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07 Aug 2008

OUTLOOK:

>From the Queensland Climate Change Centre of Excellence:

The 30 day average of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) remained positive through February, and was plus 21.0 for the month. The SOI Phase for February was 'Consistently Positive' (Phase 2). The outlook for March to May indicates a 50 to 70 % chance of above median rainfall for most of Queensland. Some scattered regions in the far west and south of the Queensland only have a 30 to 50% chance of exceeding median rainfall.

Further analysis indicates rainfall for much Queensland is more likely to be close to or above the long term average (or middle third to upper third) rather than below or well below average.

Most of Queensland has received close to or above median rainfall during so far this summer. The exceptions are the far west of the state, and the south east corner, including the Granite Belt and eastern Darling Downs.

STATE OVERVIEW:

Currently 62.4% of Queensland is drought declared under state processes. There are also 22 Individually Droughted Properties (IDPs) in a further five shires. Generally the southern two thirds of the state, with the exception of some coastal areas, remains drought declared. Local Drought Committees (LDCs) are made up of primary producer and Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries representatives. They provide recommendations to the Minister for Primary Industries and Fisheries to enable informed decisions on the drought status of an area to be made. LDCs monitor seasonal conditions throughout the year and meet at least once a year, at the end of the summer rainfall period. All LDCs will meet in March/April 2008 to assess conditions in their areas and make their recommendations.

The Minister for Emergency Services has activated Natural Disaster Relief and Recovery Arrangements (NDRRA) covering 83% of the land area of Queensland, following significant rainfall in some parts of the state.

LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES:

North Region: Stock on the Tablelands appear to be in good condition. Grass is looking washed out in many places due to continual rain during the month and warm days are needed to bring on good growth. In the Normanton stock district generally there is an excellent body of grass and stock have responded well. Abundant rainfall was recorded across the Bowen stock district during the month and pastures are now very green, plentiful and of very good quality. Livestock range in condition from fair to excellent. Stocking numbers have been reduced over the past few years. In the Charters Towers stock district there have been some heavy falls of rain causing some localised flooding. Livestock is currently at slightly forward store condition including most breeders but there is still some supplementary feeding taking place to maintain the good body condition of animals in general. Generally pasture condition is in excellent condition for this time in the season.

West Region: In the North West, stock are generally in good condition with low stocking rates in many areas. There has generally been a good pasture response in proportion to the rain received but without follow up rain and with the high temperatures experienced during January this is starting to deteriorate. Areas to the north of Mt Isa and south around Boulia remain very dry. In the Central West Blackall recorded further good falls of rain early in the month. All the rivers and creeks have had good flows. Cattle are holding or improving in condition as a result of some good pasture response. The buffel grass has responded well to the rain in the Blackall, Barcaldine and Tambo areas and there is good bulk in paddocks with few weeds. There has been patchy rainfall in the Diamantina, Quilpie, Bulloo and Barcoo shires in the South West. Stocking rates remain low and therefore the majority of stock are holding condition. There has been good pasture response in the Murweh and Tambo shires and along the flood plains along the Bulloo River and Cooper Creek. However areas of the South West around Quilpie/Cunnamulla have generally had no response and as there has been no follow up rain for the areas around Birdsville, there are no perennial grasses of value in this area.

Central Region: Stock are generally in very good condition throughout the region but some stock in flooded areas have been affected by ephemeral fever. Movement has been reduced due to flooding and wet weather and stock sales cancelled due to weather and road closures. There are no reports of drought feeding although wet season supplements are being fed. Pasture is generally very green and just starting to seed. Quantity is quite variable and areas that received earlier rain are in far better condition due to longer day lengths and high humidity and temperatures. The Belyando, Peak Downs and Jericho stock districts recorded well above average rainfall for the year and stock are generally in good order although outbreaks of ephemeral fever and flooding disruption have caused weight loss. Weeds are an issue. The Rockhampton stock district recorded good rainfall with heavier falls evident along the coast. Localised damaging flash flooding occurred in Rockhampton, Yeppoon and the Capricorn Coast. Stock and pasture condition is good throughout the district. Water supplies are very good although there is an area to the west of Rockhampton around Westwood that has not received sufficient rainfall to produce good runoff. A small number of properties in this area were carting stock water at the beginning of the month but had received some grass growing rain. Above average rainfall with the effects of the recent flooding are still lingering along the Nogoa River in the Emerald stock district. Stock are in very good condition and pasture growth is generally good although weed infestations are a problem.

South-East Region: There has been beneficial rain across most of the south-east during the month. Stock condition is generally good to very good across the region but is fair to good in some areas of the North Burnett and Wide Bay. Stocking rates are lower than normal due to the previous dry years and the high price of restocking. Pasture has responded very well to rainfall received and ranges from very good in some areas to adequate in others. Weeds are a problem in many areas.

South Region: In the Roma, Bungil, Bendemere and Warroo areas stock are generally in good condition and there is a good quantity of quality pasture. Some good but patchy rainfall was recorded in Murilla and southern Taroom shires during the month. As a result there are good quality pastures and water supplies are adequate with bores. In the northern portion of Taroom shire pastures are responding well to follow up rainfall and stock are in very good condition. Pasture is short around Toowoomba but better in Cambooya and Clifton areas and stock in these three areas are generally in good condition. In Warwick and Stanthorpe shires cattle are in very good condition and pastures are plentiful. Rivers and creeks are mostly flowing but some creeks on the eastern side of Warwick have stopped. Good storm rain was recorded during the month in the Wambo, Chinchilla and Tara area. All stock are in very good condition with stores in very high demand. Pastures are starting to respond well but in isolated areas pasture still consist mainly of summer weeds with very little native or improved pasture coming through. There has been patchy rainfall recorded in the Balonne shire although some good falls recorded around Thallon and St George. There are some areas in the south east that still need good rain. Stock are in good condition and the Mitchell, Flinders, Blue and Buffel grasses are responding well.

CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE:

North Region: On the Atherton Tableland peanut crops are growing well and perennial grass seed crops have been cut and fertilised. Legume seed crops have been planted. In the Bowen Gumlu district irrigation supplies have been replenished during the wet season. The 2008 sugarcane crop is growing well in all districts.

Central Region: Areas around Thangool which had missed earlier rainfall, recorded some useful falls during the month. Additional mung bean crops have been planted and with the follow up rain, prospects for the earlier sown crops have improved. Many of the sorghum crops across the Dawson and Callide valleys have been harvested with good grain quality being reported. Spring planted sorghum in the Central Highlands was severely affected by the dry weather but subsequent plantings showed much improvement. However following recent flooding some of the grain has gone mouldy and sprouted in the head reducing the quality with subsequent heavy crop losses reported.

South-East Region: Early planted peanut crops in the South Burnett are being pulled for harvest and the early planted sorghum crop has been harvested with yields around 5t/ha. Maize crops are looking good at this stage and there are a large number of soy, mung and navy bean crops planted. Early sunflower crops are being harvested with some minor rain damage being reported. On the Burnett Coast peanut crops are looking very good and some of the earlier planted crops are close to harvest. Cane crops are also looking good due to recent rainfall, however weeds have caused problems. Some avocado growers on the Sunshine Coast have reported poor fruit set during cold spring weather but custard apple crops are looking promising following good fruit set in late 2007. Macadamia growers are preparing for March harvest and some of this work has been hampered by wet weather. The harvesting of passionfruit has also been affected by wet weather resulting in blemishing from diseases and wind rub.

South Region: There was extensive summer crop planting of sorghum, corn and sunflower throughout the region, however a wet finish has the potential to create pest and disease problems. Water supplies on the Granite Belt have resulted in an increase in supply for fruit and vegetable growers in the Granite Belt. There has been a very good apple production season but grape growers yields have generally been lower than expected.

RAINFALL (figure in brackets indicates average)

North Region: Babinda received 625mm (738) Cairns A/P 536mm (422), Ingham 396mm (410), Innisfail 669mm (n/a), Townsville 560mm (232), Tully n/a (n/a), Bowen 707mm (n/a), Charters Towers 301mm (n/a), Georgetown 343mm (n/a) and Normanton A/P n/a (n/a) and Proserpine A/P 1004mm (n/a).

West Region: Birdsville n/a (21), Boulia 24mm (41), Windorah 17mm (45), Cloncurry n/a (n/a), Mt Isa 19mm (86), Longreach 16mm (69), Muttaburra 40mm (71), Winton 53mm (80) and Charleville 73mm (55).

Central Region: Alpha recorded 94mm (81), Clermont 256mm (104), Springsure 162mm (113), Mackay 929mm (302), Yaamba 566mm (127), Biloela A/P n/a (n/a), Mt Larcom 271mm (129), Gladstone 451mm (140), Theodore 161mm (90), and Yeppoon 576mm (n/a).

South-East Region: Eidsvold recorded 210mm (81), Gayndah 159mm (87), Mundubbera 122mm (74), Esk 221mm (100), Kilkivan n/a (94), Kingaroy 174mm (n/a), Nanango 186mm (86), Proston 121mm (77), and Beaudesert n/a (n/a). On the coastal fringe Bundaberg received 397mm (148), Maryborough 372mm (163), Nambour 284mm (n/a) and Tewantin n/a (n/a).

South Region: Clifton 114mm (87), Dalby 225mm (n/a), Goondiwindi 156mm (n/a), Inglewood 93mm (68), Oakey 142mm (84), Pittsworth 142mm (76), Stanthorpe 101mm (81), Toowoomba AP 98mm (n/a), Warwick 184mm (n/a), Roma 68mm (n/a), Miles 52mm (n/a), St George A/P 143mm (n/a) and Taroom 129mm (76).

WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES

North Region: Both the region's major water storages of Tinaroo and Burdekin Dams are at 100%. All rivers have experienced flooding flows during the month.

West Region: Underground and surface water supplies are generally good in the North West. There are reports of surface water in the Flinders shire decreasing with the hot weather. No water issues reported in the Central and South West.

Central Region: Stream flow has improved over regional catchments and there has been some recovery of aquifers as a result of seasonal rainfall.

South-East Region: Many of the major inland water storages still need further rain to fill both these dams and some farm dams.

South Region: No reported stock water issues.

Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY

Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454

National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)

The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries.