SITUATION AS AT 31 OCTOBER 2006
OUTLOOK:
The monthly Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) values have dropped from
minus 4.6 for September to minus 16.4 for October. Based on this shift
in value the SOI is now in a "Rapidly Falling" phase which gives a mixed
seasonal outlook across Queensland.
Based on a "Rapidly Falling" SOI phase and historical rainfall records
for November through to the end of January the chance of getting above
median rainfall throughout southern Queensland varies between 30 to 50%.
The chance of getting above median rainfall throughout central and
northern Queensland is generally lower and varies between 10 to 40%. The
main exception is for the far north west of the state along the Northern
Territory border where there is a 50 to 70% chance of getting above
median rainfall for November to January.
Information on ocean temperatures in the central Pacific (running
eastward along the equator from the international dateline) continues to
indicate a warming trend characteristic of an El Nino. If this pattern
persists it most likely will have a drying effect on our expected
rainfall in spring and early summer as it did this winter over much of
eastern Australia. A common feature of an El Nino SST pattern is a later
than normal start to the monsoon season. Its effect (or impact on
expected rainfall) is usually less noticeable by mid to late summer for
the northern half of Australia.
STATE OVERVIEW:
Overall conditions throughout the state have generally remained dry with
little or no relief from rain. While the north region has generally been
reasonable throughout the grazing areas the remainder of Queensland has
not been as fortunate. Conditions are declining with most pastures
generally looking average to below. Livestock are holding well for now
although without any significant rainfall events in the near future
livestock condition is expected to fall. As many properties are still
heavily destocked, this has eased some pressure on those animals that
have remained. Water continues to be an issue with water courses not
running and dams and bores drying up. Reports are being received that
many producers are now carting water.
Following recommendations from the Banana and Maryborough Local Drought
Committees (LDCs), the Minister for Primary Industries and Fisheries
drought declared Banana Shire as at 23 October 2006 and Biggenden Shire
as at 24 October 2006. As at 31 October 2006 there are 67 shires and 4
part shires drought declared under State processes, which is equivalent
to 61.1% of the land area of the State. There are also 64 Individually
Droughted Properties (IDPs) in a further 8 shires as at 2 November 2006.
REGIONAL SUMMARIES:
North Region: Conditions throughout the region could be seen as normal
for this time of the year with some thunderstorm activity and increasing
daily maximum temperatures. The drier conditions this month provided
ideal harvesting conditions for cane growers as they work to get their
crops harvested before Christmas. The potential for cane to be left
standover in the field is still a risk if there are any more delays to
harvesting or crushing operations. The vegetable cropping season is
winding down in the Bowen district and overall it has been a fair season
for both prices and yields. The season has been reasonable throughout
the northern grazing areas and cattle are in as good a condition as you
could hope for at this time of the year. The cattle market in the north
remains strong compared to southern areas where a drought enforced sell
down of stock is forcing prices down.
West Region: The rainfall for October was limited to insignificant falls
being recorded right across the region. An isolated narrow storm that
floated around to the north east of Blackall reported a high of 17.5mm
on one property but mainly delivered around 7.5mm to 10mm. Conditions
continue to decline and areas around the central-west still have not
received any beneficial rain. Pastures have deteriorated with annual
grasses disappearing and some districts almost completely destocked. The
total standing dry matter for the south-west and central-west areas is
less than 250kg DM/ha whilst the north-west ranges from 500 to 10 000kg
DM/ha, but mainly averaging 1500 to 2500kg DM/ha.
Central Region: Conditions remain dry across the region and there has
been no significant rainfall to report. Areas in the south are
particularly bad with water cartage beginning on some properties.
Pastures range from completely bare to fair. This depends on the amount
of relief rainfall received in autumn and stocking/grazing pressure.
Cattle are holding condition in most instances but this could change
sharply if there is not an early break. Breeders in the process of
calving or recently calved are expected to struggle with the extra
nutritional requirements needed. Drought feeding is starting in many
areas around Theodore, Banana and Biloela. Supplementary feeding is
happening in most other areas. Fodder is becoming increasingly difficult
to find locally.
South-East Region: Rainfall during the month has been well below average
for all centres. Many of the usually favoured coastal areas have also
had minimal rain. Winds during the month and hotter temperatures have
compounded existing problems. Where rain has fallen pasture quality and
quantity has improved. Livestock condition varies widely throughout the
region with many properties still undertaking a drought feeding program.
Water continues to be an issue.
