SITUATION AS AT 31 MARCH 2007
OUTLOOK:
Based on a Consistently Near Zero Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) phase
and historical rainfall records, there is a 40 to 60% chance of getting
median rainfall throughout Queensland for April through to the end of
June. According to the Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries
climate staff, at this time of year a return to consistently negative
values would be a warning sign for a likely dry winter/spring.
The sorghum cropping regions of southern Queensland has a very much
below average crop yield expectation. This compares to central
Queensland where there is an above average crop yield expectation.
Rainfall during February in central Queensland has triggered late
plantings and improved the current sorghum crop outlook for that region.
The regional sorghum crop outlook is based on the assumption of cropping
after a winter fallow and does not take into account effects of poor
crop nutrition or damage due to pests, diseases, heat or frosts.
The 2006/07 summer cropping season currently indicates that there is a
low chance of getting the long term average sorghum yield on a shire
basis. Throughout Southern Queensland sorghum yields are expected to be
below average and in Central Queensland sorghum yield expectations are
similar to or slightly above that of the long-term average.
STATE OVERVIEW:
Rainfall has generally been average to below average across most of the
State during the month. Some of the pastures that have responded from
earlier summer rain have started to hay off although there are some
areas mainly in North and West Queensland where there is still good
quality and quantity pasture growth. Water is generally an issue in many
areas of the south and south east of the State. Overall, livestock
condition ranges from fair to very good. The ongoing wet and overcast
conditions in the north are causing delays in cane planting. Cropping in
the south east has been severely affected by the poor season.
Following recommendations from the Local Drought Committee (LDC), the
Minister for Primary Industries and Fisheries drought declared Cooloola
Shire as at 12 March 2007. As at 31 March 2007 there are 74 shires and 3
part shires drought declared under State processes, which is equivalent
to 63.4% of the land area of the State. There are also 87 Individually
Droughted Properties (IDPs) in a further 12 shires.
REGIONAL SUMMARIES:
North Region: Rainfall was generally below average across the region
although most areas received some rain. Overall the northern wet season
has been fair. There are some areas that received below average
rainfall, particularly around the southern portions of Etheridge and
Croydon shires, but overall the majority of the region had a reasonable
wet season. Cattle have responded well and are generally in good
condition. The ongoing wet and overcast conditions along the wet
tropical coast are causing delays in planting and cane is growing
slowly.
West Region: Rainfall across the west region for the month of March has
primarily resulted from storm activity. Rivers in the south west have
had good runs. Isolated pasture growth has occurred where storms were
received, particularly in the Boulia, Winton, northern Aramac,
Muttaburra and parts of the Barcaldine Shires. Given this, response has
been in line with storms received in each area. Those areas where rains
were received, pasture response has generally been favourable and stock
are in fair to good condition. Cows with calves at foot are in lower
condition scores than those without.
Central Region: Most areas throughout the central region have recorded
some useful rain during March. Pastures have responded well to recent
falls although high temperatures have hayed off pastures in some areas.
South of Rolleston in the Bauhinia Shire and some areas in the Nebo
shire have missed out on the rain and conditions in these areas have
deteriorated. Stock are generally in a good to very good condition.
High temperatures have also affected the last plantings of dryland
sorghum and mungbean crops. While the majority of all shires appear to
have adequate water in the short term there are still some pockets in
the south where water is a concern. Overall more rain is generally
required.
South-East Region: Rainfall received during the month was variable
although generally below average in most areas. Coastal areas received
some useful rain. Inland from the coast however conditions remain dry
with very little relief rain being received. Livestock condition varies
widely throughout the region although the majority of all animals are
now holding condition. Cropping in the south east has been severely
affected by the poor season. Water supplies are variable across the
region.
South Region: Rainfall received across the district has generally ranged
between 10 to 50mm. Most pastures are low in quantity and quality with
prospects for grain yields being below average given the current dry
conditions. Cotton production is limited due to the unavailability of
irrigation water. General soaking rain is required across the region as
the pasture growing season is coming to a close. There is some concern
as to whether current pasture supplies will be sufficient to carry stock
through winter. Water supplies are continuing to be an issue for the
majority of the properties in the region.
LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES:
North Region: Following on from excellent rainfall that was received in
summer there is still good pasture quality and quantity as well as good
water availability in most areas. Areas around the Mareeba and
Georgetown stock districts have seen a decline in pastures as they begin
to dry off. Pastures in the Normanton district are generally still very
green. Cattle are beginning to return in low numbers to the Charters
Towers area as pasture feed supplies increase. Bowen is looking green
and reduced stocking numbers in the district should assist pasture
recovery. Further rain is still required in the Etheridge and Croyden
shires to alleviate the affects of the drought. Generally stock in the
region are in good condition and have responded well to the available
green feed. There are no reported water problems through out the region.
West Region: Rainfall across the west region has generally resulted from
storm occurrences. Some areas in the Channel Country have received good
rain which promoted pasture growth. The forest country to the north of
Flinders and Richmond Shires remain in very good condition following
storm activity. However, areas to the very south of the Flinders
district generally require more relief rainfall as the land is looking
particularly bare. In the south west pasture is in good condition due to
earlier floods and follow up rain. There is a good bulk of herbage in
the South west, however due to high temperatures and strong winds
pastures have dried out in some areas. Overall stock generally appear to
be in average to good condition across most of the region due to low
stocking rates. In some areas where there has been good follow up rain
some stock are returning from agistment. Producers are still remaining
cautious though to maintain low stocking rates as they are aware of the
need to receive good, overall rainfall to provide sufficient feed
resources for many months.
Central Region: Generally, the central region recorded useful rain
during the month and pastures have responded well. Some areas are now
carrying a good body of feed. South of Rolleston in the Bauhinia Shire
and some areas in the Nebo shire were unfortunate to miss out of some of
the rain and pasture have suffered as a result. As a result of high
temperatures received in March some pastures have hayed off after
receiving rain. Stock are generally in good to very good condition.
This however is dependent on supplementary feeding in the drier areas.
South-East Region: Livestock condition continues to vary widely
throughout the region although the majority of livestock are now
maintaining condition. Generally, pasture quality and quantity is
reported as being poor across the district. Even along the coast where
there has been some useful rain, pastures are very short and low in bulk
for this time of year. Many producers are opting to sell stock rather
than supplement feed as stock feed prices are exceptionally expensive
and supply is short. Stock are going to sale in large than average
numbers.
South Region: There has been little change to seasonal conditions in the
south region since last report. Stock are generally holding condition
between score 2 to 3 although it is expected that stock condition may
decline if there is no improvement in current pasture conditions.
Pastures are generally low in quality and quantity and as the cooler
months approach there is the risk that pastures may continue to
deteriorate. Those areas fortunate enough to receive some of the storm
rain has benefited from a small increase in pasture quality and
quantity. Given this, further follow up rain is still required to carry
over into the winter months. Supplementary feeding is still continuing
in most areas. This generally reflects current conditions given that
most producers in the district have reduced stocking numbers. Water
carting operations for livestock is continuing.
CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE:
North Region: On the Tablelands rhodes grass crops are growing well and
will be harvested in early to mid May. Legume seed crops are also
progressing well. Some early planted peanut crops have been harvested.
Avocado harvesting is almost complete. In the Bowen area growers are
preparing to harvest tomato crops in the next few weeks. Water
allocations in the Bowen area have increased with an allocation of 85
percent around the coastal region and 100 percent for the remainder of
the area. The dryer conditions in the Burdekin have generally been ideal
for cane growers with planting underway. Growers in the Herbert district
are expected to commence planting next month. In the Tully district, the
wetter conditions has slowed the growing of cane crops and delayed
ground preparations for planting.
Central Region: Across the Callide Dawson region the last plantings of
dryland sorghum are in the grain fill stage although have it has been
slightly affected from the high temperatures received during March.
Sorghum harvested this month in the Dawson Valley has seen yields vary
from 0.7 to 3.5 t/ha. Central Queensland sorghum yields are expected to
reach or achieve slightly above the long-term average. Heat wave
conditions have also affected the flowering mungbean crops in the Dawson
district. With the summer season drawing to a close many growers are now
waiting for the winter planting window to open in April and May.
However, the amount of rain in received in the coming three months will
determine the amount of crop planted.
South-East Region: Cropping in the south east has been affected by poor
seasonal conditions. Yield prospects are low for most crops unless
useful rainfall is received. Many crops have already been harvested for
stock feed. Harvesting of the avocado Hass variety and early season
custard apples began in March. Good prices have been reported for the
custard apples so far. Macadamia harvesting continued into March with
some reports of a fall in price when compared to last year. Strawberry
plantings began in mid March. Horticulture production in the Bundaberg
region is expected to begin by the end of April. Tomato and capsicum
plantings should almost be complete although zucchini plantings should
continue in the short term.
South Region: The western area of the region has not received sufficient
summer rain to plant. Early planted crops in the Eastern Downs have been
harvested although with mixed quality and yields. The majority of the
dryland cotton failed and has now been ploughed-in. Limited irrigation
supplies across the Border Rivers district have resulted in below
average planting of cotton. Water and irrigation supplies continue to be
an issue for the region. In the Granite Belt district, fruit and
vegetable growers south of Stanthorpe have generally exhausted dam
storages causing some vegetable plantings to stop. The north side of
Stanthorpe as well as some areas to west appear to be holding a little
better with reports of adequate water storages for the coming season.
RAINFALL (figure in brackets indicates average)
North Region: Babinda received 398mm (816) Cairns A/P 219mm (449),
Ingham 249mm (454), Innisfail 360mm (n/a), Townsville 78mm (176), Tully
n/a (n/a), Bowen 31mm (n/a), Charters Towers 45mm (n/a), Georgetown 72mm
(140) and Normanton A/P n/a (n/a) and Proserpine A/P 79mm (n/a).
West Region: Birdsville A/P n/a (19), Boulia 5mm (35), Windorah 7mm
(32), Cloncurry n/a (n/a), Mt Isa 68mm (65), Longreach 40mm (65),
Muttaburra 39mm (64), Winton 42mm (51) and Charleville 39mm (59).
Central Region: Alpha recorded 7mm (70), Clermont 7mm (75), Springsure
44mm (69), Mackay 127mm (312), Yaamba 50mm (117), Biloela A/P n/a (n/a),
Mt Larcom 16mm (109), Gladstone 17mm (104), Theodore 34mm (46), and
Yeppoon 89mm (n/a).
South-East Region: Eidsvold recorded 6mm (71), Gayndah 35mm (59),
Mundubbera 26mm (56), Esk 75mm (87), Kilkivan 21mm (85), Kingaroy 46mm
(n/a), Nanango 52mm (74), Proston 30mm (68), and Beaudesert 39mm (100).
On the coastal fringe Bundaberg received 80mm (129), Maryborough 83mm
(134), Nambour 102mm (215) and Tewantin n/a (n/a).
South Region: Clifton 16mm (73), Dalby 17mm (n/a), Goondiwindi 21mm
(n/a), Inglewood n/a (59), Oakey 22mm (52), Pittsworth 21mm (69),
Stanthorpe 73mm (75), Toowoomba AP 5mm (n/a), Warwick 32mm (n/a), Roma
31mm (n/a), Miles 47mm (n/a), St George A/P 31mm (n/a) and Taroom 40mm
(64).
WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES
North Region: Water storages are in good supply for this time of the
year.
West Region: Generally there does not appear to be any water supply
issues with the majority of all storages having been replenished.
Central Region: Most shires appear to have adequate water in the short
term although there are still pockets in the south where water is a
concern. More rain is required to carry over into the winter months.
South-East Region: Water supplies in the region are variable. Some
storages are adequate while others are well below average. Good rains
are needed to replenish existing water storages.
South Region: Water is still an issue with the majority of all storages
continuing to fall. Streamflow has been well below average and aquifers
have not had any recovery.
Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY
Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454
National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)
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The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries. |
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