SITUATION AS AT 31 MAY 2007
OUTLOOK:
According to the Queensland Climate Change Centre of Excellence, there
has been a slight improvement in the seasonal outlook for Queensland.
The 30 day average of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has continued
to trend slowly upwards to minus 0.4 as at 4 June 2007. Based on a Near
Zero SOI phase at the end of May there is currently a 50 to 60% (with a
few locations up to 70%) chance of getting median rainfall during June
to August. As most of the southern two thirds of Queensland will require
several years of good rainfall to fully recover this should not be
interpreted as the automatic start to drought-breaking rains. For there
to be a lift in rainfall probabilities and a sustained and significant
improvement in seasonal conditions, the development of consistently
positive monthly SOI values would help.
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) crossed northern Australia early
May. It was associated with some rainfall during that period although
the larger falls occurred largely in NSW and Victoria. The next passage
of the MJO is due to cross northern Australia in the second half of June
(around the 20th). The timing of this MJO should coincide well with the
onset of the Indian Summer Monsoon. The MJO is a band of low air
pressure originating off the east coast of central Africa travelling
eastward across the Indian Ocean and northern Australia roughly every 30
to 60 days.
STATE OVERVIEW:
Stock condition throughout the State generally appears to be holding
well considering the current climatic conditions. Rainfall received at
the beginning of the year has assisted producers in the north and the
Channel Country. Livestock condition across the rest of the State has
generally been maintained through lower stocking rates. Pastures are a
reflection of where the rain has or has not fallen with the coastal
districts generally doing better than the inland areas. There have been
some winter crops planted in Central Queensland but generally the South
and South East regions require substantial follow up rain to ensure
suitable planting conditions.
Following recommendations from the Local Drought Committee (LDC), the
Minister for Primary Industries and Fisheries drought declared Maroochy,
Caloundra City, Caboolture, Pine Rivers, Redcliffe City and Brisbane
City shires as at 24 April 2007; Goondiwindi Town Shire as at 1 May
2007; Stanthorpe as at 25 May 2007 and part Tiaro Shire being Local
Council Divisions 2 and 3 as at 1 April 2007. There are currently 84
shires and 2 part shires drought declared under State processes, which
is equivalent to 62.2% of the land area of the State. There are also 7
Individually Droughted Properties (IDPs) in a further 4 shires.
LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES:
North Region: Livestock generally appear to be in good condition across
the whole region with no drought feeding taking place. In the Charters
Towers area, breeders with calves at foot are slipping slightly but
should carry over through the winter months. The wet coast has gone from
having an excellent start to the season to average due to consistent
rain. There has been good pasture growth to date. Normanton and the
surrounding area still has a lot of feed from previous rains although it
is starting to dry out as the season progresses. There are a few
isolated areas around Georgetown where the feed is low. In the Bowen
district pastures are haying off with most having seeded. There are only
isolated areas along the ranges and other sheltered spots where pastures
are still green. With a few more good falls of rain and the current
reduction in stock numbers available pastures should carry through if
the season starts early. There have been no reports of water shortages.
West Region: In the North West lactating stock are losing condition
rapidly. Dry stock are in store condition. Many properties have
commenced dry lick supplementation and some producers are taking
advantage of the export market with large numbers of stock being sold
off to overseas markets. Pasture has dried off significantly. In the
Camooweal area a good quantity of pasture is evident in the silky
browntop/bluegrass with patches of Mitchell grass. The growth of soft
roly poly and pea species in the Flinders and Richmond shires continues
to misrepresent the actual pasture quantity. In the Central West cows
are generally in very good condition with limited numbers showing signs
of poor or forward store condition. Weaning has commenced. Large
numbers of sheep are still moving out of the district with many heading
for southern abattoirs. Stocking rates are extremely low. Livestock
are being forced off agistment and alternative facilities are difficult
to find. There are minimal feed reserves across the area and pastures
have generally dried off. In the South West stocking rates remain low
and the majority of stock are holding condition and improving where the
varied rainfall has been received. Flooded areas are providing welcome
fattening feed in the form of native sorghum and other palatable
species. A number of properties within the Channel Country are
beginning to restock. Pasture condition is variable and depends on
rainfall and the flooded areas.
Central Region: Stock condition is comparable to rainfall received and
ranges in condition from good to poor depending on the location. In the
Rockhampton area stock are generally faring well and stocking numbers
have been reduced. Some areas of Fitzroy, Rockhampton and Mount Morgan
shires are looking bleak and due to lack of rain in the pasture growing
season will not have enough pasture to carry stock through winter.
Livestock in the Biloela region vary in condition from forward store to
poor, depending on the location. There are reports from the Cracow area
that considerable early weaning is occurring. Drought feeding is
continuing and other producers have chosen to send cattle to agistment
rather than drought feed. Pasture has generally dried off although in
the places where the patchy rain was received the pasture has freshened
up. There is very little pasture around the Calliope area and what is
left is very dry and brittle and of low nutritional value. Pastures
have also dried off in the Miriam Vale shire, particularly in the north.
Grass still has a green tinge in parts of Belyando shire and cattle are
in good condition. Livestock are also in good condition in the Mackay
area and coastal areas and some parts of the surrounding ranges are
green. The hinterland ranges from mature pasture with a hint of green
to areas with poor to low stands of pasture.
South-East Region: Livestock condition is declining throughout the
region. While the warm weather conditions have helped stock over the
last few months, many producers are now planning to sell larger
proportions of their cattle due to a shortage of feed and water
supplies. Stock are now moving to sales in larger than average numbers.
Stock feed is becoming harder to source and prices remain high. Those
electing to feed are having to source fodder from further distances.
Pasture quality and quantity is generally poor in the majority of all
areas. Even along the coast where there has been some useful rain,
pastures are very short and low in bulk for this time of year.
South Region: Stock condition currently lies between fat score 2 to 3
with stock production being limited by low pasture and forage growth
during summer. Above average winter rainfall is now required if
sufficient herbage and forage is to grow to maintain condition. Pasture
availability is currently low and quality is poor. There may be some
chance of pasture response if further rain was received, however the
onset of cold weather would generally limit any growth. There have been
noticeable increases in the number of livestock sent to sale as a direct
consequence of the extended drought. The limited feed available has
forced many producers to sell their younger stock earlier than normal.
Supplementary feeding is now widespread throughout the region. Given
this many producers are reconsidering this option as the practice
becomes very expensive over extended periods of time. Water is a major
concern with many dams dry and bores on the eastern portion of the
region failing. Those areas to the west around Roma, Bendemere and
Bungil with bores have reasonable supplies to date.
CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE:
North Region: On the Tablelands growers have commenced harvesting grass
seed crops such as Rhodes, Signal, Floren and Gatton Panic. Overall the
majority of crops appear very good. Legume seed crops are growing well
and flowering at present. Peanuts are being harvested although yields
may be down this year due to a dry start and constant rain later in the
season. This has prevented access to crops for normal disease control
practices. Maize crops are maturing. The cropping season in the Bowen
district is well under way with reports of good prices being achieved
for tomato crops. Melons, corn and capsicums are also being harvested.
Banana crops have been affected by wet and overcast conditions in the
wet tropics although due to supply and demand prices still remain high.
Root rot is a common occurrence in Paw Paw crops. In the Burdekin all
the fallow sugar cane blocks have been planted and growers have
commenced drying blocks down for harvesting due to commence in mid June.
In the Herbert district cane planting is under way although there have
been some delays due to wet weather. Cool nights and warm days have been
providing ideal growing conditions and harvesting is expected to
commence mid June. On the Tablelands the current cane harvest is
estimated at approximately 8000 Ha. Yield and sugar content are down
with blocks averaging about 80t/ha.
Central Region: There has been very little rain recorded throughout the
Dawson and Callide Valleys with only one major rainfall event reported
in the Theodore area. Chickpea planting is underway in the Theodore
irrigation area, with some deep seeding occurring around the Biloela
area. Growers who did not plant cotton through the summer season in the
Dawson Valley irrigation area will be looking to plant chickpeas or
wheat for the upcoming season. The sorghum harvest is under way in the
Central Highlands with some crops looking to be sprayed out in the next
two weeks. This should see harvesting close to completion by the end of
June. Most crops have yielded in the range of 1.2 - 2.5 t/ha however at
the top end this has been in the range of 3t/ha. It is estimated that
around 20,000ha of chickpeas have been planted, half of which is in the
irrigation area. The majority of the dryland crop was deep planted and
has started to emerge. There has only been minimal wheat planted to
date. Water availability from the Fitzroy River is good although all
other areas are generally poor as there has been no aquifer recharge.
South-East Region: Rainfall received during May along the south east
coastal region was poor and well below the expectations. Currently there
are no indications of any winter cropping in the region without
significant follow up rainfall. Avocado harvesting has continued through
May with crop volumes reported to be high. Custard apple harvesting is
progressing although the season is almost complete. Strawberry
harvesting of early varieties began in May although crop volumes are
very low at this early part of the season.
South Region: As sub-soil moisture profiles are depleted the current
yield outlook is likely to be poor unless substantial rain is received
to ensure suitable planting conditions. Irrigation water is in very
short supply. On the Darling Downs and Border Rivers area planting rain
is required with follow up falls to replenish soil moisture profiles.
Summer cropping has generally failed in the Maranoa/Balonne area. The
optimum period to plant wheat was early May however there has been
insufficient rain to plant. Similar conditions persist throughout the
Western Downs. Water availability for fruit and vegetable growers
throughout the Granite Belt differ depending on where they are located.
South of Stanthorpe growers have generally exhausted dam supplies while
to the north and some areas west of Stanthorpe, growers generally have
adequate storages.
RAINFALL (figure in brackets indicates average)
North Region: Babinda received 626mm (427) Cairns A/P 151mm (107),
Ingham 65mm (126), Innisfail 472mm (n/a), Townsville 3mm (40), Tully n/a
(n/a), Bowen 11mm (n/a), Charters Towers 14mm (n/a), Georgetown 0mm (10)
and Normanton A/P n/a (n/a) and Proserpine A/P 43mm (n/a).
West Region: Birdsville A/P n/a (14), Boulia 18mm (14), Windorah 26mm
(23), Cloncurry n/a (n/a), Mt Isa 6mm (17), Longreach 0.4mm (29),
Muttaburra 6mm (22), Winton 4mm (23) and Charleville 25mm (41).
Central Region: Alpha recorded 6mm (40), Clermont 8mm (47), Springsure
4mm (47), Mackay 159mm (115), Yaamba 12mm (63), Biloela A/P n/a (n/a),
Mt Larcom 17mm (63), Gladstone 14mm (70), Theodore 33mm (47), and
Yeppoon 76mm (n/a).
South-East Region: Eidsvold recorded 9mm (44), Gayndah 10mm (41),
Mundubbera 9mm (40), Esk 25mm (59), Kilkivan 56mm (49), Kingaroy 14mm
(n/a), Nanango 17mm (48), Proston 20mm (45), and Beaudesert 13mm (76).
On the coastal fringe Bundaberg received 13mm (69), Maryborough 42mm
(78), Nambour 91mm (139) and Tewantin n/a (n/a).
South Region: Clifton 0.6mm (48), Dalby 9mm (n/a), Goondiwindi 16mm
(n/a), Inglewood n/a (43), Oakey 5mm (45), Pittsworth 7mm (44),
Stanthorpe 7mm (52), Toowoomba AP 14mm (n/a), Warwick 2mm (n/a), Roma
6mm (n/a), Miles 7mm (n/a), St George A/P 22mm (n/a) and Taroom 5mm
(42).
WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES
North Region: Water storages are generally in good supply.
West Region: Water supplies are generally holding well with the
exception of some surface water issues in the North West district.
Central Region: Water shortages are being experienced across the
majority of the region. While some dams around Livingstone and Fitzroy
shires have been topped up, the majority of dams are low and producers
are carting water.
South-East Region: Lack of adequate supplies of both irrigation water
and stock water continues to be a problem.
South Region: On farm storages in the region are very low and bores on
the eastern portion of the region have failed. Areas to the west with
bores appear to have reasonable supplies to date.
Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY
Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454
National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)
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The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries. |
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