South Region: Throughout the region there has been a major rainfall
deficit over the past eleven months which has had a negative affect
pasture and crop production. During the month of October only 5mm to
15mm of rain was reported. Winter herbage and forage crop production was
limited which has had an adverse effect on livestock condition. Pasture
availability is generally average to below and as a result supplementary
feeding and stock sales have increased. Stock condition is expected to
fall unless there is significant rain over the coming months. Overall
crops have survived on stored moisture over the last few months. Cereal
grain yield is well below average with cotton planting likely to be
severely reduced due to limited irrigation water. Wheat yields are
likely to be considerably reduced as a result of the ongoing dry
conditions.
LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES:
North Region: October has generally seen a return to normal conditions
with a few isolated storms starting to occur across the region. Pastures
are generally in better condition than would be expected late in the dry
season and livestock are in good condition are a result. In the Mareeba
stock district showers brought good falls along the wet coast. Generally
they were not well received in the cane areas as it disrupted
harvesting, although in the Daintree area falls to 100-140 mm were
beneficial to cattle pastures. Pastures are still generally abundant
across most areas and showing uncharacteristic quantity. In some cases
pastures are still green. Stock condition is reasonable for this time of
year around Normanton. There is still a good body of grass available but
this is quickly drying off. Most of the rivers and creeks have ceased to
flow although surface water does not currently appear to be a problem.
Cattle in the Georgetown district are generally in good condition
although cows with calves are starting to slip. Generally there is a
reasonable body of grass available. Throughout the Malanda stock
district cattle appear to be in good condition. Pastures have greened up
with recent rain and good growth is seen throughout the Eacham and
Atherton areas. Surface water is readily available and Tinaroo dam is
close to capacity. Around Charters Towers pastures are declining in
quality but overall are still reasonably good for this time of year.
Surface water supplies have started to recede with increased daily
temperatures although bore supplies appear adequate. Livestock are in
reasonable condition. The coastal areas of the Bowen district are still
in fair shape for the foreseeable future for feed and water, provided an
average start to the wet season is received. West and south west of
Collinsville some properties are experiencing difficulties with both
pasture and water shortages. Pastures range from short to fair depending
on previous condition and rains received. Livestock range from good to
score 1 with stock numbers in the district estimated at 60% of normal
stocking rates. Drought feeding is now taking place across most of the
district as opposed to normal supplementation.
West Region: Stock condition generally remains good across the west
region, which has mainly been achieved through low stocking rates.
Drought feeding has increased this month in the southern and central
areas. In the north of the region, the majority of producers are only
feeding their standard dry season lick. Generally hot dry days are
drying out pastures which has now increased the risk of fires. Generally
across the north west most livestock are holding condition with the
exception of around Cloncurry where wet cattle are falling away. Around
the Mt Isa district the majority of livestock are generally in better
than average condition for this time of the year. Livestock movements
have mainly been confined to cattle going into feedlots prior to sale.
Pasture quality and quantity varies throughout the region although is
reasonably good for this time of the year. There are some exceptions
around the south of Dajarra, Duchess, Phosphate and Osbourne Mine where
pastures are poor. With the exception of the Richmond shire there does
not appear to be any significant drought feeding occurring. Livestock in
the central district appear to be holding condition. Destocking
continues in Boulia shire. Drought feeding is increasing in line with
the decline of feed availability. In the south west stock condition
ranges from score 1 to 5 with the majority generally around 2 to 3. Most
stock have maintained condition, assisted by lower stocking numbers with
the majority of properties only holding onto core breeders. Pasture
quality and quantity has deteriorated as strong hot winds dry out what
little moisture is still available in pasture plants. Mulga is still in
reasonable condition although depleting very quickly.
Central Region: Stock condition is generally good across the central
region although calving has commenced and condition is expected to
deteriorate more rapidly. Properties with dry feed are using supplements
and those with little bulk are seeking agistment in other areas. With
little or no rainfall in the last three months the Central Highlands
region is still experiencing hot, dry conditions. Cattle on the better
country are generally in good condition but most paddocks have little
feed. There has been a steady increase in the number of cattle being fed
or supplemented especially those cattle on poorer country. Many of these
cattle are generally in very poor condition. Producers have managed low
pasture availability by selling early in response to good prices or
sending cattle to feedlots. Stock condition in the Biloela district
ranges from poor to fair with drought feeding occurring across most
areas of the district. Pastures are low, dry and lacking any quality. In
the south of Banana shire paddocks are bare and water supplies are
becoming a concern. No useful rainfall has been recorded over the
Rockhampton stock district during the month. Livestock condition remains
fair across the district although some cattle, particularly those with
calves at foot, are in lighter condition. Overall there has been very
little sign of weak stock. Around Alpha pastures are continuing to
decline as the temperatures rise and the chance of rain remains low.
Supplementation feeding of cattle has increased. In the Emerald district
both the quality and quantity of feed continues to fall away.
