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page regenerated:
07 Aug 2008

OUTLOOK:

According to the Queensland Climate Change Centre of Excellence, based on a shift in monthly Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) values from plus 2.17 for September to plus 6.14 for October the SOI is remains in a "Near Zero" phase. An analysis of historical rainfall data and this SOI phase indicate the chances of getting the long term median rainfall for November to January are close to 50 to 60 percent. Further analysis indicates rainfall for Queensland is more likely to be close to the long term average (or middle third) rather than well above or below average. So while the chance of getting above median rainfall is not high there remains a quite reasonable chance of getting some rainfall. The current outlook is also an improvement on this time last year when much of the state had as low as a 10 percent chance of getting median rainfall.

The Bureau of Meteorology indicates minimum temperatures for the November to January period are favoured to be warmer than normal across Queensland. The chances of increased overnight warmth (averaged over the coming three months) in Queensland are mainly between 60 and 75 percent.

STATE OVERVIEW:

Given the prolonged and continued drought conditions throughout Queensland, livestock are generally holding well in most regions. Once again this has been aided by extensive destocking programs and some recent rain which has prompted a slight improvement in pastures. Substantial rain is still required to generate adequate quantities of feed for summer. Grain prices remain high which is affecting those producers who are currently undertaking drought feeding programs or operating dairies and feedlots. At the end of October, current soil water conditions and seasonal rainfall outlook indicate an even chance of an above or below median yielding sorghum crop for the 2007/08 summer growing season. There remains, however, variation in the outlook among local regions. Most areas in Central Queensland and Southeast Queensland show average to above average crop yield expectations, while most cropping areas in Southwest Queensland show sorghum yield outcomes slightly below the long term expectation.

Following recommendation from the Bundaberg and District Local Drought Committee, the Minister for Primary Industries and Fisheries drought declared the Burnett Shire from 2 October 2007. There are currently 83 shires and 2 part shires drought declared under State processes, which is equivalent to 62.4 percent of the land area of the State. There are also 22 Individually Droughted Properties (IDPs) in a further five shires. Generally the southern two thirds of the state, with the exception of some coastal areas, remains drought declared.

LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES:

North Region: As summer approaches temperatures in the north region continue to rise and storm activity was widespread across all districts. Overall rainfall totals were around average. Generally stock are in line with what could be expected for this time of the year. The normal practice of feeding dry season supplements is occurring widely. In the Mareeba district some early seasonal storms have assisted pasture response in the better managed pastures. Stock generally appear to be in normal condition across most parts of the north with the exception of wet cows with calves. Water supplies appear adequate. Hay supplies have improved locally and there now are plentiful reserves. The eastern side of the Malanda and Innisfail stock district has benefited from coastal influences which have generated some beneficial falls. Eacham shire pastures not affected by frosts are in fair condition although all are showing a drop in quality and quantity. Cattle are in normal condition and groundwater availability is good. In the Charters Towers district pasture condition is stable for this time of year and should benefit from isolated showers in most areas. All surface and bore supplies are reported to be adequate. Livestock have maintained a forward store to store average across most of the area except for breeders with calves at foot which are slipping slightly in line with the season. The Normanton district has experienced early storms and fires have burnt out a large area of country in Burke Shire. Pastures appear to be in average to slightly above average condition in the Georgetown district. Water supplies are adequate and if some reasonable storms are received across the district there should be a good response due to sub soil moisture carried over from winter rain.

West Region: Stock condition in the North West is generally holding with livestock in fair to good condition across the northern and central portions of the Cloncurry and McKinlay shires. Drought strategies have been employed in the southern areas with the majority of livestock being sent to sale. The majority of pasture in the Richmond and Mt Isa shires is drying off. June rainfall has adversely affected the majority of the remaining annual Flinders grass and the response of the Mitchell Grass from this rainfall has generally been slow. In the Cloncurry and McKinlay shires pasture conditions range from average in the northern section, good to very good in the central district and well below average in the southern area.

Rainfall has been variable across the Central West with Tambo reporting the highest fall of 22mm. Cattle are holding condition due to low stocking rates on most properties. Cold conditions have generally prohibited growth in perennial grasses apart from some green shoot. As the temperatures increase, further growth may occur due to the remaining moisture received from rainfall earlier in the year. The areas north of Aramac, Muttaburra and parts of Barcaldine have seen a good response in Mitchell Grass following on from recent rain. Buffel grass country in the Blackall district has responded well however, the Mitchell Grass Downs has been slower to respond, particularly for this time of year.

In the South West stocking rates remain low therefore the majority of stock are holding condition and are improving where rainfall has been received. This is particularly evident in the Channel Country areas. Where the rain has fallen for the northern half of Murweh and Tambo shires, may result in some good spring herbage growth. The southern half is still very dry with virtually no winter rain received. Pasture condition is exceptionally variable and is completely reliant on where rain has fallen and the flooded areas in the south west. There is still some good herbage and pasture growth in the Channel Country, however it is drying off quickly with the warmer weather and will need further follow up rain to maintain it through summer.

Central Region: Livestock condition is generally good across the region with the Central Highlands enjoying good seasonal conditions although there is a general deterioration in condition towards the southern coast. Cows are currently calving so extra pressure will be placed on breeder condition. Many of the male components of the herds have been sold due to dry conditions. Extensive drought feeding is occurring along the southern coast and normal dry season supplements are being used in other areas. Improved pastures have responded well where good rainfall was received although the recent heat has tempered the quantity and without further rain this response may soon dry off. Native pasture areas along the coast are in poor condition. Pasture quality and quantity in the northern section of Belyando shire is above average with a green pick still available in the buffel however this will change with the onset of hot weather. Pasture condition in Jericho shire is reported to be average but the eastern part of Peak Downs shire continues to be very dry, with the western area in a better situation. Stock condition in the Rockhampton district is generally holding at present and stocking numbers have been reduced. Pasture response is limited and hand feeding is taking place. Water supplies are looking good at present as some farm dams have been topped up following storm activity during the month.

South-East Region: There has been some useful rain for all areas in the South East this month. This has assisted in a favourable start to spring, however, hot dry weather towards the end of the month has dried off pasture and halted winter crop growth. Major rain is still needed across inland areas to alleviate severe water shortages. Livestock condition in most cases is now being maintained. The rain received has allowed a short green pick to grow and this has improved livestock condition. Sale cattle numbers continue at normal levels but prices are low. With general rain it would be expected that cattle numbers to sales will decrease markedly. Most properties have now been able to stop drought feeding.

South Region: Stock condition is generally holding or improving with an increase in pasture production. Fat scores range are between 2 to 3 with cows with calves at foot worse affected. The majority of producers have destocked heavily during the prolonged drought. Supplementary feeding needs have diminished with improved pasture production as pastures have responded well to the recent rainfall and warmer weather. Herbage production in the Dalby and Tara districts has decreased with the warmer weather although it has been valuable in maintaining stock production. Overall the pasture response for most of the region has been good, however in the lower rainfall areas around the south west production has been limited. There has been some good runoff in recent times. The dam storages have improved on the Downs. Bore supplies in the western areas are adequate to date.

CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE:

North Region: On the Tablelands Lablab crops are being harvested and yields have been good. Ground preparation now underway for the forthcoming summer crop season. The Bowen vegetable cropping season is drawing to a close with some growers already finished. The planting of forage sorghum cover crops is expected to commence soon. In the wet tropics mango and lychee crops have experienced a massive flowering which may potentially provide for a good crop come harvest. Ideal growing conditions for bananas are being experienced with seasonal thunder storms occurring across growing districts. Longan crops are flowering and rambutans should flower soon. In the Burdekin region the cane harvest has progressed slowly with steady rain causing delays and putting harvesting behind schedule.

Central Region: In the Central Highlands harvesting is currently about 80 percent complete with only very late planted crops still remaining. The later wheat crops planted at the end of June are averaging around 1.25 - 2.5 t/ha. Low protein levels have been reported in some wheat crops as yields have been higher than expected. Chickpea crops are reported to be one of the best in recent years with yields ranging from 1.25t/ha to 3t/ha. During the middle of the October most of the Dawson/Callide region was fortunate to have received rain. Harvest in this region is around 80 to 90 percent complete with crops planted in May/June yielding well. Cereal crops are generally around 2.5t/ha at 12-13% protein and low screenings. Crops planted earlier in the year have not fared as well with lower yields (around 1.2t/ha) and lower grain quality (high screenings). Air temperatures have been very hot and although they have returned closer to average the rain received has provided spring crops with an ideal start.

South-East Region: Drought has been a major impediment to winter crops in the Burnett. Although an estimated 15,000 ha were planted, yields are expected to be low due to lack sufficient rain during the growing periods. Late rains received in August/September were both light and arrived too late to be of any great beneficial to most crops. Water remains critical in the irrigation areas. North Bundaberg has 47 percent allocation and South Bundaberg and Isis have 3 percent. Cane in the Maryborough area has been affected by winter frosts damaging much of the crop. Coastal avocado growers have generally completed their harvesting. Large supplies of fruit continue to enter into the market and this has resulted in lower prices. The low chill stonefruit harvesting season did not start until the beginning of October when normally it is underway by mid September. This may be a result of unusually cold weather at the beginning of the fruit development in July. Crops have varied in quality and size. There have been reports of storm damage to citrus orchards in the Gayndah/Mundubbera area resulting in significant fruit loss for some growers.

South Region: Early October hail and wind storms damaged crops in the higher yielding areas of Jandowae to Drillham. There have been reports of good crop yields around Chinchilla and Dalby but a high percentage of screenings recorded in the Dalby district. The main planting window for sorghum on the Darling Downs is mid October to mid November, however, there has been extensive planting since September. Dryland cotton on the Darling Downs has soil moisture profiles between 30 to 70 percent with mid October to late November being the planting window. Irrigation allocations are low in the Goondiwindi, St.George and Dirranbandi areas which is expected to limit plantings. Water availability for fruit and vegetable growers throughout the Granite Belt has improved. Stonefruit is currently being irrigated for this year's production with further watering required at the end of November.

RAINFALL (figure in brackets indicates average)

North Region: Babinda received n/a (109) Cairns A/P 34mm (n/a), Ingham 37mm (47), Innisfail 95mm (n/a), Townsville 14mm (25), Tully n/a (n/a), Bowen 12mm (n/a), Charters Towers 17mm (n/a), Georgetown 4mm (n/a) and Normanton A/P n/a (n/a) and Proserpine A/P 32mm (n/a).

West Region: Birdsville A/P n/a (12), Boulia 13mm (13), Windorah 13mm (17), Cloncurry n/a (n/a), Mt Isa 0.6mm (20), Longreach 8mm (18), Muttaburra 0.8mm (22), Winton 5mm (16) and Charleville 22mm (31).

Central Region: Alpha recorded 18mm (34), Clermont 24mm (36), Springsure 59mm (42), Mackay 49mm (39), Yaamba 17mm (42), Biloela A/P n/a (n/a), Mt Larcom 37mm (59), Gladstone 52mm (61), Theodore 80mm (64), and Yeppoon 19mm (n/a).

South-East Region: Eidsvold recorded 111mm (66), Gayndah 168mm (62), Mundubbera 66mm (71), Esk 43mm (82), Kilkivan 5mm (75), Kingaroy 61mm (n/a), Nanango 82mm (79), Proston 72mm (70), and Beaudesert n/a (n/a). On the coastal fringe Bundaberg received 74mm (67), Maryborough 42mm (75), Nambour 66mm (107) and Tewantin n/a (n/a).

South Region: Clifton 94mm (67), Dalby 61mm (n/a), Goondiwindi 87mm (n/a), Inglewood 33mm (58), Oakey 80mm (61), Pittsworth 87mm (67), Stanthorpe 70mm (76), Toowoomba AP 68mm (n/a), Warwick 65mm (n/a), Roma 49mm (n/a), Miles 81mm (n/a), St George A/P 23mm (n/a) and Taroom 68mm (60).

WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES

North Region: No water problems to report with all major storages holding good supplies.

West Region: Underground and surface water is still generally sufficient. Water supplies in the South West are holding due to a good supply from the Great Artesian Basin.

Central Region: Water supplies are holding with no reports received of any major problems.

South-East Region: Major rain is still needed across inland areas to alleviate severe water shortages.

South Region: Water storage levels continue to fall with many on-farm storages across the Darling Downs now empty. There has been no recovery of aquifers and stream flow is well below average across catchments throughout the region.

Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY

Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454

National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)

The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries.