SEASONAL CONDITIONS AS AT 31 DECEMBER 2008
OUTLOOK:
>From the Queensland Climate Change Centre of Excellence:
Based on the monthly Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) values recorded
for November of plus 17.4 and for December of plus 11.6, the SOI has
remained in a Consistently Positive phase.
An analysis of historical rainfall records and a Consistently Positive
SOI phase at the end of December indicates a reasonable 50 to 70% chance
of getting above median rainfall during January through to the end of
March across most of Queensland. The main exception is for the coastal
strip running from the Hervey Bay district through to north of
Rockhampton where there is a higher 70 to 80% chance of getting above
median rainfall during January through to the end of March.
The Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries seasonal crop outlook
at the end of December, shows that current soil water conditions and the
seasonal rainfall outlook indicate a very good chance of an above median
yielding sorghum crop for the 2008/09 summer growing season for most of
the north east Australian cropping region. The slight improvement in
crop yield outlook from the previous month results from the average
rainfall recorded for most of the cropping region during December and
the favourable seasonal climate outlook with "La Nina like" conditions
prevailing. There remains, however, variation in the outlook among local
regions.
Some areas in southeast Queensland are showing a highly increased chance
(i.e. >80%) of above average crop yield expectations, while most areas
in Central Queensland and the remainder of the state show a moderately
increased chance (i.e. 60% to 80%) of sorghum yield outcomes to be above
the long-term expectation.
STATE DROUGHT DECLARATIONS:
As at 31 December 2008, 54.3 percent of the land area of Queensland is
drought declared under State processes. There are also nine
Individually Droughted Properties (IDPs) in a further three areas.
LIVESTOCK, PASTURES AND WATER:
North Region: Hot dry conditions early in the month followed by general
intermittent storms during the second half would best describe
December's weather. On the whole near average falls were recorded
across the region. The grazing industry has generally ceased operations
for the year as saleyards and meatworks close down for the Christmas
break.
West Region: A monsoonal low in the far north has brought heavy rain to
the state's north-west region in the first week of 2009 and this will be
reported on in the January 2009 Seasonal Conditions Report.
Prior to these falls high temperatures and relatively low amounts of
soil moisture had been drying pastures in most areas where only minimal
rain had been received. Pastures that were already experiencing some
response from recent rains were starting to build some bulk however high
temperatures and hot winds slowed growth. Areas that previously had
little pasture cover and had received rain have now developed some
herbage response. Buffel has responded quickly on lighter country. Areas
to the east of the region generally have existing bulk however pasture
quality is poor.
Large areas in the west region continue to require supplements for stock
however in light of recent rain there will be some relief for producers.
Where sufficient rain has been received to the east of the region,
quality pasture has been produced and reduced the need for
supplementation. Stock condition is generally in line with the current
pasture conditions. Most of the channel country is now destocked or
running very low numbers due to poor pasture availability. Stock to the
north and west of the region are losing condition and requiring
supplementation while livestock to the east of the region are generally
in strong to excellent condition being score 3 and above.
Water supplies are generally good for those with bore water. Some
producers relying on dams and surface water in the central and western
areas of the region have declining reserves with some semi permanent
waterholes in the Georgina and Diamantina systems now dry.
Central Region: Overall stock across the Central district are generally
in good condition and pastures are improving in response to rain.
Beneficial rain has been received throughout the Clermont district with
buffel grass coming back assisting livestock to remain in good
condition. Patchy storm rain has fallen in the Rockhampton district
along with an increase in summer temperatures. Stock are generally in
good condition and pastures are looking good. Water supplies are holding
although there are reports of very low storages in the Moura district
and some areas of the Calliope district. Good rainfall throughout the
Mackay district has seen hinterland cattle more productive and coastal
cattle improving in condition. Movements to abattoirs are declining.
Livestock remain in good condition across the Emerald district with both
pasture quantity and quality looking good following two positive growing
seasons with good winter and spring rain.
South-East Region: Most centres in the region reported below average
rainfall for the month. Rainfall was generally patchy and consisted of
isolated storm cells. Livestock condition is excellent with stock
movements being minimal for this time of year. There is no known full
drought feeding of stock currently occurring. Pasture quality and
quantity is rapidly improving with warm moist conditions although there
are still many major dams and watercourses that need significant rain
for replenishment.
South Region: Pastures have responded to the wide spread of rainfall
throughout the region. Excellent climatic conditions with average to
above average rainfall being recorded have seen the quantity and quality
of the pasture improving dramatically over recent weeks. Pasture growth
has been notably vigorous on the Darling Downs. Stock condition has
improved accordingly. Supplementary feeding has ceased in the Stanthorpe
region. Water supplies appear adequate and are expected to hold in the
short term.
CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE:
Central Region: The majority of areas in Central Queensland are
currently showing a moderate increased chance (i.e. 60% to 80%) of
sorghum yield outcomes to be above the long-term expectation. However,
the range of likely sorghum yield outcomes remains wide. Widespread
average to above average follow up rainfall is needed during the next
month to induce further plantings and improve the current crop outlook
for some parts of the Central Queensland cropping region. Central
Highlands rainfall has been excellent between Christmas and New Year and
there has been useful rainfall recorded in the Dawson/Callide.
South-East Region: Dry hot conditions and patchy falls of rain have
caused a mixed picture for crops with some hail damage occurring to
crops in the Burnett district. There have been significant areas of
corn, peanuts, mung beans, soybeans, sunflowers and sorghum planted with
some early corn crops already tasselled and yield prospects appearing
very favourable if further rainfall occurs.
South Region: The winter cropping season has been variable with quality
and yields ranging widely. Delays to the harvesting of wheat in the
western Downs have occurred due to rain and this in turn has caused the
grain to sprout in the head and downgrade the crop. There are reports
of contours, cultivation wash and dams being damaged on the inner Downs
due to heavy downpours. Corn, sunflower and sorghum crops continue to
improve. The spring sorghum is in excellent condition around the Dalby
area with the potential of achieving high yields. In the western areas
limited subsoil moisture has reduced planting on dryland areas. Further
hail damage has occurred in the Stanthorpe with stone fruit yields being
adversely affected by the large downpour of rain in previous weeks.
Vegetable and fruit producers appear to have sufficient water to carry
over the summer period. Dam storages are secure due to good rainfall.
RAINFALL (figure in brackets indicates average)
North Region: Babinda received 265mm (331) Cairns A/P 197mm (190),
Ingham 141mm (217), Innisfail 162mm (n/a), Townsville 179mm (148), Bowen
71mm (n/a), Charters Towers 47mm (n/a), Georgetown 74mm (n/a) and
Normanton A/P n/a (n/a) and Proserpine A/P 3mm (n/a).
West Region: Birdsville n/a (17), Boulia 4mm (28), Windorah 12mm (27),
Cloncurry n/a (n/a), Mt Isa 24mm (62), Longreach 22mm (51), Muttaburra
25mm (59), Winton 17mm (51) and Charleville 85mm (53).
Central Region: Alpha recorded 100mm (85), Clermont 151mm (101),
Springsure 195mm (107), Mackay 169mm (197), Yaamba 53mm (131), Biloela
A/P n/a (n/a), Mt Larcom 80mm (150), Gladstone 76mm (140), Theodore 37mm
(102), and Yeppoon 68mm (n/a).
South-East Region: Eidsvold recorded 45mm (86), Gayndah 25mm (112),
Mundubbera 39mm (100), Esk 144mm (111), Kilkivan n/a (124), Kingaroy
127mm (n/a), Nanango 79mm (108), Proston 52mm (108), and Beaudesert n/a
(n/a). On the coastal fringe Bundaberg received 55mm (138), Maryborough
55mm (134), Nambour 51mm (n/a) and Tewantin 37mm (n/a).
South Region: Clifton 89mm (109), Dalby 67mm (n/a), Goondiwindi 84mm
(n/a), Inglewood 53mm (86), Oakey 46mm (93), Pittsworth 113mm (104),
Stanthorpe 66mm (95), Toowoomba AP 54mm (n/a), Warwick 61mm (n/a), Roma
52mm (n/a), Miles 138mm (n/a), St George A/P 78mm (n/a) and Taroom 64mm
(104).
Information provided by:
REGIONAL SERVICES
Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454
National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)
 |
The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Environment & Resource Management and Primary Industries & Fisheries. |
| 
