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page regenerated:
07 Aug 2008

OUTLOOK:

According to the Queensland Climate Change Centre of Excellence, based on a 'Rapidly Rising' Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) phase most of Queensland has a 50 to 70% chance of getting median rainfall for July through to the end of September. The exception is for parts of the central north where there is a lower 40 to 50% chance of getting median rainfall.

The generally useful rainfall that was recorded during mid June coincided with the passage of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO). Based on its current timing the MJO is next expected in very late July or early August. The MJO is a band of low air pressure originating off the east coast of central Africa travelling eastward across the Indian Ocean and northern Australia roughly every 30 to 60 days. Research has shown the MJO to be a useful indicator of the timing of potential rainfall events (but not amounts).

STATE OVERVIEW:

Useful rain was received in many areas across the state this month. Unseasonable rainfall across parts of North Queensland led to record totals in many places. The wet weather has provided some relief to drought affected areas. However it has also caused some delays in harvesting and combined with the extreme cold has also affected some pasture growth and stock condition. There have been some winter crops of chickpea, barley and wheat planted in the Central and Southern Queensland grain areas. Water supplies are adequate in the north and west of the state but there are still reports of shortages in the remainder of the State.

Following recommendations from the Local Drought Committee (LDC), the Minister for Primary Industries and Fisheries drought declared Beaudesert shire as at 5 June 2007. There are currently 85 shires and 2 part shires drought declared under State processes, which is equivalent to 62.5% of the land area of the State. There are also six Individually Droughted Properties (IDPs) in a further three shires.

LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES:

North Region: Unseasonable June rain across the region has been largely beneficial in the grazing areas. The cold weather associated with this rain has caused some production losses but overall livestock should now benefit from improved pasture conditions. In the Mareeba, Malanda and Innisfail stock districts pastures are good to excellent and stock are generally in good condition. Water is adequate with surface and running water in creeks and river systems. Significant rainfall was reported in the Charters Towers stock district and pastures have responded well. However the cold and wet conditions have adversely affected some stock. In the Normanton stock district there is a good body of feed and there has been a good response from recent rainfall. Stock condition is good. Recent rainfall has also resulted in fresh pasture growth in the Georgetown stock district although cold weather including frost in some parts has generally reduced the pasture response. The rain has also taken the pressure off watering points and the Einasleigh, Copperfield and Gilbert Rivers have very good flows in them. Pastures in the Bowen stock district have dried off and most have seeded but all areas are now greening up following widespread rainfall. Water supplies above and below ground are plentiful. It is expected that livestock condition will generally improve in the immediate future following falls ranging from 100-200mm.

West Region: In the North West stock are in fair to good condition, however some cows are in poor condition as a result of early weaning. Rainfall during the month has assisted in the establishment of winter pastures in Flinders and Richmond shires. However the quality of the Flinders grass has been affected by being flattened and it is expected may only be useful for sheep feed in some areas. Underground water supplies are adequate and recent rainfall has topped up natural water holes and dams. In the Central West cold conditions have caused a set back in stock condition across parts of Boulia, Winton and Longreach shires and rainfall has caused much of the remaining supply of Flinders grass and other annual species to deteriorate. The buffel grass country north of Aramac, Muttaburra and parts of Barcaldine shire has shown a quick response to recent rainfall. However areas receiving no rain continue to dry off and pastures have below maintenance nutritional quality, particularly in the area south of Longreach towards Stonehenge and Jundah. Pimelea has been reported in many areas. There has been some patchy rain and very cold temperatures recorded in the South West. Stocking rates remain low with the majority of stock holding condition and improving where rainfall has been received. Flooded areas are providing fattening feed in the form of native sorghum and other palatable species and a number of properties located within the Channel Country are beginning to restock. Pasture condition is variable across the area and completely reliant on rainfall and the flooded areas.

Central Region: Some pasture deterioration has occurred across the region from the moist conditions with paddocks of dry grass breaking down to form mould. Producers who were feeding stock prior to the recent rainfall have continued feeding to carry stock through the cold and wet conditions. Old pasture has broken down in some areas. Buffel pastures are responding in some districts but no significant response is expected until there is warmer weather and longer daylight hours. Stock and pasture condition varies across the Rockhampton stock district. The recent cold and wet weather has had an impact with some cattle losing weight. Properties that have had very little feed available will generally benefit from recent rain, however, in the short term benefits may not be great due to the cold weather inhibiting grass growth. There have been some reports of dry feed being destroyed by recent rains, laying down and blackening grass. Some properties still require heavy rainfall to alleviate water concerns although most areas have received small inflows from recent rainfall. In the Belyando, Peak Downs and Jericho stock district generally livestock condition is good and there have been no reports of drought feeding. Recent rain will help maintain pasture although with the cold weather pasture response could be limited by lack of warm sunlight needed to promote extra growth. Pasture response from recent rain in the Mackay stock district has been affected by cold weather and shortened hours of sunlight, particularly in the hinterland. Coastal areas are experiencing better conditions.

South-East Region: The cold winds and wet weather experienced over the past month have impacted on livestock condition. Stock in areas where feed is scarce are beginning to lose weight as they chase any available green pick. Feed prices remain expensive and many producers are opting to sell stock rather than drought feed. Stock are continuing to move to sales in larger than average numbers. Although the rainfall has promoted some pasture growth, the quality and quantity is poor in the great majority of areas. In some areas frosts have burnt off any available green feed.

