SITUATION AS AT 4 DECEMBER 2006
OUTLOOK:
The monthly Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) values rose from minus 16.4
for October to minus 0.7 for November. Based on this shift in value the
SOI is now in a "Rapidly Rising" phase which gives a mixed seasonal
outlook across Queensland. Based on the SOI and historical rainfall
records, for December through to the end of February there is a 50 to
70% chance of getting median rainfall for south west Queensland, a 20 to
40% chance of getting median rainfall for central and northern
Queensland and a 40 to 60% chance of getting median rainfall across the
rest of the state.
Information on ocean temperatures in the central Pacific (running
eastward along the equator from the international dateline) continues to
indicate a warming trend characteristic of an El Nino. If this pattern
persists it most likely will have a drying effect on expected rainfall
in spring and early summer as it did this winter over much of eastern
Australia. A common feature of an El Nino SST pattern is a later than
normal start to the monsoon season. Its effect (or impact on expected
rainfall) is usually less noticeable by mid to late summer.
Based on soil water conditions at the end of October and the seasonal
rainfall outlook for November to January most cropping regions in
central and southern Queensland have a below to very much below average
crop yield expectation. Throughout northern NSW, sorghum shire yield
forecasts are marginally higher and closer to average. As it is early in
the growing season, widespread useful rain would improve the current
outlook. The regional sorghum crop outlook is based on the assumption of
cropping after a winter fallow and does not take into account effects of
poor crop nutrition or damage due to pests, diseases, heat or frosts.
STATE OVERVIEW:
Conditions remain dry across the State. However, there were some areas
around the Granite Belt and Eastern Downs that received good falls of up
to 130mm. While the majority of livestock are generally holding average
condition once again this is mainly due to lower than average stocking
numbers and the use of supplementation feeding. In general there is very
little in the way of quality pasture. Water supply reports have been
varied with some properties having adequate supplies and others needing
to cart water.
Following recommendations from the Local Drought Committees (LDCs), the
Minister for Primary Industries and Fisheries drought declared Gayndah,
Mundubbera, Monto and Eidsvold Shires as at 2 November 2006. As at 30
November 2006 there are 71 shires and 4 part shires drought declared
under State processes, which is equivalent to 62.5% of the land area of
the State. There are also 109 Individually Droughted Properties (IDPs)
in a further 18 shires as at 4 December 2006.
REGIONAL SUMMARIES:
North Region: Rainfall was below average over most of northern
Queensland during November with some places, such as Charters Towers, Mt
Garnet and Coen recording no rain. Maximum temperatures were generally
above average with very hot days occurring late in the month due to hot
north westerly winds. This hot weather placed increase pressure on water
supplies for livestock. The cane harvest is entering the final stages
with some northern mills already finished while others will be crushing
right up to Christmas. The wet conditions this year have made harvesting
difficult in all regions although there have been no reports of cane
left to stand-over in the fields. On the Atherton Tablelands farmers
have commenced ground preparation for summer crops of peanuts and maize.
West Region: Rainfall for November was limited to a few reasonable falls
at Charleville with 32mm, Barcaldine 23mm, 14mm at Blackall and 28mm at
Tambo. While the higher falls were a welcome relief the extremes of
temperature have generally limited any pasture or herbage growth. Mulga
is starting to deteriorate and is likely to fall away with high
temperatures expected over December. In the Cunnamulla, Quilpie,
Windorah and Birdsville areas properties continue to destock, selling
off the core breeders. The north west is in reasonable condition
although pasture is starting to hay off in the absence of rain.
Central Region: Overall conditions in the Central region are dry to
extremely dry. Emerald/Peak Downs and part of the Bauhinia Shire are
experiencing feed shortages although there has been some response to
recent rain. Other districts are generally in the same situation with
pastures in poor condition. Areas that did receive useful falls of rain
this month have responded well although the current hot conditions will
quickly burn off the new pastures. Cattle are still in fair to good
condition although lactation along with the extreme heat is taking its
toll on breeders.
South-East Region: Rainfall during the month has varied with some
centres receiving above average rainfall and others below average.
However, there has been no significant rainfall that will eliminate the
rainfall deficits of the last twelve month period. Hot conditions,
increased evaporation rates and the lack of follow-up rainfall have
caused many areas to remain dry despite the rain. Livestock condition
varies throughout the region while the hot weather and continuing dry
conditions have made feed growth slow.
South Region: November was a month of extremes with a mix of a frost and
intense heat. The best reported falls were within the Granite Belt and
eastern Downs areas with falls of up to 130mm. The western areas
received less rain with only 20mm recorded in the Maranoa and Balonne
districts. Pasture response varied depending on where the rain fell. The
heat and windy conditions also limited grass production. Supplementary
feeding and stock sales continue to rise as a consequence of limited
pasture availability. Some sorghum and maize crops on the Downs have
been affected by frosts. Cotton planting has been reduced due to the
limited availability of irrigation water. Pasture availability is below
average for most of the region. Stock condition will continue to fall
unless there is significant rain over the next few months. The dry
conditions are expected to substantially reduce summer crop yield
potential.
LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES:
North Region: Extended dry periods combined with hot daily temperatures
late in November have decreased pasture quality and quantity across the
region. Generally most areas are in the normal decline for this time of
the year. Livestock condition has slipped and protein supplementation
are now common place until storm rains arrive. In the Mareeba stock
district there has been no significant rain recorded. Showers around
Lakeland and Laura have produced some pick however a line of storms
brought a lot of fires which have burnt out large areas of Cape York.
Stock in the Normanton district are in reasonable condition for this
time of year. There is still generally a good body of grass available
although this is quickly drying off. Cattle across the Georgetown
district are generally in good condition. Overall there is a reasonable
body of grass across the region. There has been a reduction in the
quality of the feed, although generally both the quality and quantity of
the pasture is well above average for this time of year. In the Malanda
and Innisfail districts cattle appear to be in good condition. Pastures
have dried off although surface water is readily available. Across the
Charters Towers region pasture condition has started to decline as
average daily temperatures increase. Surface supplies of water have
started to recede although bore supplies generally appear adequate.
Livestock are in reasonable condition for this time of year although
breeders with calves at foot are requiring supplementation. The coastal
areas of the Bowen district are still in reasonable condition and water
remains in fair supply along the coast, with most pastures generally
ranging from short to fair depending on previous condition and rain
received. Around the Collinsville district and to the west and south
west of the area, there are reports of properties experiencing
difficulties with both a shortage of feed and water.
West Region: Stock condition remains generally good within the region
although breeding stock are starting to feel the effects of the high
temperatures. Stocking rates for the majority of the south and central
west still remain low which has allowed cattle to maintain reasonable
condition. Stock are being moved out of the Cunnamulla and Quilpie
shires as producers elect not to drought feed. Producers in the Boulia,
Bulloo and Diamantina shires are also moving stock off as feed
deteriorates. Conditions have continued to deteriorate in the southern
and central areas of the region, with hot day time temperatures drying
out what little moisture is still available, making pastures crumble
under foot. The northern areas still remain reasonably good, with cattle
continuing to gain weight due to lower than normal stocking rates. In
the north west stock generally remain in good condition. However, areas
around the south of Dajarra, Duchess and Phosphate are in poor condition
and are struggling with quality and quantity. In the central west both
cattle and sheep remain in reasonable condition, with only lactating
stock showing any real effects from the dry conditions. In the southern
and western areas of the Winton shire cattle are score 2 and 3 and
losing condition due to pasture running out. Drought feeding is
occurring across the majority of the district with the usual dry season
supplements of dry lick and some production feeding of molasses based
products.
Central Region: Across the region most stock are generally in fair to
good condition. Drought feeding is occurring on most properties although
fodder supplies are starting to become harder to source. The majority of
the speargrass country is in a very poor state and weeds may become a
huge risk with rain. The western parts of the region are better than the
country further east. Around Biloela rainfall has been below average
although where rainfall fell this has allowed some grain growers to
plant crops. Given this, not all cropping areas have benefited
sufficiently from the rain and many crops are now being fed off. Stock
condition ranges from poor to fair although this can be attributed to
stocking rates, feeding regimes and rainfall received. Drought feeding
is occurring in most areas of the shire. Pastures are low, dry and
lacking any quality or quantity. In the south of Banana shire paddocks
are bare. Other parts of the shire are only marginally better. Those
parts of the shire that did receive rainfall report little pasture
response. Pasture that did grow is now deteriorated or has been fully
utilised. Throughout the Emerald area both the quality and quantity of
feed has responded well to the recent rain. This has made things look
green again although follow up rain is still required. Very hot
conditions now exist and the fresh feed is burning off quickly. Jericho
shire is still in reasonable condition with a body of dry feed generally
existing over the majority of the area. Stock are in fair condition. In
the Fitzroy shire pasture is very light both in quantity and quality.
While some rainfall was received in November further falls are still
required to assist continued pasture growth. Areas west of Mt Morgan
towards Dululu have generally received enough rain to ensure dams and
crops can be sustained for a few more weeks. Supplementary feeding is
still required especially in the Mount Morgan area. Duaringa shire has
received varied amounts of rain, although it has not been equally
received through out the district.
South-East Region: Livestock condition continues to vary widely
throughout the region. Producers in some areas have been able to reduce
the amount of supplement currently fed to stock although feed supplies
are generally becoming difficult to source. The hot weather and the
continuing dry conditions have made feed growth slow. This is
particularly evident on those pastures that have been heavily grazed
leaving little or no ground cover. The situation in near-coastal areas
is more favourable with livestock generally in better condition.
Livestock condition is now very dependent on day to day weather
conditions and how much feed that producers can continue to source.
Agistment is generally very hard to find. Most stock movements now are
either to slaughter or sale as stores. Cattle prices have continued to
fall over the month with lighter cattle losing considerable value.
Supplementation and drought feeding of stock had slowed in areas where
rain has fallen. Water continues to be an issue with dams and bores
regularly drying up. Pasture quality and quantity is generally improving
in areas where there has been adequate rain, mainly along the coast.
However without any subsoil moisture the new grass growth has been
drying off quickly in the hot weather. There are now large areas that
have become denuded and very bare pastures that will require a lot of
rain to recover.
South Region: Dry cattle body condition ranges between fat score 2 to 3
category. Cows with calves have dropped further in condition. Graziers
continue to reduce herd and flock numbers to ensure survival/production
through the summer months. Large numbers have been sold over the drought
period. A number of properties from the Booringa shire have moved stock
to the Hughenden district on agistment. There was some response to the
rain that fell this month although there is also widespread
supplementary feeding throughout the region. The heat and the lack of
follow on rain limited production for many areas. Water carting
operations have increased. The available on-farm stock water supplies
will determine short to medium term carrying capabilities of properties.
CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE:
North Region: On the Tablelands legume ground preparation is occurring
for planting of summer crops of peanuts and maize and some peanut crops
have already been planted. In the wet tropics warm weather has generally
provided ideal growing conditions for bananas. Cyclone damaged areas are
nearing return to full production while papaya growers are planting and
reasonable lychee crops are being harvested. Mango picking is underway
across the region and overall fruit quality appears good. In the Bowen
district the vegetable cropping season is finished and cover crops have
been planted. While dry conditions continued this month there have been
no reports of delays to cane harvesting or planting operations.
Central Region: The first half of November saw some welcome storm rain
in most parts of the Dawson and Callide Valleys while the remainder of
the month generally remained dry and hot. The rain was variable with
most falls in the range of 40 - 130 mm but there were isolated reports
of 30 mm and more than 175 mm from some properties. Hail was also
reported from storms causing significant hail damage to some sorghum and
watermelon crops in the southern Callide Valley. With the winter crop
harvest over rain has started to refill soil profiles that were
completely dry after the winter crop. However, most of the moisture has
disappeared quickly due to the hot, dry conditions that followed. The
few areas planted to mungbeans and sorghum should benefit significantly
from the rain as most are either flowering or filling grain. In the
Central Highlands small areas of sorghum have been planted in irrigation
areas. Given the large area that was planted to winter crops in 2006,
most growers will need decent rain to wet the profile as most paddocks
just harvested will have very little moisture.
South-East Region: Across the south east region there have been large
areas of corn, sorghum and peanuts planted. Those crops that received
follow up rain are generally doing well. However there are many
cropping areas in the Burnett that have moisture stressed crops that are
not expected to yield at all in the current conditions. Overall the
current crop prospects are poor without immediate rain. Rainfall during
November was well below normal with almost all rain falling during the
first ten days of the month. Hail damage was reported on several
properties in the Woombye (avocado, lychee and passionfruit) and Yandina
(ginger) areas as a result of a storm at the beginning of November.
Spring flowering of avocados in South East Queensland has been good
although it is too early to assess how good fruit set has been. There
are however good reports of fruit set with custard apples in
hand-pollinated orchards this spring. Many citrus orchards in the
Burnett were badly affected by hailstorms early in the month. This is
expected to significantly affect production.
South Region: Unseasonably cold weather and high winds, experienced mid
November, resulted in a dramatic drop in temperatures across the Darling
Downs and Southern Border Districts. Temperatures recorded during the
middle of the month were low enough to cause widespread frosts and
sleet. As a consequence there was damage to early planted summer crops.
Current soil conditions and the seasonal rainfall outlook indicate below
average sorghum yield expectations for the region. Frosts on the Darling
Downs caused varying degrees of damage, with southern districts
generally reporting more severe damage. Seedling sorghum crops
generally escaped damage. Crops grown on narrow valley floors, low lying
creek flats appear hardest hit. Grain sorghum plantings around the
Border Rivers district are generally low for this time of the year. In
the Maranoa/Balonne region there has generally been very little if any
grain sorghum planted. Cotton plantings have also been low with 1% of
cotton planted in the Dirranbandi area and 20% in the St. George
irrigation area. Across the Western Downs there was generally
insufficient moisture to plant cereal crops. The Granite Belt district
reported good falls of between 120 to 140 mm. This has assisted to
recharge farm dams. The frost in mid November had limited impact in this
area and a large portion of stone fruit was harvested and the vegetables
did not record any major losses. Water storages appear adequate.
RAINFALL (figure in brackets indicates average)
North Region: Babinda received 33mm (222) Cairns A/P 27mm (n/a),
Malanda n/a (106), Ingham 7mm (112), Innisfail 39mm (n/a), Townsville
0.4mm (55), Tully 4mm (170), Bowen 4mm (n/a), Charters Towers 0.0mm
(n/a), Georgetown 4mm (63) and Normanton A/P 28mm (n/a) and Proserpine
A/P 6mm (n/a).
West Region: Birdsville A/P n/a (12), Boulia 1mm (19), Windorah 0.6mm
(16), Cloncurry 4mm (n/a), Mt Isa 5mm (24), Longreach 4mm (23),
Muttaburra n/a (31), Winton 5mm (28) and Charleville 33mm (42).
Central Region: Alpha recorded 36 (46), Clermont 20mm (64), Springsure
47mm (66), Mackay 25mm (88), Yaamba 43mm (67), Biloela A/P 81mm (86), Mt
Larcom 68mm (89), Gladstone 43mm (81), Theodore 66mm (86), and Yeppoon
64mm (n/a).
South-East Region: Eidsvold recorded 85mm (78), Gayndah 98mm (n/a),
Mundubbera 122mm (80), Esk 115mm (87), Kilkivan 65mm (81), Kingaroy 54mm
(n/a), Nanango 46mm (85), Proston 85mm (76), and Beaudesert 70mm (93).
On the coastal fringe Bundaberg received 52mm (101), Maryborough 118mm
(105), Nambour 73mm (108) and Tewantin 95mm (n/a).
South Region: Clifton 89mm (85), Dalby 55mm (n/a), Goondiwindi 24mm
(n/a), Inglewood n/a (69),
Oakey 64mm (81), Pittsworth 124mm (83), Stanthorpe 130mm (85), Toowoomba
AP 90mm (n/a), Warwick 162mm (n/a), Roma 54mm (n/a), Miles 41mm (n/a),
St George A/P 29mm (n/a) and Taroom 66mm (75).
WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES
North Region: Water storages are in reasonable supply for this time of
the year. The major water storages at Tinaroo and Burdekin Dams are at
77% and 83% respectively.
West Region: Surface water continues to recede rapidly with a number of
dams and waterholes now becoming boggy and requiring fencing off to
divert stock onto troughs filled from the artesian basin.
Central Region: Most surface storages across the region remain unchanged
with the majority of water courses having received very little flows.
Many bore levels are dropping and water cartage is occurring in some
shires.
South-East Region: There have been no significant rainfall events to
alleviate deficits over the last 12 month period. Hot conditions have
increased evaporation rates and the lack of follow-up rainfall has
caused many areas to remain dry.
South Region: Water supplies remain adequate for those properties that
have bores although surface water storage remains a problem. Water
carting operations have increased as dams continue to dry up.
Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY
Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454
National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)
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The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries. |
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