South-East Region: Livestock condition varies widely throughout the
region. Many producers have budgeted on supplementing stock to this
point in time but are now beginning to run out of feed supplies. With
warmer weather and the continuing dry conditions any soil moisture is
quickly gone and feed growth is slow. This is particularly evident on
those pastures that have been heavily grazed leaving little or no ground
cover. The situation in near-coastal areas is more favourable with
livestock generally in better condition. Agistment is hard to source
with most stock movements being to slaughter or sale as stores. Cattle
prices have continued to fall over the month with the lighter cattle
generally losing considerable value. As a result many producers are now
holding on to cattle to see if there is a break in the weather.
Supplementation and drought feeding of stock had slowed in areas where
rain has fallen although many properties are still drought feeding.
Water continues to be an issue with dams and bores regularly drying up.
Pasture quality and quantity is improving in those areas where there has
been adequate rain. This has generally been along the coast. However
without any subsoil moisture the new grass growth has been drying off
quickly on the hotter days that are becoming more prevalent.
South Region: Producers continue to reduce herd and flock numbers to
ensure survival/production through to summer. Dry cattle condition is
generally fat score 2 to 3. Cows with calves appear to be slipping
further. Large numbers have already been sold as part of many producers'
drought management strategies. The available on-farm stock water
supplies should determine short to medium term carrying capabilities of
most properties. There is widespread supplementary feeding being
undertaken across the whole region given a poor 2005/06 summer crop and
well below average winter crop production. Although the bulk of the
region's pasture is low in quantity and quality the Border Rivers
district generally has better quantities of standing feed. Herbage
production was low due to a dry winter and the little that was grown has
burnt off with the warmer weather. The need to cart water has increased
as surface water supplies fall.
CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE:
North Region: On the Tablelands legume seed crops of Stylo, Siratro,
Burgundy bean and Amarillo peanut are being harvested with reasonable
yields. Crops of Bisset, Rhodes and Jarra grass planted out of season
after Cyclone Larry were not very successful and about two thirds failed
due to cooler than normal conditions. These crops were cut for hay
during the month, which will now have them back in their normal growing
cycle. Some very early peanut crops have gone in with the major planting
to occur in November. At Innisfail banana growers have commenced ground
work in replant blocks destroyed by Cyclone Larry. Pawpaw growers are
preparing for spring plantings. On the Tablelands the potato harvest is
past halfway and yields and prices have generally been good. In the
Bowen district the cropping season is in its final stages and overall
experienced a reasonable season. Dry conditions this month have been
welcome by cane farmers after a run of wet months over winter delayed
harvesting and planting operations. In the Herbert district after wet
weather delays over the last few months harvesting it is now back on
track but sugar content has been affected and a late finish to the
crushing season will occur. On the Atherton Tablelands the cane crop has
been yielding around 96 t/ha which is up from previous years. The
harvest is entering its final stages and should be finished by the end
of November. The crush in the Burdekin is three quarters through an
estimated 8.4 M/tonne crop and is expected to finish mid to late
December. Ratoon crops are growing well.
Central Region: October has been another dry month in the Dawson and
Callide Valleys. The lack of rain has been favourable for the region's
wheat harvest, which has been all but completed by the end of the month.
Yields in the later planted crops were generally not as good as those
planted in May, with many growers averaging 2.0-2.5 t/ha from their
wheat and barley crops. There have been some drier spots where yields
have been a bit lower than this and some more favoured areas averaging
up to 3.0 t/ha. All of the chickpea crops have now been harvested with
most yields in the 1.5 - 2.5 t/ha range. There has been some stubble
baled due to strong demand for drought feed in some southern areas.
However, the result has been good overall given the conditions in most
other grain producing areas in Australia. The few spring sorghum crops
are progressing well despite the lack of rain as they were generally
planted on a full profile of moisture. Winter crop harvest is complete
on the Central Highlands with many farmers in the area north of Capella
through to Clermont and Kilcummin reporting averages for wheat crops of
2.3-2.5 t/ha. In the Gindie, Comet, Orion and Rolleston area crops were
moderate to good which was better than expected given the rainfall
received. Tree crops like lychee and mango have flowered well but there
is some concern about fruit development/quality particularly in lychees
due to the cool conditions. Availability of water is still a major issue
with irrigators who rely on overland flow and underground supplies.
South-East Region: Rainfall during October for the south east coastal
region was well below normal. Only a few of the late planted winter
crops have yielded as expected and have been fed off or will have a
summer crop planted into them. A small number of farms have taken the
risk and planted early crops of corn on very minimal soil moisture.
These crops are stressed and may need to be replanted if rain is not
received. Spring flowering in avocados has been good but it is too early
to assess how good fruit set has been. Translucency in pineapples has
been worse than normal for this time of year. There is some concern with
macadamia crops that despite excellent flowering, pollination may have
been poor and that subsequent nut set will be poor. This is especially
so in the Bundaberg region. Strawberry harvesting season is generally
finished and many growers are now spraying out crops in preparation for
lifting plastic mulches, cultivating and planting a break crop. A small
number of growers are expected to keep harvesting until high
temperatures cause fruit quality to deteriorate.
South Region: The cereal yield potential is limited across the Darling
Downs although there are pockets south of Toowoomba, Clifton and Warwick
where crops are reasonable. On-farm and irrigation water storages are
poor placing the summer crop in an uncertain position. The area
available for cotton planting is likely to be reduced significantly.
Light rains should allow planting of summer crops on low soil moisture
profiles although if heavy rains are received they could cause extensive
erosion damage given the large areas of bare fallow ground. There has
been widespread planting across the Border Rivers district throughout
winter, however rainfall did not eventuate at the critical periods to
maintain production. The better areas within the district generally
appeared to be around Talwood, Thallon and Nindigully. The Maranoa
district has generally had limited winter planting opportunities with
earlier planted crops becoming moisture stressed and went to head while
the later planted crops were fed off to stock. Generally, sub-soil
moisture levels need significant replenishment before a summer crop can
be planted with confidence. The Western Downs received insufficient
rainfall to plant cereal crops. Soil moisture profiles will require
substantial replenishment prior to this year's summer crop planting.
Vegetable growers in the Granite Belt region are reasonably optimistic
for the upcoming season. Water storages appear adequate for this time of
the year. Apple trees blossomed earlier than normal due to warmer than
usual weather. Irrigation of stonefruit trees has taken place for this
year's production although further watering will be required at the end
of November.
RAINFALL (figure in brackets indicates average)
North Region: Babinda received 142mm (109) Cairns A/P 69mm (44),
Malanda n/a (50), Ingham 75mm (47), Innisfail 128mm (n/a), Townsville
6mm (25), Tully 194mm (97), Bowen 11mm (n/a), Charters Towers 0.5mm
(n/a), Georgetown 0.0mm (18) and Normanton A/P 0.0mm (n/a) and
Proserpine A/P 25mm (n/a).
West Region: Birdsville A/P n/a (12), Boulia 1mm (13), Windorah 0.8mm
(17), Cloncurry 0.0mm (n/a), Mt Isa 0.0mm (20), Longreach 2mm (18),
Muttaburra n/a (22), Winton 5mm (16) and Charleville 0.4mm (31).
Central Region: Alpha recorded n/a (34), Clermont 0.0mm (36), Springsure
7mm (42), Mackay 13mm (39), Yaamba 1mm (42), Biloela A/P 1mm (61), Mt
Larcom 0.8mm (59), Gladstone .04mm (61), Theodore n/a (64), and Yeppoon
8mm (n/a).
South-East Region: Eidsvold recorded 6mm (66), Gayndah 0.4mm (n/a),
Mundubbera 4mm (71), Esk 21mm (82), Kilkivan 15mm (75), Kingaroy 12mm
(n/a), Nanango 5mm (79), Proston 11mm (70), and Beaudesert 44mm (74).
On the coastal fringe Bundaberg received 2mm (67), Maryborough 6mm (75),
Nambour 25mm (107) and Tewantin 33mm (n/a).
South Region: Clifton n/a (67), Dalby 1mm (n/a), Goondiwindi 2mm (n/a),
Inglewood n/a (58),
Oakey 4mm (61), Pittsworth n/a (67), Stanthorpe 14mm (76), Toowoomba AP
5mm (n/a), Warwick 0.4mm (n/a), Roma 7mm (n/a), Miles 0.4mm (n/a), St
George A/P 1mm (n/a) and Taroom 9mm (60).
WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES
North Region: Water storages are full to near full across the region.
The major water storages at Tinaroo and Burdekin Dams are at 86% and 91%
respectively.
West Region: Surface water continues to recede rapidly with many dams
and waterholes drying out.
Central Region: Water appears to be an issue across the majority of the
region. Water carting is now occurring as dam levels drop and most water
courses lack any significant flows.
South-East Region: Rainfall received during October for the south east
coastal region was well below normal. Water is now an issue as dams and
bores continue to dry up.
South Region: Stream flow is well below average across all catchments
throughout the region with no general recovery in the aquifers. Water
storage levels remain low in the upper Condamine and Macintyre-Dumaresq
rivers.
Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY
Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454
National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)
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The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries. |
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