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page regenerated:
07 Aug 2008

OUTLOOK:

According to the Queensland Climate Change Centre of Excellence, based on a shift in monthly Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) values from plus 1.8 for August to plus 2.2 for September the SOI is in a "Near Zero" phase. An analysis of historical rainfall data and this SOI phase indicate the chances of getting the long term median rainfall for October to December are close to 40 to 50% for most of Australia.

Further analysis indicates rainfall for Queensland is more likely to be close to the long term average (or middle third) rather than well above or below average. So while the chance of getting above median rainfall is not high there remains a quite reasonable chance of getting some rainfall. The current outlook is also an improvement on this time last year when much of the state had as low as a 10% chance of getting median rainfall.

Interestingly a Near Zero SOI phase at this time of year is also associated with an increased chance of hail and thunderstorm activity throughout northern NSW and southern Queensland. This is due to the increased instability of the middle atmosphere (600mb to 500mb) combined with cool air at those levels. When the SOI is in a Consistently Positive phase at this time of year the middle atmosphere is generally warm and moist reducing the opportunity for severe storm activity but favouring more general widespread rain and tropical cyclones. If the SOI is in a Consistently Negative phase this is generally associated with a drier middle atmosphere reducing the potential for severe storm activity.

The 30 day average of the SOI as of the 8th October is plus 4.2. Again it would help if the SOI went 'Consistently Positive' (say above plus 7.0) and remained there for a number of months. The last time the SOI was in a "Consistently Positive" phase for more than one month was from September 2000 to March 2001.

STATE OVERVIEW:

Historically, September is a relatively low rainfall month for Queensland. North Queensland received above average rainfall for the month and the South East also experienced some good falls. Scattered isolated storms have been reported in western Queensland and temperatures are beginning to rise. Rain in early September in the Dawson and Callide Valleys has sparked further spring sorghum planting and improved the prospects of the limited area of earlier sown spring sorghum. The harvest is under way in the Central Highlands with some good yields from the early planted wheat and chickpea crops being achieved. Extensive bushfires were reported in the north west of the state around Burketown during the month. Livestock condition varies throughout the state with most producers in drought declared areas running lower than normal stock numbers. Drought feeding is continuing in many areas where pasture is bare or where it has not responded as well to winter rainfall.

There are currently 82 shires and 2 part shires drought declared under State processes, which is equivalent to 62.2% of the land area of the State. There are also 17 Individually Droughted Properties (IDPs) in a further five shires. Generally the southern two thirds of the state, with the exception of some coastal areas, remains drought declared.

LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES:

North Region: Above average rainfall was common across much of the inland districts this month although monthly averages for September are historically low. The days started to heat up towards the end of the month and some quite large fires have been reported in the north west of the region around Burketown. In general pasture and livestock remain in above average condition for the time of year, as a result of one of the wettest winters on record, and should hold until summer storms could reasonably be expected. Apart from normal dry season supplementation programs there is little evidence of large scale drought feeding programs occurring.

West Region: Pastures vary from good to non-existent across the region. Pastures in a reasonable condition prior to getting good June rain have responded as the weather has warmed, however, significant areas remain almost bare of pastures. Mitchell grass recovery is patchy but generally better in the north. Pasture in the channel flood out country is reducing in quality and quantity rapidly with the onset of higher temperatures. Increasing temperatures and reducing quality and quantity of pastures is resulting in stock, particularly lactating females, reducing in condition. Property owners are generally running lower than normal stock numbers and that is allowing dry stock to remain in a reasonable condition in many places. Saleable fat stock is being sold to slaughter across the North West.

Central Region: Stock condition varies across the region but generally stock are strong in all areas. The widespread winter falls across some areas have provided enough pasture response to give some improved nutrition resulting in weight gain in stock. The increased temperatures and early storms following winter have also led to a good pasture response, although south of Rockhampton and south of Duaringa still have poor pasture conditions. Drought feeding is continuing in some areas where pasture has not responded as well to the winter rainfalls. Weeds are also a problem in some areas.

South-East Region: The early part of September provided useful rain for many areas in South East Queensland. Livestock condition is now being maintained in most areas. The rain has allowed for a good short green pick to grow. This feed is good quality but in short supply in some areas. The number of sale cattle has decreased due to the break in the season. Feed prices continue to be expensive for those producers supplementary feeding their stock. The warmer weather towards the end of the month has dried off some pastures.

South Region: September is historically a low rainfall month. Northern areas of the Darling Downs and Roma districts received falls of around 25 to 50mm. Stock condition is currently average across the region although cows with calves have slipped in condition slightly. Stock have improved in the northern parts of the region where rain has generated feed for stock. Overall many graziers continue to reduce livestock numbers to ensure animal survival. Pasture availability is low and the quality is generally poor.

CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE:

North Region: On the Tablelands Lablab crops are being harvested and yields have been reasonably good. Ground preparations for the summer crop planting are also under way. The Tablelands are continuing with the potato harvest with yields being down in the areas that were affected by frost over winter. The cropping season for tomatoes, beans, capsicum, corn and melons in the Bowen district continues. The prices for pumpkins and cherry tomatoes are high due to unseasonable conditions during winter affecting the production of many of the crops. Mango and lychee crops are experiencing a massive flowering at present which may provide potential for a good crop come harvest. Cane harvesting continues in all districts.

Central Region: Harvesting is underway in the Central Highlands and will continue into October. There have been reports of some good yields in the early planted wheat and chickpea crops. The Dawson and Callide districts received welcome rain in early September. This rain has allowed a further spring sorghum planting and improved prospects of the limited area of earlier sown spring sorghum. The winter crop harvest in the Dawson and Callide districts will be in full swing across the region by mid to late October.

South-East Region: The large supply of avocadoes on the market over the last few months caused poor prices and has seen some growers on the Sunshine Coast and West Moreton hold off from harvesting their crop with the hope that prices will lift in October. Harvesting of avocadoes in the Bundaberg area generally finished in September. Large areas of wheat, oats and barley have been planted in the region although lack of winter rain has severely stressed many of these crops. The welcome rain earlier in September has saved many of these crops although the longer dry period in the months leading up to September has compromised yield potential. The heavy rainfall near the end of August caused extensive crop loss to strawberry farms on the Sunshine Coast and the rain that fell in early September caused further damage to mature fruit on some farms.

South Region: In the area north of the line from Dalby to Yuleba chickpea, barley and wheat crops have been planted. Historically, sorghum's main planting window on the Darling Downs is mid October to mid November, although this season up to a quarter of crop area is planted already. Generally growers in the southern areas are waiting for warmer soils and more rain before planting. Water availability for fruit and vegetable growers throughout the Granite Belt has been variable with the northern and western areas having better storage supplies. Stonefruit are currently being irrigated and will require watering again at the end of November.

RAINFALL: (figure in brackets indicates average)

North Region: Babinda received 26mm (122) Cairns A/P 2mm (n/a), Ingham 22mm (33), Innisfail 22mm (n/a), Townsville 2mm (10), Tully n/a (n/a), Bowen 17mm (n/a), Charters Towers 7mm (n/a), Georgetown 8mm (5) and Normanton A/P n/a (n/a) and Proserpine A/P 21mm (n/a).

West Region: Birdsville A/P n/a (4), Boulia 0.0mm (6), Windorah 0.0mm (9), Cloncurry n/a (n/a), Mt Isa 0.0mm (8), Longreach 12mm (9), Muttaburra 2mm (10), Winton 0.4mm (7) and Charleville 4mm (21).

Central Region: Alpha recorded 6mm (18), Clermont 30mm (15), Springsure 38mm (26), Mackay 50mm (15), Yaamba 170mm (24), Biloela A/P n/a (n/a), Mt Larcom 14mm (22), Gladstone 41mm (24), Theodore 77mm (28), and Yeppoon 82mm (n/a).

South-East Region: Eidsvold recorded 34mm (29), Gayndah 54mm (30), Mundubbera 38mm (29), Esk 40mm (37), Kilkivan 48mm (31), Kingaroy 24mm (n/a), Nanango 41mm (33), Proston 36mm (31), and Beaudesert n/a (n/a). On the coastal fringe Bundaberg received 49mm (30), Maryborough 117mm (29), Nambour 144mm (43) and Tewantin n/a (n/a).

South Region: Clifton 33mm (38), Dalby 26mm (n/a), Goondiwindi 2mm (n/a), Inglewood 2mm (n/a), Oakey 25mm (32), Pittsworth 34mm (33), Stanthorpe 14mm (46), Toowoomba AP 34mm (n/a), Warwick 31mm (n/a), Roma 27mm (n/a), Miles 20mm (n/a), St George A/P 1mm (n/a) and Taroom 39mm (28).

WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES:

North Region: Water storages are in good supply with flooding in many rivers and creeks during the wet season and good flows again during winter.

West Region: Underground and surface water is available in sufficient quantities.

Central Region: There are no reported water problems in the Central Region this month.

South-East Region: Some dams and watercourses have been topped up following rain in August and September.

South Region: Water supplies continue to be an issue in Southern Queensland.

Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY

Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454

National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)

The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries.