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page regenerated:
07 Aug 2008

OUTLOOK:

Based on a 'Consistently Negative' Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) phase at the end of September and historical rainfall data, the chance of getting above median rainfall for October through to the end of December throughout central and northern Queensland is between 20 to 40%. For southern Queensland there has been a slight improvement to the outlook with a 30 to 50% chance of getting above median rainfall for October to December. The latitude of the sub-tropical ridge of high pressure has remained further south than normal over the last six months. This has contributed to rain and shower activity through increased flow of moist easterly winds. Its effect has been most noticeable across northern and coastal regions of Queensland. It will start to lose its influence on our climate patterns over spring and summer. Information on ocean temperatures in the central Pacific (running eastward along the equator from the international dateline) continues to indicate a warming trend. If this pattern persists it most likely will have a drying effect on our expected rainfall in spring and early summer (as it did this winter over much of eastern Australia) regardless of whether it is a 'classic' El Nino or not.

STATE OVERVIEW:

Some good rainfalls were received in the north and south-east of the State during September. Livestock condition varies throughout all regions although the majority of properties have destocked heavily. Pastures are variable across most regions and supplementary feeding is being incorporated to assist in maintaining body condition in some areas. The winter harvest is underway in the Dawson/Callide and small areas of spring sorghum have been planted where there was sufficient rainfall at the beginning of the month. Most of the southern cropping areas have had limited winter planting opportunities. There was widespread planting in the Border Rivers area but generally rain did not fall at the critical periods to maintain production.

There are currently 64 shires and 5 part shires drought declared under State processes, which is equivalent to 60.5% of the land area of the State. There are also 248 Individually Droughted Properties (IDPs) in a further 14 shires.

REGIONAL SUMMARIES:

North Region: After a wet start in the first week of the month the area experienced dry conditions for the remainder of September. Those big falls of rain early in the month resulted in some well above average monthly rainfall totals across the region. As a result there were record monthly rainfall totals broken on the north tropical coast with Paluma recording 366mm, Ingham 231mm and Cardwell 336mm. Coastal parts around Ingham and Innisfail were worst affected with flooding occurring causing delays in cane harvesting and planting operations. Livestock remain in reasonable condition at this stage of the season with a late wet season and a mild winter providing optimal pasture conditions.

West Region: Rainfall for September was generally limited to smaller falls. Hughenden had one fall of 8.2mm but this was mainly restricted to the township. The Central West still has not received any beneficial rain and pasture is deteriorating. Livestock are currently in a reasonable condition across the region as a result of the very low stocking rates. Drought feeding is continuing in the south and central areas of the region with average pasture quality and quantity in the northern areas.

Central Region: Conditions remain dry across the region. Some areas in the south of the region are in poor condition with some properties commencing water cartage. Falls were isolated and extremely patchy in September. Pasture availability is variable ranging from bare to fair. Generally cattle are holding in good condition and some properties are continuing with supplementary feeding. Crop harvesting is now in full swing in the Callide Dawson area. The sugar cane harvest is now approximately 67% complete. The fire risk is high with the increase of temperatures and hot winds with some areas already experiencing small fires.

South-East Region: Rainfall during the month has been average to above average in many locations across the region. Only the North Burnett received below average rainfalls for the month. Many of the heavier coastal falls were beneficial for crops and water supplies. In most areas of the region livestock are maintaining their condition. Pasture quality and quantity is improving but in some areas that have insufficient subsoil moisture the new grass growth has been drying off quickly. Ground preparation for summer crops is now occurring. Avocado harvesting of the Hass variety continued through September. Growers on the Sunshine Coast are harvesting this season's lowchill stonefruit crops.

South Region: Rainfall in the South region ranged from 10mm to 100mm for September. Good falls of between 50 to 90mm were recorded in the eastern portion of the region with the Western Downs, Balonne and Maranoa districts recording the lower falls. Livestock are falling away in body condition which has resulted in an increase in supplementary feeding. Overall, there has been little pasture growth and pastures are low in quality and quantity. Some winter dryland crops are moisture stressed. Surface water levels are continuing to fall in some areas of the region.

LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES:

North Region: Stock condition generally remains good across the region for this time of year. The regional situation at present is favourable overall with the exception in parts of the Charters Towers and Bowen districts which still have not received enough effective rainfall. September brought little relief and surface water is still an issue. In the Normanton, Mareeba, Gerogetown, and Malanda stock districts pastures remain better than average although in some areas pastures are beginning to dry off. In the Innisfail stock district pastures have improved with the warmer weather and the increase of rain during September. Pastures in the Bowen stock district generally range from short to fair depending on previous condition and the amount of rain received. Some producers in worse off areas are using urea based supplements with a protein derivative to enhance the available pasture. Coastal properties generally have good hayed off pastures.

West Region: Stock condition generally remains good across the region. This has mainly been achieved through low stocking rates. Areas around Cunnamulla, Boulia and Windorah still remain very dry with stock numbers also low. Properties in the Paroo, Boulia and Quilpie Shires are continuing to destock as pasture quality and quantities continue to deteriorate. Drought feeding is still continuing in the south and central areas of the region with dry season supplements of dry lick and cottonseed being fed. Pasture conditions have deteriorated in the southern and central areas of the region with hot dry day time temperatures drying out what little moisture there is and making the pasture crumble underfoot. In the north west of the region livestock generally remain in good condition with the majority of most sheep and cattle in forward store to fat condition. Pasture quality and quantity in the northern areas are still average with some cattle gaining weight generally due the low stocking rates on these properties.

Central Region: Livestock condition is generally good across the whole district. Those properties with little bulk are seeking agistment in other districts or have commenced supplementary feeding. Drought feeding has started in many areas around Theodore, Banana and Biloela. Pasture conditions across the region are variable and range from completely bare to fair. Native pastures that received rain this month have responded well with the increase of temperatures. Soil moisture in pastures has been decreasing due to the warmer weather. The area north of Jericho is looking well, due to the good subsoil moisture this country would have acquired from the flood a few months ago. Some producers are moving cattle to south of Jericho for agistment. Many graziers in other areas have managed low pasture availability by selling stock early in response to good prices or selling to feedlots.

South-East Region: In most areas of the region livestock are maintaining their condition as the weather warms up. Supplementation and drought feeding of stock has slowed with many areas now having enough short green feed for their stock. As rainfall across the region was generally above average for September, pasture quality and quantity is improving but in some areas that have insufficient subsoil moisture the new grass growth has been drying off quickly. Cows and calves on the new green feed are now doing well in the areas where rain was received.

South Region: Generally livestock condition across the region falls within fat score 2 to 3. Stock condition in some shires is slipping as the warmer weather arrives and nutritional stress of the winter months begins to show. Producers who have been supplementary feeding have generally found that their stock condition has remained stable throughout September. Many graziers are continuing to reduce herd and flock numbers to ensure good survival and production rates leading into summer. Limited on-farm stock water supplies will generally determine the short to medium term carrying capabilities of most properties. Drought feeding is occurring in many parts of the region. Some sources of supplementary feeds are becoming low in supply with producers having to travel further distances to source this feed or resort to different supplements. The majority of the pasture across the district is low in quantity and quality, although the Border Rivers district and Stanthorpe generally have better quantities of feed.

CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE:

North Region: On the Tablelands legume seed crops of Stylo, Siratro, Burgundy bean and Amarillo peanut are being harvested with reasonable yields. Some producer have planted their peanut crops early although the majority of planting will occur in November. Farmers have been busy preparing paddocks for summer crops. On the Tablelands the potato harvest is well underway and yields and prices have been generally good. In the Bowen district the cropping season is in full production with the harvesting of tomatoes, capsicums, beans and sweet corn ongoing. At Innisfail banana growers have commenced the ground work in replanting blocks that were destroyed by Cyclone Larry. Pawpaw growers are preparing for spring planting. After a wet start to the month cane farmers welcomed the dry conditions that persisted until the end of the month providing ideal harvesting and planting conditions. Coastal parts around Ingham and Innisfail were worst affected with flooding occurring causing delays in cane harvesting and planting operations. In the Tully district the crush is over half way although the yield is down on last year as a result of the cumulative effect of cyclone damage, a prolonged wet season and continual showers throughout the harvest period.

