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07 Aug 2008

OUTLOOK:

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has continued to fluctuate and shifted in value from plus 13.04 for April to minus 8.08 at the end of May placing it in a "Rapidly Falling" SOI phase. Based on historical rainfall records for June to August there is a 20 to 40% chance of getting above the long term June to August median rainfall for much of the southern third of the state as well as the central and northern coastal strip. For the rest of Queensland there is a 40 to 60% chance of getting above the long term median rainfall for the rest of the State during the June to August period. A falling SOI phase at this time of year also increases the chance of getting below median minimum temperatures during June to August for Queensland.

The last two active phases of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) over north Australia occurred in relatively quick succession during late March/early April and then again in late April. The MJO was next expected in early to mid June. However at this stage it has not developed in the central and eastern Indian Ocean.

The MJO is a band of low air pressure originating off the east coast of central Africa travelling eastward across the Indian Ocean and northern Australia roughly every 30 to 60 days. Research has shown the MJO to be a useful indicator of the timing of potential rainfall events (but not amounts).

STATE OVERVIEW:

With the onset of winter there are many areas throughout Queensland that are starting to fall away in the absence of any follow up rain from falls that were received earlier in the year. Pasture availability in most areas is average to below and there is some concern with the availability of feed to carry stock through the winter months. In areas where frosts have occurred, protein levels in pastures have also fallen away. Cattle are generally ranging from poor to average across most of the State. The North has received a break from the recent wet conditions following cyclonic activity. Sorghum crop yields across Central Queensland have been variable and large areas of sorghum on the Darling Downs have failed and have been baled or fed off. The low summer crop area planting could ensure reasonable winter crop planting, if sufficient rainfall is received.

There are currently 61 shires and 6 part shires drought declared under State processes, which is equivalent to 60.0% of the land area of the State. There are also 99 Individually Droughted Properties (IDPs) in a further 13 shires.

REGIONAL SUMMARIES:

North Region: The constant wet conditions that have been occurring since the passage of cyclone Larry seem to have abated which has been beneficial to both producers and crops. The Tableland Mill has started the 2006 cane crushing season at the end of May with the rest of the mills expected to start from mid June onwards. The vegetable cropping season in the Bowen district is underway although some cool days have slowed crop growth down. Bowen farmers have also had a welcome elevation in their water allocations from 50 to 75%. Wet weather has disrupted the cattle season on many Gulf and Peninsula properties with some properties still waiting to commence mustering. Given all this cattle are in good

condition and the markets have remained firm.

West Region: Rainfall has varied widely across the region with the highest total recorded being 54.2mm in Winton to no rain recorded in Birdsville, Cloncurry, Cunnamulla, Quilpie, Thargomindah and Windorah.

Generally across the region well below average rainfall was received. An isolated hail storm has destroyed some pastures on a number of properties to the south of Corfield. Across the north of the region pasture quality and quantity is good. In the Cooper and Georgina channel country good pasture response has resulted from the April flooding and has brought some relief to producers in these areas. In the Diamantina there has been minor to moderate flooding. Pasture response in that system is not expected to give any more than temporary relief.

Central Region: While some good rainfall was received early in the season, pasture is now generally starting to fall away as no follow up rain has been received and subsoil moisture is low. There are some areas, between Moura and Springsure, which are still fortunate to be holding a good body of feed. Water continues to be a problem in many parts of the region with some producers now having to cart water for stock. Cattle condition is falling away in line with the seasonal conditions. Early weaning and supplementary drought feeding is being undertaken to maintain breeder condition. Young cattle are either being sold to lighten numbers or are receiving supplementation to maintain condition.

South-East Region: Rainfall received for the month has been well below the long term median rainfall expected for this time of the year and well down on what is required to bring the district out of the continued dry conditions. The outlook for the next three months is at or below median rainfall for most of the region except for a small portion of coastline around the Fraser Island area. Temperatures are dropping and maintaining production across the diverse industries throughout the region is becoming more difficult. Water availability is receding as major and minor storages continue to fall. Livestock are generally holding condition although pastures are starting to fall away.

