SITUATION AS AT 28 FEBRUARY 2007
OUTLOOK:
Despite the rise in the monthly Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) values
from minus 8.9 for January to minus 2.8 for February, the SOI is still
in a "Consistently Negative" phase. An analysis of this SOI phase and
historical rainfall records indicates there is a 30 to 50% chance of
getting median rainfall throughout the northern half of Queensland for
March through to the end of May. Throughout the southern half of the
state there is a 40 to 60% chance and in a few locations up to a 70%
chance of getting median rainfall. According to the Department of
Primary Industries and Fisheries climate staff, at this time of year
consistently negative values are not a major concern. However if the SOI
does not return to consistently positive values during autumn it would
be a warning sign for a likely dry winter/spring.
The 2006/07 summer cropping season currently indicates that there is a
low chance of getting the long term average sorghum yield on a shire
basis. Throughout Southern Queensland sorghum yields are expected to be
below average and in Central Queensland sorghum yield expectations are
similar to or slightly above that of the long-term average. Rainfall at
this stage would be unlikely to improve the crop outlook. However
widespread rainfall would help improve soil moisture levels for the
coming winter cropping season.
STATE OVERVIEW:
The north region has seen a good start to the year with an active
monsoonal trough delivering large amounts of rain across the region. The
majority of all other districts across Queensland have recorded average
to below average patchy rainfall during February. While there have been
some scattered showers from isolated storm activity, this has generally
failed to produce any significant runoff which has been beneficial to
producers. Overall livestock appear to be holding well considering the
current dry conditions although in some areas where pastures are poor
livestock are starting to slip. Most areas in southern Queensland are
showing a much below average crop yield expectation while most areas in
Central Queensland show crop yield expectations of above the long term
average.
Following recommendations from the Local Drought Committee (LDC), the
Minister for Primary Industries and Fisheries drought declared the
western portion of Waggamba Shire as at 1 February 2007. As at 28
February 2007 there are 73 shires and 3 part shires drought declared
under State processes, which is equivalent to 63.3% of the land area of
the State. There are also 82 Individually Droughted Properties (IDPs) in
a further 9 shires.
REGIONAL SUMMARIES:
North Region: The active monsoonal trough which delivered large amounts
of rain across the region was followed by Tropical Cyclone Nelson in
the Gulf of Carpentaria which moved across the peninsula into the Coral
Sea. The combined effects of these events led to widespread flooding
with rainfall totals generally well above average and this has enabled
pastures to regenerate. Charters Towers received four times the long
term February average rainfall.
West Region: Scattered storm rainfall was recorded across the west
during the month. Pastures have responded well from earlier rain but
are now drying off in some areas following hot dry winds and lack of
follow up rain. Livestock are generally in good condition across the
region as stocking rates generally remain well below normal carrying
capacity. Stock are now coming back into the Channel Country where
pasture has responded very well following earlier significant rainfall.
Central Region: The northern part of the region has generally received
very useful rain with all the major storages at least half full.
Rainfall has been patchier in the southern parts of the region with some
parts of the Calliope Shire only receiving very light falls with grass
drying out quickly. The Dawson Callide has received good grass rain
although further runoff rain is required to fill storages. The Central
Highlands have fared well with a significant area of crops being
planted. Stock numbers have lifted at Gracemere sales with prices rising
for all classes. Early weaning is happening in many areas where rainfall
has been lighter, to encourage higher conception rates for the coming
year.
South-East Region: There has been little change since the last report
with rainfall received during the month again variable although
generally below average. Isolated areas have recorded excellent rainfall
whilst other districts have missed out totally. The majority of all
falls have been storm rain with no general rainfall received. Dam levels
remain low on many farms. Water continues to be a problem with some
feedlots and piggeries resorting to water carting. Hot dry conditions
have not been favourable for crop growth and many corn, peanut and
sorghum crops are expected to yield poorly. Livestock condition varies
widely throughout the region although the majority of all animals are
now holding condition.
South Region: Rainfall received across the district has generally ranged
between 20 to 50mm. Most pastures are low in quantity and quality with
prospects for grain yields being poor given the current dry conditions.
Cotton production is limited due to the unavailability of irrigation
water. General soaking rain is required across the region as the pasture
growing season is fast coming to a close. There is some concern amongst
producers that there will be an insufficient quantity of pasture to
carry stock through winter. Dry conditions are expected to significantly
reduce summer crop yield potential. Stock are generally holding
condition with a fat score 2 to 3.
LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES:
North Region: As a direct result from Cyclone Nelson excellent rainfall
was received across the region and has allowed for regeneration of
pastures and rejuvenated surface and bore water supplies. The areas of
Dalrymple and Bowen Shires have benefited from the falls. The Mareeba
stock district experienced flooding in the Lower Palmer and Mitchell
rivers. Stock in the Normanton district are in good condition and have
responded well to the available green feed. There are no reported water
problems. Cattle across the Georgetown district are generally in good
condition with most stock at least condition score 4. While there is a
good body of green grass across the majority of the district it is
beginning to dry off in some places. Most properties generally have good
water reserves although there are still a few properties where dam
levels have not been fully replenished. Most of the rivers are running
but are very low for this time of year. Cattle are generally in good
condition across the Malanda district with good pasture growth and a
good body of feed visible over the Tablelands. Surface water is readily
available and Tinaroo Dam is near full. Similar conditions can also
generally be found in the Innisfail, Charters Towers and Townsville
stock districts.
West Region: There have been some scattered storms over the north west
this month. Overall stock generally appear to be in fair to good
condition, however in the Flinders Shire wet cows are starting to slip.
Most of the forest country in Flinders shire appears in very good
condition although south of the Flinders River, the Mitchell downs
annuals are deteriorating due to the hot dry winds currently being
experienced. In Richmond shire, the rains which were received in the
preceding three months have benefited the pasture growth and quality of
available paddocks, however, as insufficient follow-up has been received
in February, Mitchell and Flinders grasses are now drying off. Water
supplies appear to be adequate in the short term. There has been minimal
rainfall in the Central West during February, with one heavy fall
recorded over Blackall. Livestock in the majority of shires are
currently in good condition with body condition rapidly improving for
those with fresh feed. There are fresh green shoots of perennial grasses
and some herbage growth developing in the Boulia shire and further
growth is expected in the Channel Country in response to recent rains.
Across the Blackall stock district the conditions vary with the lighter
soils responding well while the black soil area requires further rain to
generate good pasture growth. There has been a noticeable increase in
the amount of weeds and roly poly but some reasonable stands of Mitchell
grass have been reported. There are no reported water issues in the
Central West. While scattered storms have been received across the South
West most places have generally received little to no rain. Stock
condition is generally holding on most properties as stocking rates are
well below normal carrying capacity. Those livestock on properties which
have experienced herbage growth from the rains in January are generally
in very good condition. Where rainfall was received in early January a
good stand of herbage and pasture species is still available, however,
with the increased temperatures this is likely to dry off rapidly.
Pasture has responded well in the flooded channel country areas and
producers in these areas are starting to return stock. Surface water
supplies have been replenished.
Central Region: The central region has seen good pasture response where
rainfall has been high. Many producers in the more marginal areas have
started early weaning to build up breeder body condition and enhance
conception rates. Overall livestock condition is generally good.
Rainfall events have been recorded across most of Banana, Calliope and
Miriam Vale Shires. While the falls have been patchy they have provided
some temporary relief with most pastures generally responding well.
Stock condition in general has improved in line with the pasture
response. The Clermont district has received good falls for the start
of the year. Cattle and pastures are generally in very good to good
condition. Most areas around Emerald shire have received average to
good falls of rain. The country has responded well and falls received in
February have complimented rain received in January. Some graziers have
reported that there has been good establishment of buffel grass in areas
that previously had none. Mackay district is enjoying a good wet season
with total rainfall exceeding 1000mm in coastal areas and 300mm in the
hinterland. Pastures are generally very good although there is some weed
growth. Coastal cattle have not performed as expected due to the
extended wet period with cold, boggy conditions and high moisture
content pasture.
South-East Region: Livestock condition continues to vary widely
throughout the region. Given this most stock are now maintaining
condition. There continues to be some very dry pockets in the Mundubbera
and Monto areas that have received very little relief which is
contributing to poor stock condition. In areas with good rainfall there
is quality pasture but the feed is very short. There are very few places
where large quantities of feed are still available. The green feed is
providing most stock with adequate short term nutrition although some of
the drier areas still have no pasture. There are movements of stock to
sale with reports of early December prices still being achieved. Cattle
market supplies will now depend totally on how rain falls in the coming
season. Widespread rain would mean a severe tightening in the
availability of cattle for sale. Supplementation and drought feeding of
stock has generally slowed in many areas where rain has fallen. Water
continues to be an issue in the region.
South Region: Overall stock are generally holding in condition between a
fat score 2 to 3. The absence of any useful rainfall in the south has
hindered pasture and forage crop growth which has in turn restricted
stock production. Without an improvement in the current pasture
conditions there is an expectation that stock condition will fall away.
Graziers have continued to reduce their herd and flock numbers as part
of their management strategy to ensure survival/production rates. There
have been large numbers of livestock turned off over the current drought
period. Widespread supplementary feeding is continuing within the region
even though this practice has become very expensive for many businesses
as the bulk of the regions pastures are low in quantity and quality.
There was some response to the rain that fell this month, however, the
heat and the lack of follow up rain limited production for many areas.
Water carting operations for livestock have increased. The availability
of on-farm stock water supplies will generally determine the short to
medium term carrying capabilities for most properties.
CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE:
North Region: On the Tablelands early planted seed crops of Rhodes grass
were weathered due to monsoonal rain. While these crops have now been
harvested seed quality is generally low. The majority of the Rhodes
grass crops which were prepared after the rain appear to be growing well
and should be harvested in early to mid May. Legume seed crops are
growing well as are peanut and maize crops. In the Mt Garnet and
Lakeland areas the delayed start to the wet season has resulted in
reduced plantings of sorghum. There has also been an estimated 10-15%
reduction in maize crop plantings on the Tablelands due to unfavorable
weather conditions. In the wet tropics the conditions have not been
advantageous for banana and paw paw crops due to the cumulative affects
of excessive rain and wind. Harvesting of the avocado crop is underway
on the Tablelands. Flooding during the beginning of the year has
resulted in some cane crop damage but an improvement in weather
conditions have seen these cane crops respond well. In the Burdekin
growing conditions have been ideal throughout the month with
intermittent rain and sunshine. Growers have commenced irrigation again
and some planting has been occurring. In the Herbert district some plant
cane was lost due to boiling effect, which occurs when sunlight heats
the water submerging the cane. This has mainly been restricted to the
smaller plant cane which has less established root systems. This
occurrence was not widespread and growing conditions since then have
been ideal.
Central Region: Rainfall has been patchy through the Callide Dawson
although the arrival of storm rains has provided some useful follow up
for those producers fortunate enough to be under them. While there have
been a few severe storms reports of hail damage have been minimal.
Generally the rain has been beneficial to crops already planted although
water logging is becoming an issue in some paddocks. Rainfall received
in January has enabled further planting of sorghum and mungbeans
although the total area is still below normal. The planting window for
summer crops has now closed. Most fallow paddocks should now have
sufficient stored moisture to see winter crop planting begin in April.
In the Central Highlands intense storm activity during the middle of
February 2007 in the Fernlees district has caused considerable soil
erosion to both farming and grazing country. Many cotton growers in the
Emerald Irrigation Area have decided to plant sorghum instead of cotton
as no irrigation water was available.
South-East Region: Cropping in the south east has been severely affected
by the poor season. There are many areas that did not plant a crop and
the ideal window for many summer crops has now closed. Yield prospects
are low for most crops unless they received storm rainfall. Some crops
in the North Burnett have been planted but generally there is only a
small area that is likely to be productive. Many crops have already been
harvested for stock feed. Good fruit set for custard apple is reported
across the region. It is hoped that this will reduce vegetative vigour
of the trees and result in more nutrients being diverted to fruit
development and improving fruit quality in this year's crop. Lychee
harvesting was completed during February and yields have generally been
good. Persimmon harvesting has begun and yields are expected to be
reasonable for most growers. Strawberry growers are continuing with
preparations for the beginning of the planting season in mid March.
