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07 Aug 2008

OUTLOOK:

According to the Queensland Climate Change Centre of Excellence, the 30 day average of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) remained positive through December, and was plus 13.3 for the month. The SOI phase for December remained in a 'Consistently Positive' phase with the outlook for January to March showing a 50 to 70 % chance of receiving above median rainfall for much of Queensland. At the time of writing this report (8 January 2008) the 30 day average of the SOI is plus 20.3.

A monsoonal trough across northern Australia has bought much needed rain to the northern centres of Queensland. Charters Towers recorded over 100 mm in the last week of December. While storm rains were patchy, the continued positive summer outlook for Queensland may provide rain for those areas that have so far missed out.

Some regions including the coastal area from Mackay south to the Fraser Coast have a 70 to 80% chance of exceeding median rainfall. Other isolated regions in the west of the state only have a 40 to 50 % chance of exceeding their median rainfall. Given this, current analysis indicates rainfall for much Queensland is more likely to be close to or above the long term average (or middle third to upper third) rather than below or well below average.

STATE OVERVIEW:

Currently 62.4% of Queensland is drought declared under state processes. There are also 22 Individually Droughted Properties (IDPs) in a further five shires. Generally the southern two thirds of the state, with the exception of some coastal areas, remains drought declared.

LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES:

North Region: Monsoonal activity late in December produced good widespread falls of rain across the North Region with above average falls recorded in many parts. Concurrently with the rainfall livestock and pastures have improved and remain in very good condition in general. In the Mareeba Stock District the early storm rains were sufficient to promote a good pasture growth and this has consolidated with rain later in the month. The Atherton Tableland has experienced good pasture growth and livestock are generally in good condition. Good rainfall during the month has resulted in pastures responding well in the Malanda and Innisfail Stock Districts. Creeks and rivers are starting to run and there is plenty of surface water available. Cattle are in good condition. In the Charters Towers Stock District generally pasture condition has improved as a direct result from general rain in the area. Supplies of surface water and groundwater appear to be adequate. Livestock are at slightly forward store condition. Stock have responded well to early rains in the Normanton Stock District and there is a good body of grass available and some fresh shoots. In the Georgetown Stock District increased showers across the region have resulted in stock and pastures improving with the season. Water storages are generally adequate and recent rain put flows into a number of watercourses across the district. Cattle are in excellent to fair condition in the Bowen Stock District and pasture now ranges from medium to short growth and very green and growing. Some encouraging falls of rain were received later in the month in the Townsville Stock District which has greened up the area. Reasonable feed is available in most areas and there have been no water problems reported. Stock are in good condition.

West Region: Pasture conditions vary significantly across north west Queensland. Generally pasture is normal for this time of the year however the normal onset of the wet season has not occurred and pastures are on the decline. Mitchell grass pastures around Richmond remain relatively abundant following good winter rainfall. The southern portions of the north west are not in good pasture health following light wet seasons over the last two years. Producers are monitoring the monsoonal trough in the Gulf and waiting for it to bring widespread rain across north west Queensland as part of a normal summer rainfall influence. Rainfall in the Central West has been from a series of storms earlier in the month and some general rain late in December. Cattle are generally holding or improving in condition as a result of some good pasture response in many areas. In particular the buffel grass has responded well in the Blackall, Barcaldine, Tambo and Aramac areas. The South West has experienced some very good but patchy rainfall with flooding being reported in many of the river systems. Stocking rates are generally low and the majority of stock are holding condition.

Central Region: Most areas of the central Queensland have received rain although falls have been quite patchy. Good rainfall was recorded across the majority of Belyando, Peak Downs and Jericho shires with falls of up to 200mm in the southern portion of Jericho shire. Stock are generally in excellent condition in these shires with most having had access to the fresh growth of pasture. The pasture quantity and quality is excellent with some recovery evident in the Downs country to the northeast of Clermont. On property water storages are full to near full across the majority of these shires. In the Rockhampton Stock District reasonable rainfall was recorded during the month which has produced a good grass response and has replenished surface water supplies. Condition of stock is generally good and improving. However there are some lighter cows, mainly due to pregnancy and lactation status with many calves on the ground. There are no reported water issues with some creeks running following storm rain and the Fitzroy River in minor flood. The Calliope and Banana shires have recorded patchy rainfall with moderate to heavy falls recorded in the Calliope/Boyne Valley, Theodore and Monto. Stock are holding their condition reasonably well. Some producers are continuing to feed cattle as there is still minimal cover in many areas. There is evidence of low water supplies in some areas in these shires.

South-East Region: Most areas across south-east Queensland received near or above average rainfall throughout December. Mild summer conditions continue to be beneficial in slowing down the drying out of soil and pastures. Pasture growth has increased but quality and quantity remains low in some areas. Livestock condition has improved in most areas. Sale cattle numbers have reduced due to improved seasonal conditions. Current rainfall trend is enabling producers to retain stock numbers reducing movements to feedlots. There is little or no drought feeding currently occurring.

South Region: Stock condition is improving due to an increase in pasture production with fat scores generally ranging from 2 to 4. Graziers have destocked over the extended drought period and with the low stocking rates and improved pasture there is a reduced need to further destock. Supplementary feeding needs have dropped slightly as pasture production has improved. Summer grasses responded well to recent rain especially the buffel grass, however, native species particularly in western areas are taking longer to grow as they had to start production from seed. There has been a noticeable recovery of pastures in the eastern parts of the region.

CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE:

North Region: Overall conditions have been ideal and it has been a very good start to the cropping season. Cropping on the Atherton Tablelands is looking good with emerging crops of maize and peanuts. Perennial grass seed crops have been cut and fertilized and are experiencing excellent growing conditions. Further grass crops will be started in January. Legume seed crops have been planted. In the Bowen district the vegetable cropping season has closed and cover crops are in. A large mango crop has been harvested but prices are low due to oversupply. In all districts the 2008 crop is growing well with plenty of soil moisture available. Wet conditions continue to hamper the sugarcane crush in the Burdekin district with two of the four mills still crushing at the end of December.

Central Region: The spring sorghum plantings have predominantly resulted in a reasonable crop, with much being on irrigation. However, growers with late plantings have found the rain to be very patchy with a considerable number still waiting for an opportunity to plant summer crops. Growers around Theodore, Moura and Baralaba received some very useful rain during the month with mild temperatures across much of the Dawson/Callide Valley benefitting the spring and irrigated crops.

South-East Region: Generally, early plantings of maize, sorghum and peanuts are looking good but are in need of follow up rain. There has also been some late plantings of peanuts reported. The harvest season for Kwai May Pink lychees (the main variety grown in south-east Queensland) normally begins just after Christmas New Year period. The mature crop is vulnerable to the wind and wet weather, and the continuing wet weather could make things difficult for harvesting.

South Region: There has been extensive sorghum planting over the south region. At the end of December, current soil water conditions and the seasonal rainfall outlook indicate a good chance of average to above yields. However a wet finish to the crop has a potential to create pest and disease problems. There has been planting of sunflower and corn crops on the Darling Downs, which are doing well under the present conditions. Water storages continue to improve throughout the Granite Belt. This has benefited the prospects for this summers fruit and vegetable growers.

RAINFALL (figure in brackets indicates average)

North Region: Babinda received n/a (331) Cairns A/P 321mm (190), Ingham 164mm (217), Innisfail 506mm (n/a), Townsville 138mm (148), Tully n/a (n/a), Bowen 34mm (n/a), Charters Towers 125mm (n/a), Georgetown 141mm (n/a) and Normanton A/P n/a (n/a) and Proserpine A/P 157mm (n/a). West Region: Birdsville A/P n/a (17), Boulia 28mm (28), Windorah 75mm (27), Cloncurry n/a (n/a), Mt Isa 84mm (62), Longreach 165mm (51), Muttaburra 65mm (59), Winton 85mm (51) and Charleville 90mm (53).

Central Region: Alpha recorded 112mm (85), Clermont 32mm (101), Springsure 137mm (107), Mackay 171mm (197), Yaamba 48mm (131), Biloela A/P n/a (n/a), Mt Larcom 215mm (150), Gladstone 292mm (140), Theodore 209mm (102), and Yeppoon 84mm (n/a).

South-East Region: Eidsvold recorded 44mm (86), Gayndah 68mm (112), Mundubbera 29mm (100), Esk 121mm (111), Kilkivan n/a (124), Kingaroy 67mm (n/a), Nanango 104mm (108), Proston 153mm (108), and Beaudesert n/a (n/a). On the coastal fringe Bundaberg received 44mm (138), Maryborough 100mm (134), Nambour 63mm (n/a) and Tewantin n/a (n/a).

South Region: Clifton 53mm (109), Dalby 109mm (n/a), Goondiwindi 90mm (n/a), Inglewood 62mm (86), Oakey 54mm (93), Pittsworth 42mm (104), Stanthorpe 140mm (95), Toowoomba AP 63mm (n/a), Warwick 76mm (n/a), Roma 81mm (n/a), Miles 53mm (n/a), St George A/P 215mm (n/a) and Taroom 184mm (104).

WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES

North Region: Water storages are adequate and the recent rain has caused rivers and creeks to flow.

West Region: Underground and surface water supplies are generally good across the west region.

Central Region: While water supplies appear adequate across the majority of the region, because of the patchy nature of the rainfall some areas are still experiencing water issues.

South-East Region: Water supplies have been replenished across many areas of the South-East.

South Region: Water storages have continued to rise. There has been some good runoff due to recent rainfall events.

Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY

Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454

National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)

The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries.