SITUATION AS AT 31 JANUARY 2007
OUTLOOK:
The monthly value of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) for December
was minus 5.3 and for January was minus 8.8. The SOI is therefore in a
"Consistently Near Zero" phase. Based on a "Consistently Near Zero" SOI
phase and historical rainfall records, there is a 40 to 50% chance of
getting median rainfall for January through to the end of March across
most of Queensland. While the outlook is not as positive as many would
like, there has been a marginal improvement in the seasonal outlook and
as Queensland is in its summer rainfall season there is a reasonable
chance of getting some useful relief rain.
The drier than average conditions have continued through summer with
below average rainfall generally recorded for almost the entire sorghum
cropping region during January. The only exception was for some parts of
the Central Highlands, Maranoa and Far South West which received average
rainfall during January. The current area planted to sorghum is below
normal in most areas of the Queensland cropping region. However,
rainfall during February may induce further plantings in parts of
Central Queensland where summer crops can still be planted this late in
the season.
STATE OVERVIEW:
Significant rainfall was recorded in the far south west and northern
coastal areas towards the end of the month. There was patchy storm rain
across parts of the rest of the State. Overall livestock appear in
reasonable condition in most areas and this should improve when pastures
respond to rainfall received. In Central Queensland the spring crops
harvest has resulted in generally good yields and rainfall this month
should improve yield potential for summer crops already planted.
Following recommendations from the Local Drought Committee (LDC), the
Acting Minister for Primary Industries and Fisheries drought declared
Calliope Shire as at 10 January 2007. As at 31 January 2007 there are 72
shires and 4 part shires drought declared under State processes, which
is equivalent to 62.9% of the land area of the State. There are also 110
Individually Droughted Properties (IDPs) in a further 13 shires.
REGIONAL SUMMARIES:
North Region: January has seen average to below average falls with most
of this rain falling in the last few days of the month. Livestock appear
in reasonable condition and the start of the wet season should ensure
continued pasture growth. After a very late finish to the northern cane
harvest in 2006 the 2007 crop appears to be growing well. The mango
harvest continues on the Tablelands with good yields and quality being
reported. An active monsoon trough produced torrential rainfall and
flooding along the north Queensland coast between Cairns and Mackay.
Cyclone Nelson also brought significant rainfall to the region.
West Region: Seasonal conditions are off to a great start following
significant widespread rainfall and major flooding in the Channel
Country. Some producers are restocking with sheep and cattle, however
most are allowing the country to recover and are awaiting further rain
before fully restocking. Rainfall across the remainder of the region has
been patchy and pastures are responding accordingly.
Central Region: Good rainfall was recorded to the north of St Lawrence
with lighter falls reported in other areas. The majority of the central
region appears patchy due to the nature of the rainfall. Pastures have
been low in both quality and quantity although where the rain has fallen
pastures generally appear to have responded. Stock condition ranges from
poor to good. Where there is some green pick stock generally appear to
be in better than average condition. Stocking rates, feeding regimes and
rainfall received have also determined current condition. Rainfall
received has prompted planting of mungbeans and forage sorghum while
spring crops already planted have been harvested with good yields
generally received.
South-East Region: Rainfall during the month has again been variable
with some isolated areas that recorded good rainfall while other
districts missed out. The majority of this rain has resulted from
storms. Dam levels remain low on many properties and water continues to
be a problem. Hot dry conditions have not been favourable for crop
growth and many crops are expected to yield poorly. Overall stock appear
to be holding condition.
South Region: The western areas of the region have generally received
the better falls with reports between 50 to 100mm recorded. The
remainder of the region received 25-50mm. The majority of the region
continues to experience pastures that are low in quantity and quality.
Grain production has been reduced as climatic conditions fail to
improve. Stock condition is expected to fall unless there is significant
rain over the coming months. The dry conditions have substantially
reduced summer crop yield potential and good soaking rain is required to
see any improvements.
LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES:
North Region: Some early storms and mild daily temperatures across the
North Region have enabled conditions to remain stable for the month.
Throughout the northern stocking districts livestock are responding to
the green feed and stock condition is generally as good as could be
expected for this time in the season. With the start of the wet and some
rain the pastures have responded well with a good body of growth.
Pasture condition deteriorated slightly throughout the Charters Towers
district as daily temperatures increased early in the month although
late storms have improved the general situation. Livestock maintained
reasonable condition for this time of year although breeder animals with
calves at foot are requiring supplementation to maintain body condition.
Surface water is readily available with no foreseeable problems. Large
and varied amounts of rainfall were received over the Bowen stock
district this month, ranging from 75-350mm. The coastal areas of the
district received the larger falls, although good rains were received
over the whole district. Pastures are generally very green and
recovering quickly.
West Region: In the north west there has been good rainfall, however,
conditions are still very patchy with some properties receiving little
rain for the month. The majority of the stock are generally in store
condition. Pastures vary in line with where the rain fell. Rain in the
Richmond shire has assisted with the growth and quality of available
pastures although supplementation feeding is still required in many
areas. To the south of Richmond, pasture has been slow to respond to
rain. In the Flinders shire, Mitchell and Flinders grasses have shot up
with the rain, however, roly poly and sesbania pea have also returned.
Water supplies generally appear adequate in most rivers and creeks.
Local flooding has occurred in some of the Central West with good
rainfall being reported in the majority of the region. However, rainfall
has still been very patchy with some places receiving very little
rainfall. Stock in the Central West are generally in good condition.
Areas in the Longreach stock district that received rain have seen some
perennial pasture response as well as annuals although there is no bulk
in the new growth yet. In Boulia and Winton shires, there are fresh
green shoots in the perennial grasses as well as some herbage growth.
The southern parts of Winton shire however have short green leaf which
is not high enough for cattle to access. In the Blackall district
pasture condition ranges from very good to well below average. The light
soils have responded well with the black soil generally needing some
more moisture. Water supplies appear adequate. There has been
significant rainfall in the majority of the South West. Stock condition
remains good aided by lower stocking numbers. Herbage and pasture is
responding well in the flooded areas and softer country. In the hard
mulga country pasture response has been nil. Mitchell grass tussocks are
beginning to respond but are still very patchy around the Wyandra area.
Pigweed and Button grass are prominent species in the Quilpie,
Diamantina, Barcoo and Bulloo shires. Surface water supplies have been
replenished with reports of flooding in the Paroo, Bulloo and Diamantina
Rivers and Coopers Creek.
Central Region: Currently there is variation in pastures across the
region due to the rainfall pattern. The coastal area around Mackay has
received very useful falls whilst inland generally remains dry. The
coastal strip from St Lawrence to Gladstone is very dry while the
Duaringa shire and other shires to the west have reasonable pasture
although patchy. Water is a problem in some districts. Breeders in dry
areas are generally losing condition. In those areas that responded well
to rain stock are in very good condition. Drought feeding is continuing
in areas that have not received sufficient rain to prompt good grass
growth.
South-East Region: Livestock condition varies widely throughout the
region, however most stock are generally maintaining condition. There
are still some very dry pockets particularly in the Mundubbera and Monto
areas where producers have received very little relief and some stock
are in poor condition. Supplementation and drought feeding of stock has
slowed in areas where rain has fallen. Given this, water continues to be
an issue. In areas where good rainfall fell there is quality pasture but
the feed is very short. There are very few places where a large quantity
of feed is available. The green feed is providing most stock with
adequate short term nutrition. Some of the drier areas still have no
pasture.
South Region: Dry cattle body condition ranges between fat score 2 to 3.
Climatic conditions continue to hinder pasture and forage crop
production which in turn has generally restricted stock production.
Graziers continue to lighten herd and flock numbers to ensure
survival/production. Large numbers of livestock have been destocked over
the drought period. There is widespread drought supplementary feeding
being carried out within the region. There has been some pasture
response to recent rain events, however, the heat and the lack of follow
on rain limited production for many areas. Water carting operations have
increased. The available on-farm stock water supplies will determine
short to medium term carrying capabilities of properties.
CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE:
North Region: On the Tablelands there has been a good start to the seed
growing season. Grass crops have been cut back in preparation and
legumes crops have been planted. In the Wet Tropics sunshine and warm
weather have generally provided ideal growing conditions for bananas.
Cyclone affected farms are generally at pre cyclone production levels.
Paw Paw growers are planting and the lychee crop is being harvested.
Preparation is underway to pick the avocado crop on the Tablelands.
Mango picking has commenced across the region and fruit quality appears
good. At the end of January the northern cane crop was growing well
although heavy rains across the region have caused major flooding in
many of the cane growing areas. In the Burdekin, good cane growing
conditions were experienced throughout the month with intermittent rain
and sunshine. Intermittent storms and sunshine also provided ideal
growing conditions for the Herbert district crop. Conditions have
generally been beneficial for late season harvested cane allowing
ratoons to establish quickly.
Central Region: The rainfall received in the Dawson Callide has been
very useful on the small areas of mungbeans and sorghum already planted
and has improved yield potentials considerably. This has prompted
further planting activity of mostly mungbeans and some forage sorghum.
The small areas of spring crops already planted have been harvested with
good yields generally received. The summer planted crops are also
expected to yield well at this stage. On the Central Highlands isolated
patchy storms in December resulted in a limited number of growers around
the Emerald and Gindie districts having sufficient rainfall to plant.
Good rain was received in the Northern Highlands although as minimal
rain had been recorded previously almost all paddocks are dry so most
growers will generally plant less than their full area to sorghum.
South-East Region: Overall cropping has been severely affected by the
current poor season. Yield prospects are generally low for most crops
unless they have received storm rainfall. Crops have been planted in the
North Burnett district although overall there is only a small area that
may produce a good crop. Some crops have already been harvested for
stock feed. Harvesting of the Kwai May Pink lychee variety was completed
in January. Good yields have been reported. Persimmon premature fruit
drop has occurred on the early season Jiro variety and yields are
expected to be average. The main season variety Fuyu is reported to have
good fruit set and a good year is predicted.
South Region: While there was insufficient rain to plant in the western
areas of the region, early planted crops in the Eastern Downs are being
harvested. On the Darling Downs, contrasting climate conditions over
summer have seen frost, hail and heat. Some of the better crops appear
to be around Dalby, however crop production varies from paddock to
paddock. Grain sorghum plantings in the Border Rivers district have
generally been low. This is also a trend in the Maranoa/Balonne district
where the subsoil moisture is low and very little rain has been
received. Only 1% of cotton was planted in the Dirranbandi irrigation
area and 20% in St. George. Throughout the Granite Belt, rainfall has
been patchy with some isolated areas receiving above average storm rain.
In general, the majority of the district has received below average
rainfall. Apple harvesting has commenced although the hot weather is
causing some quality problems. Vegetable harvest is in full production.
RAINFALL (figure in brackets indicates average)
North Region: Babinda received 283mm (639) Cairns A/P 185mm (397),
Malanda n/a (n/a), Ingham 381mm (398), Innisfail 360mm (n/a), Townsville
271mm (244), Tully n/a (n/a), Bowen 267mm (n/a), Charters Towers 115mm
(n/a), Georgetown 213mm (227) and Normanton A/P 155mm (n/a) and
Proserpine A/P 294mm (n/a).
West Region: Birdsville A/P n/a (43), Boulia 174mm (56), Windorah 137mm
(40), Cloncurry 265mm (n/a), Mt Isa 141mm (96), Longreach 187mm (67),
Muttaburra 55mm (91), Winton 213mm (78) and Charleville 94mm (70).
Central Region: Alpha recorded 109 (102), Clermont 166mm (102),
Springsure 105mm (101), Mackay 261mm (268), Yaamba 25mm (120), Biloela
A/P 64mm (92), Mt Larcom 67mm (138), Gladstone 13mm (150), Theodore
110mm (100), and Yeppoon 17mm (n/a).
South-East Region: Eidsvold recorded 76mm (101), Gayndah 22mm (117),
Mundubbera 45mm (105), Esk 32mm (132), Kilkivan 73mm (142), Kingaroy
28mm (n/a), Nanango 65mm (110), Proston 96mm (95), and Beaudesert 95mm
(123). On the coastal fringe Bundaberg received 21mm (202), Maryborough
11mm (164), Nambour 89mm (276) and Tewantin 41mm (n/a).
South Region: Clifton 35mm (94), Dalby 35mm (n/a), Goondiwindi 27mm
(n/a), Inglewood n/a (82), Oakey 14mm (83), Pittsworth 2mm (85),
Stanthorpe 28mm (105), Toowoomba AP 26mm (n/a), Warwick 29mm (n/a), Roma
51mm (n/a), Miles 37mm (n/a), St George A/P 76mm (n/a) and Taroom 53mm
(94).
WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES
North Region: Water storages are in reasonable supply for this time of
the year with many of the major creeks and streams having flows during
the month.
West Region: Water supplies generally appear adequate.
Central Region: Water supplies appear adequate across the region with
the exception around Biloela where water carting is occurring.
South-East Region: Water is a problem on many farms as storages fall
away and bores run low. There are reports of water cartage taking place.
South Region: Stream flow was generally well below average across most
catchment areas throughout the region. There has been no recovery of
aquifers and groundwater levels in many areas have receded.
Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY
Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454
National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)
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The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries. |
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