Overall there have been no reports of any storm damage occurring to the
cropping or horticulture industries during February.
South Region: Weather conditions experienced across the Darling Downs
over summer resulted in variable crop production. While the majority of
crop production varies from paddock to paddock crops planted around
Dalby are generally better than most. Early planted crops are showing
the most promise and harvesting has commenced although with variable
results. The majority of the dryland cotton failed and has now been
ploughed-in. It is estimated that less than half of available irrigated
area was planted due to low storages. Limited irrigation supplies across
the Border Rivers district have resulted in below average planting of
cotton. Grain sorghum plantings were also low. In the Maranoa/Balonne
and Western Downs there was also very little grain sorghum planted.
There was 1% of cotton planted in the Dirranbandi and 20% in the St.
George irrigation areas. Limited irrigation water also hindered the
cotton crop to be carried through the growing season. Similar growing
conditions were also experienced in the Western Downs. In the Granite
Belt district, fruit and vegetable growers south of Stanthorpe have
generally exhausted dam storages causing some vegetable growers to stop
planting. The north side of Stanthorpe as well as some areas to west
appear to be a little better with reports of adequate water storages for
the coming season.
RAINFALL (figure in brackets indicates average)
North Region: Babinda received 1582mm (738) Cairns A/P 713mm (422),
Ingham 902mm (410), Innisfail 1191mm (n/a), Townsville 544mm (232),
Tully 1410mm (678), Bowen 476mm (n/a), Charters Towers 404mm (n/a),
Georgetown 127mm (208) and Normanton A/P 231mm (n/a) and Proserpine A/P
561mm (n/a).
West Region: Birdsville A/P n/a (21), Boulia 0.0mm (41), Windorah 9mm
(45), Cloncurry 34mm (97), Mt Isa 13mm (86), Longreach 31mm (69),
Muttaburra 73mm (71), Winton 52mm (80) and Charleville 17mm (55).
Central Region: Alpha recorded 65mm (81), Clermont 87mm (104),
Springsure 64mm (113), Mackay 581mm (302), Yaamba 186mm (n/a), Biloela
A/P 66mm (83), Mt Larcom 64mm (129), Gladstone 107mm (140), Theodore
65mm (90), and Yeppoon 186mm (n/a).
South-East Region: Eidsvold recorded 72mm (81), Gayndah 85mm (n/a),
Mundubbera 105mm (74), Esk 29mm (100), Kilkivan 56mm (94), Kingaroy 40mm
(n/a), Nanango 45mm (86), Proston 86mm (77), and Beaudesert 25mm (109).
On the coastal fringe Bundaberg received 97mm (148), Maryborough 152mm
(163), Nambour 301mm (224) and Tewantin 234mm (n/a).
South Region: Clifton 77mm (87), Dalby 14mm (n/a), Goondiwindi 29mm
(n/a), Inglewood 15mm (68), Oakey 17mm (84), Pittsworth 117mm (76),
Stanthorpe 64mm (81), Toowoomba AP 57mm (n/a), Warwick 17mm (n/a), Roma
60mm (n/a), Miles 82mm (n/a), St George A/P 26mm (n/a) and Taroom 14mm
(76).
WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES
North Region: Water storages are in good supply for this time of the
year with flooding in many rivers and creeks during the month. The
major water storages of Tinaroo and Burdekin Dams are at 100% and 88%
respectively.
West Region: Generally there does not appear to be any water supply
issues with the majority of all storages having been replenished.
Central Region: While the majority of all shires appear to have adequate
water in the short term there are still pockets in the south where water
is a concern. Overall more rain is generally required.
South-East Region: Water supplies in most areas are low. Stream flows
have been minimal causing an increase on declining groundwater supplies
where available. Good rains are needed to replenish all water storages.
South Region: Water is still an issue with the majority of all storages
continuing to fall. Streamflow has been well below average while
aquifers have not had any recovery.
Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY
Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454
National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)
 |
The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries. |
| 