South Region: Stock condition is generally between fat score 2 to 3. Across the shire stock production has been limited by low pasture and forage growth during summer. Pasture availability is currently low and quality is poor. The recent cold weather has limited pasture response in many areas. The majority of graziers in south Queensland have reduced their livestock numbers to ensure their survival. There has been a high number of younger livestock sent to the saleyards as producers continue to destock. Supplementary feeding is widespread.

CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE:

North Region: Harvesting of grass seed crops (Rhodes, Signal, Floren and Gatton Panic) finished on the Tablelands this month with yields and quality varied due to wet conditions during harvest. Harvesting of Stylo crops will commence in late July but some crops may be harvested earlier due to frost damage. Lab Lab crops are flowering well. The peanut harvest has finished with the late planting and dry start to the season affecting yields and quality. Grain crops in the Lakeland district have been mixed due to dry conditions at planting and very wet later in the season. Production in vegetable crops in the Bowen district was delayed this month with paddocks too wet for growers to harvest or plant. The disruption to supply caused a spike in prices with limited supplies of broccoli, tomatoes, beans and zucchinis available. Wet and overcast conditions have affected fruit quality of banana crops in the wet tropics but due to supply and demand issues prices remain high. The sugarcane crush slowly got underway this month with the northern mills at Mulgrave and Tully starting in June and Mossman mill to start in early July. Further south the mills in the Herbert and Burdekin have been delayed due to wet weather but will commence crushing in July. In the Burdekin all the fallow sugarcane blocks have been planted and growers have commenced drying blocks down for harvesting.

Central Region: Soil moisture levels have been replenished in the Dawson Callide Valley following a wet and cool month. A small area of the district's winter crops were planted in May and rain has delayed further planting in some areas. Most of the region's summer crops were harvested before the rain, although there are small areas of sorghum yet to be harvested. There has been a great start for winter crops on the Central Highlands with an estimate of around 30 000 ha of chickpeas planted, with an expectation of a total of around 125 000 ha of winter cereals to be planted. The citrus and vegetable harvest and flowering mangoes have all been affected by the extended wet periods.

South-East Region: There have been considerable areas of wheat, oats and barley planted in the region during June. Harvesting of the main season avocado variety Hass continued with high crop volumes reported. The custard apple and persimmon season has now finished and harvesting of macadamia nuts and strawberries continued this month.

South Region: The area north of a line from Dalby to Yuleba received good June rain resulting in plantings of chickpeas, barley and wheat. Much of the remainder of the region has had limited planting opportunities and many producers have decided to store available moisture for a potential summer crop. Areas within the Darling Downs have below half full soil moisture profile levels with some areas of the Downs and South West recharging to only 20 to 30% of potential soil moisture profile level. Water availability for fruit and vegetable growers on the Granite Belt is variable with many growers south of Stanthorpe having exhausted their dam supplies. Generally supplies to the north and west have better storages.

RAINFALL (figure in brackets indicates average)

North Region: Babinda received 196mm (208) Cairns A/P 64mm (50), Ingham 135mm (43), Innisfail 182mm (n/a), Townsville 110mm (20), Tully n/a (n/a), Bowen 123mm (n/a), Charters Towers 197mm (n/a), Georgetown 98mm (6) and Normanton A/P n/a (n/a) and Proserpine A/P 198mm (n/a).

West Region: Birdsville A/P n/a (8), Boulia 17mm (7), Windorah 3mm (12), Cloncurry n/a (n/a), Mt Isa 114mm (3), Longreach 59mm (13), Muttaburra 117mm (13), Winton 82mm (11) and Charleville 32mm (19).

Central Region: Alpha recorded 105mm (43), Clermont 149mm (24), Springsure 113mm (24), Mackay 128mm (64), Yaamba 155mm (38), Biloela A/P n/a (n/a), Mt Larcom 162mm (36), Gladstone 155mm (35), Theodore 85mm (28), and Yeppoon 202mm (n/a).

South-East Region: Eidsvold recorded 127mm (38), Gayndah 148mm (30), Mundubbera 120mm (31), Esk 97mm (51), Kilkivan 99mm (40), Kingaroy 87mm (n/a), Nanango 121mm (34), Proston 88mm (31), and Beaudesert 63mm (49). On the coastal fringe Bundaberg received 141mm (54), Maryborough 94mm (64), Nambour 145mm (95) and Tewantin n/a (n/a).

South Region: Clifton 47mm (32), Dalby 105mm (n/a), Goondiwindi 52mm (n/a), Inglewood 102mm (28), Oakey 81mm (33), Pittsworth 57mm (37), Stanthorpe 68mm (38), Toowoomba AP 56mm (n/a), Warwick 59mm (n/a), Roma 53mm (n/a), Miles 90mm (n/a), St George A/P 15mm (n/a) and Taroom 105mm (25).

WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES

North Region: Water storages are in good supply for this time of year with flooding in many rivers and creeks throughout June.

West Region: No water supply issues reported.

Central Region: Runoff has been minimal. Any further rain should run off now as the soil profiles are generally full across the region.

South-East Region: There is generally a lack of adequate supplies of both irrigation and stock water.

South Region: Water storage levels continue to fall in many areas. Many on-farm storages across the Darling Downs are empty.

Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY

Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454

National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)

The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries.