SITUATION AS AT 30 APRIL 2008
OUTLOOK:
>From the Queensland Climate Change Centre of Excellence:
According to the Queensland Climate Change Centre of Excellence, the
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is currently in a positive phase. The
30 day average of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) remains positive
and the average for April 2008 was 4.44. The outlook for April to June
2008 indicates a 30 to 60 percent chance of above median rainfall for
much of Queensland.
While this represents a shift towards drier conditions, winter is
traditionally Queensland's dry season. Some regions in the Gulf of
Carpentaria and Cape York have a 50 to 80 percent chance of exceeding
their median rainfall.
Some regions in the far west, south and North Queensland have a 30 to 50
percent chance of exceeding median rainfall. The outlook indicates that
the Cooloola -Sunshine Coast area has a 70 to 80 percent chance of above
median rainfall.
The La Nina sea surface temperature pattern that has persisted in the
Pacific over summer has become less intense. As this pattern breaks down
over autumn, some areas of Queensland will remain drought affected. It
is worth noting that just as El Nino does not always equal a drought, La
Nina events do not always bring above average rain and floods to eastern
Australia.
STATE OVERVIEW:
Following recommendations from the Maryborough Local Drought Committee
and the Barcaldine Local Drought Committee, the Minister for Primary
Industries and Fisheries has officially revoked from drought the former
Biggenden Shire and Division 2 of the former Tiaro Shire as at 13 April
2008, along with the former Aramac and Barcaldine Shires as at 30 April
2008.
Currently the land area of Queensland drought declared under State
processes has decreased from 60.2 percent to 58.3 percent. There are 18
Individually Droughted Properties (IDPs) in a further four shires.
The Minister for Emergency Services has activated Natural Disaster
Relief and Recovery Assistance (NDRRA) covering 83 percent of the land
area of Queensland, following significant rainfall in some parts of the
state.
LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES:
North Region: The northern wet season finished at the end of April with
most districts receiving significant rainfall and improved seasonal
conditions. This has been particularly evident in the southern parts of
the region and the lower cape districts. The exception to this being in
the southern gulf districts and a small area from Ingham to Tully. The
dry finish to the season has only had minor impact due to good soil
moisture levels although some of the rain fed cane crops are in need of
further moisture. The warmer temperatures have provided ideal growing
conditions for most horticulture crops. Across the extensive grazing
lands pastures have hayed off as expected and producers have commenced
normal dry season supplementation programs. Generally all stock remain
in good condition.
West Region: Good rainfall in the eastern district of the region has
resulted falls up to 700mm for the summer. This has resulted in a good
pasture response in the Hughenden, Richmond, Muttaburra, Aramac,
Barcaldine, Jericho, Alpha, Blackall, Tambo, Charleville and Cunnamulla
areas. Some producers in these areas are now in a position where they
can take advantage of the feed and provide agistment. Significant hay
baling particularly of native pastures is occurring through this part of
the region. West of Richmond and through the towns of Julia creek,
Winton, Longreach, Jundah, Quilpie and Thargomindah the rainfall and
pasture response has been patchy with most areas missing out. Further
west around Mt Isa, Cloncurry, Camooweal, Birdsville, Bedourie, Boulia,
Stonehenge and Eromanga conditions remain very dry. Most available feed
has gone and many producers are destocking early to avoid declining
pastures. Significant flooding through the Cooper, Warrego, Paroo,
Bulloo systems has benefited producers allowing them to increase their
options for production. Areas to the west continue to destock with the
deteriorating pasture conditions. Pimelea is still a problem in areas
that received winter rainfall and there is no competition from other
pasture species. Pimelea has been reported on soils not traditionally
associated with this plant.
Central Region: Pastures have dried off significantly and having set
seed the nutritional value has dropped dramatically particularly in
pasture that has gone to seed. Saleyard numbers are increasing in
response to the dry conditions. Weaning is underway and this should
preserve breeder condition. Much of the buffel grass remains green and
is considered by graziers to be excellent feed for bullocks. Stock
Movements appear to be normal for this time of year with no significant
drought feeding being carried out. Most districts generally have a good
body of feed following an improved summer season.
South-East Region: Most centres across the region reported below average
rainfall for the month of April. While there were isolated storm events
good rainfall is now needed to allow planting of a winter crop. Stock
condition through out the district remains good. However, with the
cooler weather and deteriorating pasture quality it could be expected
that stock will lose some condition. Sale cattle numbers continue at
normal levels and prices have remained static. There is generally a good
bulk of pasture on most properties although as this dries off it may be
necessary to provide supplementary feeding for stock. Many farms
prepared silage and baled fodder crops for hay for the coming season.
Wet conditions over summer and a dry start to autumn are expected to
reduce the quality of hay this winter. Currently there is no drought
feeding currently occurring. Many producers have. Supply of water varies
markedly from farm to farm. Some properties have full dams whilst
neighbouring areas still have empty dams and watercourses. Significant
general rain is still needed to run creeks and fill dams.
South Region: Livestock condition is currently in forward store to fat
condition. Most producers are closely monitoring summer pasture
conditions prior to making management decisions. The dry conditions have
caused pastures to hay off and although there is generally a reasonable
quantity of summer pasture grown across the region, there are some
locations around the Miles, Goondiwindi, Tara and Bell districts where
native or improved pastures have not responded. A dry period starting
February has limited the establishment of winter herbage and has raised
the issue of whether there will be sufficient feed to carry stock
through winter. An increase in pasture availability in the dairy
producing areas has reduced the need to supplementary feed.
CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE:
North Region: On the Atherton Tablelands growing conditions have been
ideal following a very good wet season. Peanut crop harvesting has
commenced and good yields are anticipated. Production levels in maize
crops are expected to be around 1.5t/ha above district averages. In the
Bowen-Gumlu districts growing conditions have been ideal with the
production of tomatoes, capsicums, egg fruit, sweet corn and melons up
from the previous year. Harvesting of this year's summer crop is due to
commence soon. In the wet tropics the dryer conditions have benefited
both the paw paw and banana crops with a large amounts of fruit expected
to be picked over the coming months. The low rainfall totals is this
area may impact on irrigation supplies later in the year although near
average rainfall during winter would alleviate any issues. In the
Herbert district those farmers that have sufficient soil moisture have
commenced planting sugar cane. In the Burdekin district good growing
conditions for cane have been good with a plentiful water supply and
fine sunny weather. Planting is underway and without rain delays should
be completed mid May. On the Tablelands growers have been irrigating
through out most of April. Crop estimates are expected to be around
700,000 tonnes which will exceed last year's crop.
Central Region: While the chances of above median wheat yields during
the 2008 wheat-growing season are average across most of Queensland,
there is some variation within certain parts of the Central Highlands
showing a slightly above average chance of exceeding the long-term
median wheat yield. In the Emerald district over half the sorghum crop
has been harvested with yields ranging from 1.85 - 2.7 t/ha. Mungbeans
crops have been provided with ideal growing conditions following good
rainfall and a dry harvest with yields generally expected to be around
1.5t/ha. Chickpea plantings have commenced across the Central Highlands
and with excellent soil moisture currently present this is now the ideal
planting window for crops. In the Dawson Callide there has been some
wheat on the back of rain that fell during late March in the Jambin and
Mt Murchison districts. While these crops have generally emerged
satisfactorily, there is a significant frost risk if the predicted
cooler than average seasonal conditions eventuate. The summer crop
harvest is almost complete with yield and grain quality generally being
above average. Earlier sown spring and summer crop paddocks are
expected be doubled cropped into wheat or chickpea although this will be
dependent on significant rainfall occurring in the coming weeks.
South-East Region: In the South Burnett cropping region corn is now
being harvested as it dries off. Yields have been average to better
depending upon individual in crop rainfall. Current dry conditions have
been ideal for soybean harvesting and returning average yields. Most
sorghum crops have now been harvested with good yields and excellent
prices. Earlier in the year there was potential for a large winter crop
planting although dry conditions during the last two months has limited
the opportunity to plant. In the Burnett Coast district peanuts crops
are getting threshed with weather conditions being favourable for
harvesting. Yield estimates to date indicate a reduction compared to
last year. Sugarcane productivity generally appears to be lower this
season despite good summer rainfall. The cloudy conditions coupled with
persistent south-east winds have eroded the benefits of recent rainfall.
In other horticulture activities the planting of strawberry runners for
the 2008 season was completed in April. Initial reports indicate that
establishment has been good without any significant problems to date.
Custard apple prices are reported to be good although disease has
generally been a problem due to the wet summer weather. Harvesting of
the early season Shepard avocado has generally finished in the Bundaberg
area. Early reports show a lower than expected crop although the fruit
quality and size is good. Passionfruit growers on the Sunshine Coast
report only modest crops over the autumn period but prices have been
very good due to lower volumes on the market.
South Region: There was extensive planting of sorghum, corn, soybean
and sunflower during summer with all crops generally returning above
average yields and prices. The dry March and April ensured an
uninterrupted sorghum harvest with the bulk of the crop being harvested
with little weather damage. Temporary storages have been required
on-farm due to excellent harvest results. Early planted crops have
generally resulted in the better yields. The price and yields received
for sorghum grain has assisted to offset input production costs. Wheat
plantings have been dependent on good autumn rainfall although there is
reasonable subsoil moisture availability. Dryland farmers are preparing
for an extensive planting of wheat given the good soil moisture levels
and high prices forecast. An early frost has caused damage to
horticultural crops. On a more positive note, Granite Belt dam levels
should ensure up to 18 month supply for most fruit and vegetable
growers.
RAINFALL (figure in brackets indicates average)
North Region: Babinda received 38mm (571) Cairns A/P 27mm (n/a), Ingham
33mm (219), Innisfail 182mm (n/a), Townsville 2mm (61), Tully n/a (n/a),
Bowen 0.0mm (n/a), Charters Towers 0.0mm (n/a), Georgetown 0.0mm (n/a)
and Normanton A/P n/a (n/a) and Proserpine A/P 2mm (n/a).
West Region: Birdsville n/a (12), Boulia 0.0mm (14), Windorah 0.0mm
(22), Cloncurry n/a (n/a), Mt Isa 0.0mm (16), Longreach 0.0mm (41),
Muttaburra n/a (37), Winton 0.0mm (33) and Charleville 0mm (34).
Central Region: Alpha recorded n/a (27), Clermont 0.0mm (43), Springsure
0.8mm (46), Mackay 11mm (154), Yaamba 1mm (53), Biloela A/P n/a (n/a),
Mt Larcom 13mm (56), Gladstone 5mm (54), Theodore 0.8mm (49), and
Yeppoon n/a (n/a).
South-East Region: Eidsvold recorded 38mm (50), Gayndah 6mm (47),
Mundubbera 38mm (42), Esk 20mm (73), Kilkivan 2mm (66), Kingaroy 3mm
(n/a), Nanango n/a (57), Proston 4mm (52), and Beaudesert n/a (n/a). On
the coastal fringe Bundaberg received 4mm (70), Maryborough 13mm (87),
Nambour 44mm (n/a) and Tewantin 129 (n/a).
South Region: Clifton 28mm (52), Dalby 14mm (n/a), Goondiwindi 10mm
(n/a), Inglewood 0.9mm (48), Oakey 5mm (47), Pittsworth 33mm (47),
Stanthorpe 37mm (53), Toowoomba AP 20mm (n/a), Warwick 20mm (n/a), Roma
0.2mm (n/a), Miles 12mm (n/a), St George A/P 0.0mm (n/a) and Taroom
0.0mm (41).
WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES
North Region: There are no issues to report with both the major water
storages currently sitting at 100 and 99 percent respectively.
West Region: With the exception of the north west of the region where
some properties have a reliance on surface water, reserves are generally
good.
Central Region: There still remain some water issues in the Banana,
Monto and Calliope districts however all other areas appear to be
adequate.
South-East Region: Water supplies vary across the district although
significant general rain is still required to run creeks and fills on
farm dams.
South Region: Stream flow has been slowed as a result of limited
rainfall over the previous two months. While there has been some
recovery of aquifers on farm water storages continue to fall.
Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY
Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454
National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)
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The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries. |
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