South Region: Rainfall was well below average for May. A significant rainfall deficit since December 2005 has impacted on pastures and crop production over most of the region. Recent frosts have caused protein levels in pastures to fall while winter herbage production has not eventuated due to insufficient rain. Livestock are generally in reasonable condition, except in the pasture depleted areas of Booringa, Bungil, Booringa and Taroom. Variable rainfall over 2005/2006 summer season has affected crop yields. Late planted sorghum fared worst.

Pasture availability is average to below and there is some concern that there will be insufficient pasture to carry stock through the winter months. Substantial rain is required prior to winter cereal and forage crops being planted.

LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES:

North Region: The north region is still generally benefiting from the rainfall received in April from Cyclone Larry. There are some areas in the Charters Towers and Bowen region that are still to receive effective rainfall which is now causing some concern for producers. The cooler temperatures overnight and sunny days have allowed for good pasture response in the northern areas of the region. Stock are slowly recovering from the recent dry times on most properties. Overall the Mareeba District looks good although many properties in the Cook Shire remain isolated due to road damage from cyclone Monica. While there is still a lot of clean up taking place in the north, Cooktown is still lush and the Daintree pastures are drying and improving. Cattle across the Normanton/Georgetown stock districts are generally in very good condition. Overall there is an excellent body of green grass across the district. Most water storages are full, with most of the rivers and major creeks running. Malanda district is generally looking good with plenty of pasture about. Pasture response in Charters Towers has been good for those who received rain and should see a positive response.

Surface water supplies are generally adequate. Overall in the Townsville district a reasonable wet season was received by most producers. South western parts of the Burdekin are generally lighter on for both feed and water than the rest of the district. Reports indicate that in some areas, the prolonged and heavier wet has damaged pastures. Stock condition is good in all areas. Around Bowen, livestock range from excellent to score 1 depending on location. Over the past 3 - 4 years, stock numbers in the district have been reduced to an estimated 60% of normal stocking rates. It is expected that this will remain the case until there is an extended improvement in seasonal conditions. The coastal areas of the district would appear to be in good shape for the foreseeable future for feed and water. Without more good falls of rain, the area from Collinsville to the west and south west may have fodder and water problems. Water is now generally in good supply along the coast both above and below ground.

West Region: Cattle throughout the region are in reasonable condition and this is generally due to the lower stocking numbers. Across the majority of the region stock numbers are as low as 20-30 %. Sheep in the southern half of the region also remain in good condition as a result of lower stocking numbers and drought feeding. Stock movements have been limited as agistment availability is extremely low. Sale numbers for the start of the year have been quite high as producers continue to destock particularly out of the south, central and west of the region. Stock movements in the northern areas have ceased except for normal market movement due to relief rain. Drought feeding continues in the central and south west areas where rain has not provided beneficial pasture relief. Large amounts of hay, cotton seed, loose licks and protein and mineral blocks are being fed to maintain the current condition of remaining animals. The northern areas have gained some relief from above average falls providing short term relief from drought feeding.

Central Region: Rainfall received during April had promoted good pasture growth around Alpha although with the onset of the cooler weather this feed dried off during May. Overall stock remain in good condition for this time of the year with no reports of water shortages or drought feeding in the district. The northern portion of Emerald shire has received good rain and looks in reasonable condition. Across the rest of the shire minimal rain and some light frosts have had a negative effect on pasture quality. In general the condition and quality of pasture has deteriorated considerably throughout the month. While some dams in shire are now very low, stock condition is still generally good. Clermont has recorded some good falls during the month that ranged between 8-30mm with the heavier falls being in the north and north-east parts of the shire around Moranbah. The condition of stock is well above average with most reports indicating that stock are holding condition well. Pasture supplies are holding well with quantity and quality no real issue at the present time. There has only been minimal rainfall this month across most shires in the Rockhampton district. Despite the lack of feed cattle are generally holding average condition. However without hand feeding being undertaken livestock condition is expected to drop quickly. It is noticeable that more young stock are being brought into the sale yards as producers are reading the conditions ahead and lightening their stock ratios. Pasture condition on the outskirts of Westwood towards Dululu is looking poor in some places. Areas along the east coast of the Livingstone shire are looking good with some black spear grass starting to seed.

South-East Region: Livestock are still holding condition surprisingly well given that pastures are haying off and deteriorating due to the dry cold weather. Condition has been maintained through good management of livestock carrying capacities and stocking rates. While no drought feeding is occurring along the coastal strip, inland areas are supplementing livestock with lick blocks. There are some reports of dairy producers feeding for both maintenance and production as home grown feed is not available. There are some parts of the region which are reporting a reasonable body of pasture although most areas are reporting only small quantities of low quality feed. Stock movements across the region have been minimal given the lack of available agistment.

South Region: Dry cattle are mostly showing fat score 3 condition. Cows with calves are reported to be slipping with concerns from producers that there will be insufficient pasture to carry stock over through winter. Balonne and Booringa shire properties are drought feeding.

Generally animals are holding in condition as a result of continued destocking practices. Many dairy farmers are feeding earlier than anticipated. Pasture growth has declined from late December with the worst affected areas in the western and northern extremities of the region. The Border River district has a better quantity of standing feed. To date, there has generally been insufficient rain to produce any quantity of winter herbage. Severe frosts in recent weeks have effectively ceased buffel spp. growth as well as decreasing protein levels in all pastures.

CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE:

North Region: On the Tablelands seed crop harvesting of Callide Rhodes and Floren bluegrass is underway and late crops of Gatton panic, Signal grass and other Rhodes grasses have been harvested. Seed quality was variable due to Cyclone Larry damaging mature seed crops and reducing sychronisation of salvage and late crops. Legume crops, being later crops, were generally not affected by Cyclone Larry and are growing well. In the Wet Tropics banana growers have widely adopted the suggested recovery scheme of staggering return to production of banana crops. Potato crops on the Tablelands are growing well but wet conditions have hindered planting and other field work. In the Bowen district harvesting of tomatoes has commenced with cool conditions late in the month slowing down crop growth. The tableland mill started crushing at the end of the month, signaling the start of the 2006 crush for north Queensland. Overall the crop looks good thanks to a late finish to the wet season and CCS at the end of the first week was 11.1.

In the Herbert district growers are commencing planting. Anticipated start to crushing is 20 June. In the wet tropics it is still very wet and flowering has occurred in some of the major varieties limiting any further growth. Cool weather has been beneficial for sugar accumulation. Mills in the district are generally planning to start crushing in the week commencing 19 June.

Central Region: The sorghum season in Central Queensland has been difficult to estimate, as rainfall has been patchy and different areas have received rain at different times. Hence there has been three main planting times, and yields have been variable. In October 2005, there was widespread rain across the Central Highlands, although the far north of region (Clermont and Dysart) missed out. This rain resulted in a number of late spring sorghum plantings, especially around Capella (as it received the highest amount of rain), and minor plantings around Gindie. A number of these crops failed due to extreme temperatures during summer and a lack of in-crop summer rainfall. Crops that have been harvested have generally been quite poor. The vast majority of December planted sorghum crops are located in the Northern Highlands, as growers on the Southern Highlands have had one of their driest summers on record and missed out on widespread planting opportunities. There were some small areas planted around Gindie, but generally farmers were trying to utilise the moisture across their farms and planted on poor profiles. Some of these crops are still to be harvested or are being harvested now. Late rain was received in February and March, in particular around Clermont, Kilcummin and Dysart. Sorghum was planted on this late rain in what would normally be considered outside the ideal planting window. Those crops are yet to be harvested, but are showing yield potentials of around 1.5 - 3tonnes / ha at this stage. There have been some reports of minor frost damage, midge and the potential for ergot in late crops, all of which may have an impact on yield.

South-East Region: Rainfall recorded in the South East coastal region during May was again very low in all areas. Good falls earlier in the year have recharged farm dams and bores, so the water situation is not as critical at this stage for horticultural producers around the coastal areas. Avocado harvesting of the Hass variety which began in during April continues with no major problems reported. Pineapple growers are also busy with harvesting and planting underway. Macadamia harvesting has continued throughout May with expectations of a good crop for 2006.

