. However, the further away from the coast
the more the pastures are deteriorating and are in desperate need of
rainfall. Condition of these inland pastures is described as that of
late winter and good rainfall is required to establish adequate reserves
prior to winter.
South Region: Livestock are generally in fair to good condition except
for the more western areas where there is some concern that there may
not be sufficient dry feed to carry stock over during winter. While
stock numbers have remained stable over recent months there may be the
need to further reduce stocking numbers. The continued high cattle
prices have limited most producers ability to buy stock. Adequate
pasture growth during the first half of summer alleviated the need to
drought feed in most areas. However in the south west portion of Balonne
shire there are reports of drought feeding taking place. Water supplies
in the Crows Nest/Rosalie area are critical with many areas out of
water.
CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE:
North Region: Maize crops on the Tablelands were generally severely
damaged by TC Larry while most peanuts and early planted potato crops
suffered minimal damage. Avocados, tropical fruits, papayas and
macadamia nut crops along the coastal areas and on the Tablelands have
all suffered significant damage. Recent cyclonic activity has caused
severe damage to sugar cane crops in the Innisfail and Babinda area.
Most of the loss is the result of flattened or broken cane which makes
harvesting more costly and reduces sugar content. Planting continues in
the Bowen district for the 2006 vegetable cropping season.
Central Region: March has generally been a dry month in most parts of
the Callide and Dawson Valleys with isolated storms being the rainfall
recorded. Where it has rained, totals have generally ranged between
10-50 mm although there have been some recordings up to 100mm. However,
there is still a need for good widespread rain before there will be any
major improvement in the seasonal outlook. The majority of the remaining
summer crop harvesting is now complete with many growers having
experienced poor yields. Despite a good start for mungbean crops in the
Dawson Valley many growers faced a dry finish to the season. Yields were
generally average to below average in most cases. Winter crops are
expected to be planted from the last week in March so growers are
looking for good rain in the near future to ensure a good winter crop.
Currently the Central Highlands is 30-40% through its cotton harvest
with most of the late crops still to be fully defoliated. Yields off the
early cotton crop have been respectable.
South-East Region: Drought conditions are starting to emerge in the
region which is affecting late summer pasture growth, production of
summer stand-over forage as well as lucerne and forage hay production.
Irrigation water appears to be at an all-time low with many growers
having ceased pumping from their allocations. Summer crops are generally
very poor. Early peanut crops and corn crops have yielded poorly with
most growers not producing enough to cover production costs.
Approximately one third of the crops in the Burnett region have produced
moderate yields and quality. The coastal regions have shown good results
from improved agronomy with peanut and soybean production. Crops at
Bundaberg, Childers and Maryborough are very good with the potential to
return high yields. While rainfall in the south east coastal region was
below normal, there were significant rainfall events in most areas to
maintain soil moisture at a satisfactory level. Harvesting of early
macadamia varieties has begun although some minor interruptions have
occurred due to the wet weather preventing machinery getting into
orchards. Strawberry plantings from the runner growers in Stanthorpe
were early this year. One of the new varieties, Ruby Gem, bred at the
Maroochy Research Station was planted mid March and planting of the mid
season varieties continued throughout the second half of March.
South Region: Conditions have generally been hot and dry with
insufficient rainfall in February and March to greatly improve yield
prospects. On the Darling Downs the sorghum harvest is now about 75%
complete although insect pressure has affected some cotton and sorghum
production. Late planted sorghum crops are generally worst affected.
Rainfall over summer has been irregular which is reflected in the crop
production. The best prospects are on the Border Rivers and isolated
areas of the North and Eastern Downs. Irrigated maize and soybean crops
have generally performed well while large areas of the dryland cotton
crop in Northern Downs districts have been defoliated and picking is
underway. Areas of dryland mungbeans and other summer crops have been
greatly reduced due to the seasonal conditions. The Maranoa has
experienced very hot and dry conditions that have dramatically reduced
yield prospects. Early planted crops generally should go to harvest
although reduced yields are expected because of the current hot
temperatures. The Granite Belt district continues to experience a good
season where falls of near 25mm were recorded for March. Growers are
still experiencing good prices for most vegetables and apples while dam
storages have been assisted by good rainfall runoff.
RAINFALL (figure in brackets indicates average)
North Region: Babinda received 1606mm (816) Cairns A/P 589mm (449),
Malanda 16mm (347), Ingham 633mm (454), Innisfail 1064mm (n/a),
Townsville 162mm (176), Tully 1209 (745), Bowen 79mm (n/a), Charters
Towers 66mm (n/a), Georgetown 227mm (140) and Normanton A/P 272 (n/a)
and Proserpine A/P 61mm (n/a).
West Region: Birdsville A/P 9 (n/a), Boulia 6mm (35), Windorah 77mm
(32), Cloncurry 164 (62), Mt Isa 163mm (65), Longreach 59mm (65),
Muttaburra 177mm (64), Winton 112mm (51) and Charleville 24mm (59).
Central Region: Alpha recorded 38mm (70), Clermont 131mm (75),
Springsure 11mm (69), Mackay 298mm (312), Yaamba 108mm (117), Biloela
A/P 11 (52), Mt Larcom 31mm (109), Gladstone 91mm (104), Theodore 5mm
(46), and Yeppoon 191mm (n/a).
South-East Region: Eidsvold recorded 6mm (71), Gayndah 3mm (n/a),
Mundubbera 10mm (56),Esk 38mm (87), Kilkivan 24mm (85), Kingaroy 11mm
(n/a), Nanango 22mm (74), Proston 13mm (68), and Beaudesert 49mm (100).
On the coastal fringe Bundaberg received 81mm (127), Maryborough 157mm
(134), Nambour 200mm (215) and Tewantin 129 (n/a).
South Region: Clifton 26mm (73), Dalby 24mm (n/a), Goondiwindi 25mm
(n/a), Inglewood n/a (59), Oakey 15mm (52), Pittsworth 9mm (69),
Stanthorpe 27mm (75), Toowoomba AP 21mm (n/a), Warwick 30mm (n/a), Roma
39mm (n/a), Miles 15mm (n/a), St George A/P 31mm (n/a) and Taroom 24mm
(64).
WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES
North Region: Surface supplies have been replenished this month in many
areas. Tinaroo and Burdekin dams have had good inflows during the month
from TC Larry with levels at 83% and 98% respectively.
West Region: Generally there are no real water problems, as the majority
of the water in the region is artesian. There are small amounts of
surface water available in areas that have received showers in the last
month.
Central Region: Groundwater bores/aquifers in the Mackay/Pioneer
Valley, Mackay/Coastal Aquifer and Callide Valley continue to be low.
There has been little change at Proserpine, but levels continue to
recede at Isaac and Nebo with some the lowest or near record lows. Good
rises have been noted at Yeppoon from recent rain.
South East Region: Water reserves are of concern as there has been
little run off in most areas. Underground supplies have seen little
recharge with major water storages continuing to drop. Irrigation
allocations in most areas have been reduced considerable to protect the
dwindling reserves.
South Region: There has been no major streamflows for the month and
storages capacities have fallen from February.
Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY
Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454
National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)
 |
The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries. |
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