SITUATION AS AT 31 AUGUST 2007
OUTLOOK:
According to the Queensland Climate Change Centre of Excellence, based
on a "Rapidly Rising" SOI phase at the end of August there is a 40 to
70% chance of getting median rainfall for September to November with the
highest rainfall probabilities (60 to 70%) being found throughout
Central Queensland. The exception is for the extreme far south west of
the state where there is a lower 20 to 40% chance of getting median
rainfall. Compared to this time last year, there has been a general
improvement in the seasonal outlook for Queensland.
There is another phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) apparently
developing in the Indian Ocean. While still only weak if it continues to
develop we could see the next passage of the MJO in 15 to 20 days (late
September). At this time of year we would usually expect to see a
greater impact on our rainfall across northern Australia as we enter
into spring and summer.
The MJO is a band of low air pressure originating off the east coast of
central Africa travelling eastward across the Indian Ocean and northern
Australia roughly every 30 to 60 days. Research has shown the MJO to be
a useful indicator of the timing of potential rainfall events (but not
amounts).
According to the Bureau of Meteorology in their "ENSO Wrap-up" the past
three months have seen conditions in the Pacific Ocean fluctuate. Since
late July, there has been a gradual strengthening of La Nina indicators.
STATE OVERVIEW:
August provided much needed rain in all areas of the South East. Record
breaking falls in the near coastal areas caused damaging floods and the
heavier falls were confined to coastal areas. Some watercourses and
dams have been topped up but the majority of them have missed out. The
rain however was very welcome and has saved many severely stressed
winter crops. The late unseasonable rain recorded in South Region has
improved summer crop and pasture prospects however generally did not
produce any significant herbage growth. Many crops in southern
districts have failed due to lack of in-crop rain. In Central
Queensland native pastures in areas that were already short remain in a
very poor state despite winter rain and in areas where summer rainfall
had been received response is still limited due to low temperatures.
After good winter rainfall in June in North Queensland and some recent
warmer weather there has been a rejuvenation of pasture growth at a time
when northern pastures are generally at their lowest nutritional levels.
The cane crush continues in all districts and apart from some minor
weather delays appears to be progressing well. In Western Queensland
pasture response across the region is varied from earlier rainfall.
Stock are generally holding in condition as a result of low stocking
rates.
Following recommendations from the Mackay and District Local Drought
Committee (LDC), the Minister for Primary Industries and Fisheries
revoked Mackay, Mirani and Sarina shires from drought status as at 13
August 2007. There are currently 82 shires and 2 part shires drought
declared under State processes, which is equivalent to 62.2% of the land
area of the State. There are also 17 Individually Droughted Properties
(IDPs) in a further five shires.
LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES:
North Region: North region remains in a stable position after rainfall
received earlier in June and July. The frost damage experienced in July
on the Atherton Tablelands has slowly receded and some green pasture
grass is now establishing. Overall livestock generally appear to be in
good condition to forward store especially for this time of the year.
Most cattle are expected to carry over until the earlier storms at the
end of the year. In the Mareeba district, dairy pastures with winter
ryegrass and legumes pastures are in very good condition. In the
Charters Towers district, pasture condition is improving as soil
moisture levels have increased from earlier rain. All surface and bore
supplies appear to be adequate. Livestock have maintained a forward
store average across most of the area except for breeders with calves at
foot that are slipping slightly in line with the season. Very little
rainfall was recorded during the month in the Townsville stock district.
However generally stock are in good condition and there are reasonable
stands of medium quality feed available. No water problems have been
reported.
West Region: North West: In Flinders shire, the pasture response from
the June rainfall has been very good but there has been a noticeable
increase in galvanised burr. The Mitchell grass is standing well with
June rains having assisted where species were already in reasonable
condition. Many properties in the very south of the shire are generally
bare and growth in these pastures is predominantly immature weed
species. Pastures in the Mt Isa district have generally hayed off
although there are some areas where spinifex is still predominant.
Pastures in Cloncurry and McKinlay shires vary from good to non-existent
where there has been a slow response from the June rainfall. There have
been some reports received of no Mitchell Grass remaining in parts of
the downs country between Cloncurry and Julia Creek. Stock condition is
generally holding well across the North West with underground and
surface water supplies available in sufficient quantities. In the
Central West in Winton and Boulia shires, stock condition score is
generally 3 due to the low stocking rates. In Blackall shire cattle
condition is holding well as new herbage and pasture growth have
responded to recent rain. The areas north of Aramac, Muttaburra and
parts of Barcaldine have received a good response to rains and the
buffel country is showing green shoots. Water reserves are stable. There
has been little rain recorded in the South West during the month. The
majority of stock are holding condition generally as a result of low
stocking rates. The northern half of Murweh and Tambo shires has
recorded some winter rain but the southern parts remain very dry.
Pasture condition is variable and reliant on rainfall and the flooded
areas. The Channel Country has some good herbage and pasture growth.
Central Region: Stock are generally in reasonable condition across the
region but drought feeding is continuing in many areas with hay being
fed where pasture is short. In the Clermont district generally
livestock condition is good. The majority of pasture has hayed off and
in many areas there are still considerable amounts of this dry feed. In
the Rockhampton district stock condition varies with some poorer cows
and lighter weaners being seen around the district and saleyards.
Pasture has responded to recent rainfall in many areas but many
properties are poorly degraded as a result of below average seasons.
Large quantities of weeds are evident in many pastures, mostly due to
the out of season rain received last month. In the Emerald district
livestock condition is generally good and stock movements have remained
steady during the month. Pastures appear to have responded well to the
combination of increased day length, warmer temperatures and rainfall
throughout August.
South-East Region: Following on from some much needed rain in all areas
of the South East, livestock condition is now being maintained and the
rain has allowed some green pick to grow and improve livestock
condition. While record breaking falls in the near coastal areas caused
damaging floods, the heavy rainfall did not extend too far inland. The
number of cattle sent to sale has decreased in line with this break in
the season. Many farms have now been able to decrease their drought
feeding of stock. Given this, stock feed prices remain expensive.
Pasture quantity remains poor in the great majority of areas. Cold
conditions and severe frosts have caused a marked loss in pasture
quality. The rain throughout the region has allowed some green pick in
pastures although this feed, while good in quality, is short on supply.
South Region: Stock condition is currently averaging between score 2 to
3 as a result of a severe winter. The extended drought and cold
conditions have limited production. Graziers continue to reduce
livestock numbers to ensure animal survival although there have been
noticeably higher numbers of younger animals than normal sent to sale.
Pasture availability is low and the quality is generally poor. The above
median rainfall required during winter to generate adequate winter
herbage and forage crop production did not occur. The August rain was
too late for herbage production although forage crops planted in June
are generally in reasonable condition.
CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE:
North Region: The grass seed cropping season has finished on the
Tablelands although legume seed production for stylos has reduced by
about one third due to frosts. Bowen farmers have had bore water
entitlements increased to 100 per cent. Above average winter rainfall
and reduced demand for irrigation water has led to full aquifers in the
Bowen delta. The cropping season for tomatoes, beans, capsicum, corn and
melons in the Bowen district continues. Wet and cold showery overcast
conditions have affected fruit quality of banana crops in the wet
tropics. Mango and lychee crops are experiencing a massive flowering at
present which may provide potential for a good crop come harvest. Frost
has affected potato crops on the Tablelands although damage has varied
greatly. Cane harvesting continues in the Herbert district although
there have been some minor delays due to the rain. In the Burdekin the
harvest is progressing slowly and the harvest on the Tablelands has
passed the half way mark.
Central Region: Some welcomed rain was received in the last week of
August after a very dry month in July. It is expected wheat yields on
the Central Highlands will be variable as there were generally two main
plantings. The earlier crops were dry planted and then received some
excellent rain in June which is providing some expectations we may see
wheat yields around 2.5t/ha up to 3t/ha. For the later planted crops
yields could be around 1.5 - 2 t/ha after the recent rain. In the
Dawson Callide region, dryland cropping conditions deteriorated during
August. The bulk of the cereal crops have moved through from jointing to
booting. Earlier planted crops are at the flowering stage, whereas later
planted crops are mid tillering.
South-East Region: Large areas of wheat, oats and barley have been
planted in the region although lack of rain has severely stressed these
crops. However, rainfall received during the month has assisted many of
these crops in the short term. The heavy rainfall near the end of August
has caused extensive crop loss to strawberry farms on the Sunshine
Coast. Preparations for spring planting season on ginger farms have
been disrupted with significant erosion of cultivated, but unplanted,
fields in the heavy runoff from the high rainfall. Severe frosts were
also reported in the Hampton area during the month. Harvesting of the
main season avocado variety Hass and of macadamia nuts continued through
August.
South Region: Limited soil moisture conditions and late winter rain
restricted winter crop planting. Widespread rain that fell during June
has resulted in widespread planting in the northern and western Downs.
The Southern Downs and Goondiwindi district had low soil moisture and
little in-crop rain. This resulted in widespread crop failure being fed
off to stock. The Maranoa area did not have any significant planting.
Many crops in southern districts have failed. The area north of the line
from Dalby to Yuleba received good June rain which encouraged planting
of chickpea, barley and wheat. The rest of the region received limited
planting opportunities and most growers decided to hold onto the
moisture for a summer crop. Yields in the southern portion of the region
are generally expected to be well below median. Water availability for
fruit and vegetable growers throughout the Granite Belt has been
variable with the northern and western areas having better storage
supplies. Prices for vegetables are high due to supply shortages.
RAINFALL (figure in brackets indicates average)
North Region: Babinda received 113mm (103) Cairns A/P 36mm (n/a),
Ingham 18mm (37), Innisfail 81mm (n/a), Townsville 4mm (14), Tully n/a
(n/a), Bowen 5mm (n/a), Charters Towers 2mm (n/a), Georgetown 0.0mm (3)
and Normanton A/P n/a (n/a) and Proserpine A/P 7mm (n/a).
West Region: Birdsville A/P n/a (14), Boulia 0.0mm (8), Windorah 0.6mm
(9), Cloncurry n/a (n/a), Mt Isa 4mm (5), Longreach 17mm (14),
Muttaburra 5mm (13), Winton 8mm (6) and Charleville 31mm (22).
Central Region: Alpha recorded 5mm (22), Clermont 13mm (21), Springsure
20mm (26), Mackay 3mm (29), Yaamba 20mm (26), Biloela A/P n/a (n/a), Mt
Larcom 32mm (36), Gladstone 32mm (32), Theodore 18mm (31), and Yeppoon
22mm (n/a).
South-East Region: Eidsvold recorded 36mm (34), Gayndah 39mm (36),
Mundubbera43mm (34), Esk 97mm (35), Kilkivan 58mm (39), Kingaroy 36mm
(n/a), Nanango 65mm (40), Proston 19mm (35), and Beaudesert 57mm (43).
On the coastal fringe Bundaberg received 55mm (38), Maryborough 206mm
(45), Nambour 382mm (57) and Tewantin 669mm (n/a).
South Region: Clifton 63mm (38), Dalby 62mm (n/a), Goondiwindi 43mm
(n/a), Inglewood 66mm (37), Oakey 69mm (30), Pittsworth 64mm (40),
Stanthorpe 72mm (48), Toowoomba AP 55mm (n/a), Warwick 59mm (n/a), Roma
73mm (n/a), Miles 74mm (n/a), St George A/P 34mm (n/a) and Taroom 48mm
(31).
WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES
North Region: Water storages are in good supply with no reports of any
shortages.
West Region: Both underground and surface water are available in
sufficient quantities.
Central Region: There are no known water issues in the Central Region.
South-East Region: While some dams and watercourses have been topped up
following recent rain, the majority of these falls did not extend inland
and as such many properties still require further rain.
South Region: Water supplies continue to be an issue. Stream flow has
been well below average and there has been no recovery in the aquifers.
Water storage levels continue to fall.
Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY
Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454
National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)
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The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries. |
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