Central Region: September was a relatively dry month with temperatures starting to increase later in the month. Crop harvesting is now in full swing in the Callide Dawson area. Yields have generally been above average in the southern Callide and variable elsewhere. In most cases, yields in the Dawson Valley have been at or slightly below average with most of the crop there likely to be harvested by mid October. Small areas of spring sorghum have been planted where there was sufficient rain at the start of the month. However, as most of the area was planted to winter crops there may not be much more planting activity in the near future. Coastal horticulture conditions have improved with the recent falls of rain. The sugar cane harvest is now approximately 67% complete, with milling capacity and utilisation at acceptable levels with only minor slowdowns in the season to date.

South-East Region: Rainfall for much of the south east coastal region was well above average for September. Late planted crops have benefited greatly from this rain, although some of the crops are already going to head with the warmer weather and will not produce significant yields. Ground preparation for summer crops is now occurring and some corn crops have been planted. Avocado harvesting of the Hass variety continued through September. Coastal areas are now in the final stages of the avocado harvest, whilst inland production regions of the Blackall Range, Tamborine Mountain, Lockyer Valley and the Toowoomba Range will continue harvesting through October and into early November. Macadamia harvesting continued through September. The work load on pineapple farms increased in September with growers beginning planting programs, including flowering and with harvesting volumes beginning to increase after the winter lull. Growers on the Sunshine Coast are harvesting this season's stonefruit crops.

South Region: There were limited planting opportunities for winter crop cereals and winter rainfall was well below average. The majority of the region's cultivation area is below 50% soil moisture profile. Some winter dryland crops are moisture stressed and generally the soil moisture profiles remain low. On the Darling Downs on-farm irrigation water storages are poor. The area available for cotton planting is likely to reduce significantly. On the Granite Belt apple trees have begun to blossom due to the warmer than usual weather in September. Producers have commenced irrigating their lowchill stonefruit trees for this year's production.

RAINFALL (figure in brackets indicates average)

North Region: Babinda received 399mm (122) Cairns A/P 67mm (33), Malanda n/a (36), Ingham 231mm (33), Innisfail 140mm (n/a), Townsville 30mm (10), Tully n/a (n/a), Bowen 11mm (n/a), Charters Towers 28mm (n/a), Georgetown 1mm (5) and Normanton A/P 0.0mm (n/a) and Proserpine A/P 20mm (n/a).

West Region: Birdsville A/P n/a (4), Boulia 0.0mm (6), Windorah 0.0mm (9), Cloncurry 0.0mm (n/a), Mt Isa 0.6mm (8), Longreach 1mm (9), Muttaburra 2mm (10), Winton 0.0mm (7) and Charleville 5mm (21).

Central Region: Alpha recorded 14mm (18), Clermont 9mm (15), Springsure 9mm (26), Mackay 38mm (15), Yaamba 30mm (24), Biloela A/P n/a (n/a), Mt Larcom 42mm (22), Gladstone 62mm (24), Theodore 20mm (28), and Yeppoon 83mm (n/a).

South-East Region: Eidsvold recorded 8mm (29), Gayndah 16mm (30), Mundubbera 6mm (29), Esk 65mm (37), Kilkivan 34mm (31), Kingaroy 48mm (n/a), Nanango 76mm (33), Proston 21mm (31), and Beaudesert 36mm (38). On the coastal fringe Bundaberg received 45mm (30), Maryborough 43mm (29), Nambour 160mm (43) and Tewantin n/a (n/a).

South Region: Clifton 86mm (38), Dalby 11mm (n/a), Goondiwindi 23mm (n/a), Inglewood n/a (41), Oakey 52mm (32), Pittsworth 57mm (33), Stanthorpe 42mm (46), Toowoomba AP 61mm (n/a), Warwick 46mm (n/a), Roma 1mm (n/a), Miles 20mm (n/a), St George A/P 11mm (n/a) and Taroom 11mm (28).

WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES

North Region: Water storages are full to near full across the region. The major water storages at Tinaroo and Burdekin Dams are at 91% and 96% respectively.

West Region: Surface water availability has receded over September with a number of dams and waterholes now becoming boggy. Many producers are still relying on the Great Artesian Basin for water supply.

Central Region: The irrigation dam at Kinchant remains approximately 80% full and the Pioneer River has a flow level that has maintained weir catchments.

South-East Region: Despite some large falls of rain many inland areas of the region still have mediocre water supplies. Many old bores are now being used to supply water.

South Region: Stream flow was once again well below average across all catchments throughout the region. Surface water levels are continuing to fall in some areas of the region.

Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY

Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454

National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)

The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries.