SITUATION AS AT 31 JULY 2007
OUTLOOK:
According to the Queensland Climate Change Centre of Excellence, based on
the shift in monthly value of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) from
June (plus 5.4) to July (minus 4.8), the chance of getting median rainfall
during August to October is less than 40% for most of Queensland and drops
to less than 20% for the central west. However, it is worth noting that we
are in our 'dry season' and that August and September have the lowest
median monthly rainfall totals for most locations in Queensland. Therefore
significant or 'drought breaking' rain is not usual during this period.
The 30day average of the SOI as at 8 August is minus 0.96. While negative
SOI values are not what we want, there should be little impact as long as
the SOI trends upwards before the end of the winter. However rainfall
probabilities for our important summer rainfall season will remain low if
the SOI remains in negative values.
At the end of July, current crop conditions and seasonal rainfall outlook
indicate that the chance of above median wheat yield for the 2007 wheat
crop remains below average for most of Queensland. There is however some
variation within the state's cropping regions. Almost the entire southern
cropping region is showing likely yield outcomes below the expected median
wheat yield. Conversely, the yield outcome in most parts of Central
Queensland is close to the long-term median yield expectation. The likely
range of yield outcomes at state level narrowed down considerably towards a
lower level than the previous month.
STATE OVERVIEW:
Very little rainfall was recorded across the State in July. The majority
of regions have recorded some frosts during July which have impacted on
existing pasture supplies. This has caused livestock to lose condition and
generally prompted many producers to send large numbers off to sale. In
those areas where rain was received and soil moisture is good producers are
now waiting for an increase in day time temperatures to promote further
pasture growth. In the cropping areas where June rain was received, some
late crops have been planted although follow up rain is required to
maintain production.
There are currently 85 shires and 2 part shires drought declared under
State processes, which is equivalent to 62.5% of the land area of the
State. There are also 13 Individually Droughted Properties (IDPs) in a
further four shires.
LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES:
North Region: Generally throughout the Mareeba stock district conditions
remain above average for both pasture and stock. There have been increased
numbers of cattle going through the Mareeba Saleyard especially the week
after major frosting in the Ravenshoe/Kaban area. Nearly all pasture on the
Tablelands has been severely affected by frost with around 18 frosts
recorded to date. Some producers have opted to mulch their paddocks in an
attempt to accelerate the regrowth of the grass although most beef
producers have generally been supplementing cattle with hay and molasses.
Dairy farmers have been supplementing with winter grasses such as rye
grass. Surface water is readily available. In the South Johnstone area
stock are generally holding with those in the Cardwell and Tully areas
generally being in better condition. Cattle across the Normanton district
are in very good condition overall. Generally there is an excellent body of
feed across the district and recent rain has generated fresh growth. There
are no water problems reported at this stage. Cattle across the Georgetown
district are generally in good condition. There is still a reasonable body
of feed and recent rain has resulted in some fresh pasture growth. However,
the cold weather has reduced the pasture response in some parts of the
district. Rain received in June has boosted water storages across the
district and alleviated pressure on watering points. The rain has also
assisted the Einasleigh, Copperfield and Gilbert Rivers to run. Livestock
in the Bowen district range from good to score 3 and have been reduced to
an estimated 55% of normal stocking rates. Both above and below ground
water supplies are plentiful. Most pastures have greened up and growth is
generally occurring. These pastures appear to be of very good quality. Some
frosts have curtailed growth on inland pastures although as stock numbers
have been reduced, pastures should now carry through until the next season
starts. There are no reports of supplementary feeding occurring at this
stage. Livestock in Charters Towers have maintained a forward store average
across most of the area except for breeders with calves at foot slipping
slightly in line with the season but should carry over the winter months.
Pasture condition is improving with soil moisture levels having increased
from earlier rain. All surface and bore supplies seem to be adequate.
West Region: In the North West stock are generally in fair to good
condition across the region although cattle in the area between Cloncurry
and Mt Isa are losing condition rapidly. Pasture in the Richmond Shire is
estimated between 80-90% hayed off. Pasture growth has not occurred as
expected following June rainfalls. Grasses have been extremely slow to
respond and while there may appear to be substantial 'green pick' much of
this is weed species. The Mitchell grass is standing well with June rains
adding to its longevity in those areas where the perennials were already in
reasonable condition. Properties in the very south of the shire are bare
and growth in these pastures is predominantly immature weed species. As the
daily temperatures continue to rise this should enable the recovery and
growth of pastures that received June rainfall. Weeds such as rattlepod,
sesbania pea and roly poly have established rapidly with the high moisture
levels in the soil. In the Mt Isa shire, pastures have hayed off
significantly and while it may appear there is substantial feed it is
predominantly Spinifex. There has been a good response to rainfall in June
due to an increase in temperature over the last few weeks. Those areas that
received rain are in a better position for good quality and quantity
pasture leading up to the end of winter. Buffel grass is predominantly
green. Pasture in the Cloncurry and McKinlay shires varies from good to
non-existent as there has been a slow response from the June rainfall due
to the low temperatures. Some producers are also reporting no Mitchell
Grass in the downs country between Cloncurry and Julia Creek due to the
reasonably poor wet season and early dry cool conditions. The cold weather
in June has prohibited a lot of the pasture cover from growing or
re-shooting. Underground and surface water is available in sufficient
quantities.
In the Central West, Longreach stock condition has fallen away as pastures
have deteriorated after winter rains. The number of livestock being sent to
sale has reduced as most producers have already sold as much stock as the
market can sustain. In Winton and Boulia shires, cattle score is generally
3 due to the low stocking rates within the shires. Winter conditions have
prevented any significant growth in the perennial grass apart from some
green shoot. It is expected that further grass growth may occur as soon as
the temperatures increase due to the remaining moisture from June rainfall.
Only moderate herbage growth was recorded this year in the Winton and
Boulia shires. The areas north of Aramac, Muttaburra and parts of
Barcaldine have responded well to the rain. The buffel country has also
shown a quick response to the rain with the district showing green shoots.
Flooded country along the rivers and creeks that once had a good body of
feed have been opportunity grazed and as a result there is not much feed
left. Winter frosts in the Blackall shire have hampered growth in buffel
grass. Water reserves are stable and there is enough surface water to last
through the winter. Large amounts of Pimelea have been reported around
Aramac.
In the South West there was no rainfall recorded for the month of July.
Stocking rates remain low and therefore the majority of stock are holding
condition or improving if fortunate enough to be where the varied rainfall
was received. This is particularly evident in the Channel Country areas.
Pasture condition is exceptionally variable and completely reliant on
rainfall and the flooded areas. The cold temperatures throughout the month
have not been beneficial for any pasture growth and the continued heavy
frosts have denuded pastures further. Water supplies are good in the South
West due to the Great Artesian Basin. As in the Central West, there are
concerns amongst producers about Pimelea.
Central Region: Some minor coastal showers in the Rockhampton district
have been reported over the month although these have not provided any
great benefit. Stock condition generally varies throughout the district
depending on pasture condition. While reports indicated falls of up to
150mm in late June, pasture response has been mixed due to colder weather
during July. Given this stock movements are still occurring throughout the
saleyards and meatworks. Currently there do not appear to be any real water
issues in the district. Pasture condition is expected to improve slightly
due to some residual surface moisture as daytime temperatures increase.
Overall the Mackay stock district looks good. Rainfall in June has kept
pastures relatively green and stock condition throughout district is
holding. There are no known water issues in the district. Stock condition
in Banana Shire has fallen in recent months partly due to the extended cold
period of this year's winter season. Ineffective rain has also contributed
to the slide in condition. Stock in the Calliope shire have generally fared
worst with limited pasture feed and colder conditions all contributing to
the continued loss of condition. Livestock in the Miriam Vale district are
experiencing similar conditions. Many producers are feeding considerable
quantities of supplements just to maintain their breeding stock. The
quality and quantity of pastures across all shires in the Biloela district
has generally declined after experiencing a number frosts along with the
extended cold. There has been no significant rainfall since June with the
exception of some very isolated falls to the north of Clermont and around
Capella late in the month. Livestock are generally in good forward store
condition and should see through to the end of the year with minimal
trouble. Stock movements through Alpha Dip have increased since the start
of the month although this is more of a reflection of cattle held up due to
the rain in June. Most dams are now at maximum or near maximum capacity.
There have been no reports of drought feeding. Generally there has been a
reliable amount of winter feed available. Rain received in June bought a
good response particularly in the Buffel grass. Although the majority of
the pastures have hayed off there is still some green pick and livestock
have benefited from this which is evident by their condition.
South-East Region: Recent cold winds and frosts have had a significant
impact on livestock condition and have generally caused weaker stock on low
quality feed to fall away. Most stock will now need careful management to
ensure they are not adversely affected by the difficult conditions.
Producers are still continuing to move stock to sale as the continuation of
drought feeding programs is not economic. This trend is likely to continue
while seasonal conditions remain poor. Feed prices remain expensive as
supply is limited with little possibility of prices decreasing in the short
term. Most producers are opting to sell stock rather than feed. Feed
quality and quantity is poor in the majority of all areas. Climatic
conditions and severe frosts have caused pastures to fall away in both
quality and quantity. Generally in winter there would be a flush of
forbs/herbage to supply stock, this does not appear to have occurred.
South Region: Stock condition generally ranges between fat score 2 to 3.
Limited summer pasture and winter herbage growth along with extremely cold
conditions over the previous two months has adversely affected stock
condition. Pasture availability is low and quality is poor. Soaking rain
was required this winter to generate adequate winter herbage and forage
supplies and this did not occur. While graziers have reduced livestock
numbers to ensure higher survival numbers, many younger animals have also
been forced to sale. Supplementary fodders continue to be difficult to
procure and costs remain high. Water is a major concern with many dams now
empty and bores having failed within the eastern and central Downs
district. Bore supplies in the western areas appear adequate.
CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE:
North Region: Frosts have been recorded in Mareeba - Dimbulah area with
damage reported to mango, lychee, longan, jack fruit and star apples.
Further to this, damage was also reported to avocado trees.
Central Region: There has been no substantial rain recorded in the Dawson
and Callide Valleys during July. However conditions have been quite cool,
with low lying areas in the eastern part of the district recording more
than a week of consecutive frosts in the middle of the month. The dry
conditions have allowed growers to plant wheat and barley crops at the end
of the main planting window, with the last of the crop planted towards the
end of the second week in July. Cereal crops have benefited from the cold
conditions as growth has slowed encouraging greater yield potential to be
set. The district's chickpea crop was relatively unaffected by the frosts
as most crops were still young. Any flowering crops would have generally
continued to flower even if they had been affected by frosts due to the
good soil moisture conditions. Further rain in mid to late August would be
ideal for replenishing soil moisture levels and improve yield potentials
further. In the Central Highlands it is estimated that approximately
195,000ha has been planted to wheat and 43,000ha planted to chickpeas.
Crops have established themselves well although follow up rain will be
needed. Emerald only recorded 1.6mm of rainfall in July. More in-crop rain
will be needed to finish crops and achieve above average yields.
South-East Region: There have been considerable areas of wheat, oats and
barley planted in the region. This has been one of the largest areas
planted of late although the dry weather following planting has not allowed
any growth in the crop. Rainfall received during July for the south east
coastal region was minimal so good spring rain will be needed to replenish
farm dams prior to summer. Exceptionally severe frosts (-5 to -7°C) caused
significant damage on avocado properties in the West Moreton area near
Hampton late in the month. This has resulted in an almost complete loss of
this year's crop and severe damage to mature tree canopies that will also
cause significant crop loss in 2008. On the Sunshine Coast several
strawberry farms lost flowers to frost in mid-July. Strawberry yields were
lower than expected for July as the cold weather has slowed fruit
production. Damage to developing fruit in stonefruit orchards was also
reported.
South Region: The current soil moisture profiles and seasonal rainfall
outlook indicate a below average chance of receiving above median winter
crop yields. The area north of a line from Dalby to Yuleba has received
good June rain which has encouraged planting of chickpea, barley and wheat.
The Central Downs has received limited rainfall while producers in the
northern and western Darling Downs where the majority of rain fell have
managed to plant a reasonable amount of crop. The remainder of the region
has generally had limited planting opportunities and many growers have
opted to store available moisture for a summer crop. Most areas in the
Maranoa area are generally showing an average to below average chance of
exceeding the long-term shire wheat yield while properties on the Darling
Downs are showing a below average chance of exceeding the long-term median
wheat yield.
Water availability for fruit and vegetable growers throughout the Granite
Belt is variable. South of Stanthorpe most dam supplies have been exhausted
while to the northern and western areas on-farm storages appear better.
Frosts have also affected local production.
RAINFALL (figure in brackets indicates average)
North Region: Babinda received 133mm (132) Cairns A/P 22mm (26), Ingham
0.8mm (35), Innisfail 77mm (n/a), Townsville 0.2mm (11), Tully n/a (n/a),
Bowen 0.2mm (n/a), Charters Towers 0.0mm (n/a), Georgetown 0.0mm (5) and
Normanton A/P n/a (n/a) and Proserpine A/P 0.0mm (n/a).
West Region: Birdsville A/P n/a (14), Boulia 0.0mm (11), Windorah 0.0mm
(17), Cloncurry n/a (n/a), Mt Isa 0.0mm (9), Longreach 0.0mm (21),
Muttaburra n/a (19), Winton 0.0mm (17) and Charleville 0.0mm (24).
Central Region: Alpha recorded n/a (25), Clermont 0.0mm (23), Springsure
0.2mm (30), Mackay 0.2mm (48), Yaamba 0.4mm (34), Biloela A/P n/a (n/a), Mt
Larcom n/a (38), Gladstone 3mm (43), Theodore n/a (37), and Yeppoon 2mm
(n/a).
South-East Region: Eidsvold recorded 0.0mm (38), Gayndah 0.1mm (39),
Mundubbera 0.5mm (38), Esk 0.0mm (51), Kilkivan 0.6mm (49), Kingaroy 0.2mm
(n/a), Nanango n/a (49), Proston 0.0mm (41), and Beaudesert 0.2mm (49). On
the coastal fringe Bundaberg received 0.8mm (49), Maryborough 3mm (59),
Nambour 8mm (98) and Tewantin n/a (n/a).
South Region: Clifton n/a (43), Dalby 0.0mm (n/a), Goondiwindi 1mm (n/a),
Inglewood n/a (40), Oakey 0.0mm (38), Pittsworth 1mm (47), Stanthorpe 4mm
(52), Toowoomba AP 0.0mm (n/a), Warwick 0.4mm (n/a), Roma 0.2mm (n/a),
Miles 0.0mm (n/a), St George A/P 0.2mm (n/a) and Taroom 0.2mm (35).
WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES
North Region: There have been no water problems reported in the north
region.
West Region: Water supplies are adequate in the short term.
Central Region: There have been no reports of any major water problems
affecting properties.
South-East Region: There has generally been no improvement from last month
with both irrigation and stock water still inadequate.
South Region: Stream flow remains well below average across most catchments
throughout the region. Dam levels continue to fall with many on-farm
storages across the Darling Downs now empty.
Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY
Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454
National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)
 |
The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries. |
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