DPI&F researchers at the Maroochy Research Station have begun the process of carrying out limited regional testing of a new variety of custard apple, Maroochy Star. Good lines of red skinned custard apples have been selected this year and these will be subject to further assessment over the next few years. Rainfall has been disappointing for cane growers in the Isis Bundaberg area. Cane growers in the Maryborough area had been irrigating heavily as rainfall received at the start of the year has been disappointing. Good falls were received in March to help relieve the situation and growers have built on this good start to the current season. Soybean plantings in fallow land were reduced this year due to the wet conditions around planting time, but the crops that were planted are generally looking extremely good. With very little insect and disease pressure this season, most soybean growers are looking forward to a good soybean yield at harvest time.

South Region: Very dry and hot weather during December 2005 severely affected summer crop prospects. Storm rains which were received in early January 2006 saved some crops, but falls were very patchy, and in some cases included hail which damaged crops. Those crops planted on good subsoil moisture had good yield potential but the majority of crops planted on limited subsoil moisture failed to recover. There has been insufficient rain to plant winter crop in any quantity to this point.

On the Darling Downs, the sorghum harvest is complete. Large areas failed in the Northern and Central Downs as a result of continued hot dry conditions and many crops were baled or fed off. The low summer crop area planting could ensure a significant winter crop planting if sufficient rainfall is received in the Maranoa/Balonne and Western Downs. The area west of Roma requires at least 100mm of rain to proceed with winter crop planting as conditions are very dry. The area east of Roma needs a pre-planting rainfall to proceed. Sub soil moisture levels on the Western Downs need significant replenishment for winter crop planting.

RAINFALL (figure in brackets indicates average)

North Region: Babinda received 397mm (427) Cairns A/P 48mm (107), Malanda n/a (118), Ingham 116mm (126), Innisfail 239mm (n/a), Townsville 28mm (40), Tully n/a (n/a), Bowen 4mm (n/a), Charters Towers 48mm (n/a), Georgetown 32mm (10) and Normanton A/P n/a (n/a) and Proserpine A/P 40mm (n/a).

West Region: Birdsville A/P n/a (14), Boulia 1mm (14), Windorah 0mm (23), Cloncurry n/a (n/a), Mt Isa 6mm (17), Longreach 11mm (29), Muttaburra 17mm (22), Winton 22mm (23) and Charleville 2mm (41).

Central Region: Alpha recorded 7mm (40), Clermont 15mm (47), Springsure 26mm (47), Mackay 109mm (115), Yaamba 14mm (63), Biloela A/P n/a (n/a), Mt Larcom 5mm (63), Gladstone 4mm (70), Theodore 2mm (47), and Yeppoon 31mm (n/a).

South-East Region: Eidsvold recorded 3mm (44), Gayndah 13mm (41), Mundubbera 5mm (40),Esk 6mm (59), Kilkivan 5mm (49), Kingaroy 8mm (n/a), Nanango 12mm (48), Proston 5mm (45), and Beaudesert 33mm (76). On the coastal fringe Bundaberg received 6mm (69), Maryborough 32mm (78), Nambour 53mm (139) and Tewantin n/a (n/a).

South Region: Clifton 7mm (48), Dalby 12mm (n/a), Goondiwindi 14mm (n/a), Inglewood 11mm (43), Oakey 14mm (45), Pittsworth 17mm (44), Stanthorpe 8mm (52), Toowoomba AP 29mm (n/a),Warwick 8mm (n/a), Roma 4mm (n/a), Miles 5mm (n/a), St George A/P 1mm (n/a) and Taroom 45mm (42).

WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES

North Region: Above average rainfall throughout the region has seen good flows in all rivers and creeks with minor to major levels of flooding. Tinaroo and Burdekin dam storages are both at 100% capacity.

West Region: There is some surface water available in areas that received showers in the last month. Many areas in the central and northern parts of the region have received some water runoff into their dams and this has relieved the situation in the short term. Some areas in the south west of the region are now relying on the great artesian basin as most dams have dried up.

Central Region: Rainfall in the region was a little down on averages for most centres. Many streams experienced only minor flows during May.

South East Region: Water availability is critical as farm water supplies and major storages remain under pressure. Underground aquifers are also continuing to drop in both level and quality thus reducing the availability from this source.

South Region: Stream flow was again well below average throughout the region, with the Balonne, Maranoa and Border Rivers catchments particularly bad. Apart from a very minor rise at Warwick in early April, there has been no runoff recorded in the Condamine River.

Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY

Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454

National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)

The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries.