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07 Aug 2008

OUTLOOK:

>From the Queensland Climate Change Centre of Excellence:

The La Nina has now delivered and around two thirds of Queensland has recorded some useful to above average rainfall. A low pressure system combined with early seasonal rain has led to flooding in central and south west Queensland. It is worth noting however that parts of the state, especially the south east, remain fairly dry.

Floods are often associated with La Nina years. Analyses of flood heights sourced from the Bureau of Meteorology for the Macintyre River at Goondiwindi demonstrate this pattern. Since 1917 at Goondiwindi, there have been 18 months with flood heights exceeding 10 metres (major flood height is 8.5 metres). Of those 18 months, 12 coincided with a La Niņa sea surface temperature pattern and 6 coincided with a neutral sea surface temperature pattern. No floods of this magnitude have occurred at Goondiwindi with an El Niņo sea surface temperature pattern.

The 30 day average of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has remained positive, and as at 22 January was plus 16.8. The outlook for rain remains at a 50 to 70% chance of above median rainfall for much of the state for January to March. The Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au Seasonal Temperature Outlook indicates a moderate shift in the odds towards cooler than normal conditions throughout much of north eastern Australia for summer.

Maximum temperatures are likely to be close to normal throughout north eastern Australia from January to March. There is a 60 to 75% chance of getting above median minimum temperatures throughout northern Queensland. So over the remainder of summer we can expect cooler than normal maximum temperatures, and minimum temperatures will be above average in the north and close to average in the southern half of the state.

STATE OVERVIEW:

Currently 62.4% of Queensland is drought declared under state processes. There are also 22 Individually Droughted Properties (IDPs) in a further five shires. Generally the southern two thirds of the state, with the exception of some coastal areas, remains drought declared. Local Drought Committees (LDCs) are made up of primary producer and Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries representatives. They provide recommendations to the Minister for Primary Industries and Fisheries to enable informed decisions on the drought status of an area to be made. LDCs monitor seasonal conditions throughout the year and meet at least once a year, at the end of the summer rainfall period. All LDCs will meet in March/April 2008 to assess conditions in their areas and make their recommendations.

The Minister for Emergency Services has activated Natural Disaster Relief and Recovery Arrangements (NDRRA) covering 76% of the land area of Queensland, following significant rainfall in some parts of the state.

LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES:

North Region: Stock around the Tablelands and tropical coast appear to be in good condition. Good rainfall and warm days have provided ideal growing conditions for pastures with a resultant good body of feed being available. In the Charters Towers stock district above average rainfall has been recorded with minor to major flooding occurring in various areas. All lines of livestock are in excellent condition. Very good rainfall has been received over the Bowen stock district this month. Pastures are now very green and are of very good quality. Stock range in condition from good to excellent although stocking numbers have been reduced over the past few years. There is no supplementary feeding taking place. In the Townsville stock district heavy falls of rain throughout the district early in the month have been followed by humid, showery conditions with some thunderstorm activity. Some local flooding occurred and the district has responded well with good feed and water supplies in all areas.

West Region: In the North West stock are in good condition, although stocking rates are generally low. Pastures have responded well to patchy rainfall but high temperatures experienced during January and lack of follow up rain are adversely affecting growth. Many areas are still very dry. There have been no reported underground or surface water issues. Some good falls of rain have been recorded in the Central West and stock are holding or improving in condition following good pasture response. The buffel grass has responded well in the Blackall, Barcaldine and Tambo areas and there appears to be a good bulk in paddocks. Significant rainfall has been recorded in the South West in particular around Charleville, Cunnamulla, Tambo and Augathella. Stocking rates remain low and the majority of stock are holding condition. There has been a good regeneration of pasture species in the areas which have experienced good falls. However, it is expected that the Mitchell grass will take at least two good summer rainfall periods to regenerate fully as many areas have to grow from seed. Perennial pastures in the Murweh shire have had an opportunity to flourish and range from very good to patchy, interspersed with annual pasture and weed growth. The hard mulga areas around Quilpie and Cunnamulla have generally had no response but the flood plains along the Bulloo River and Cooper Creek have had good pasture growth. There has been no follow up rain in areas of the Channel Country that recorded flooding early in 2007 and therefore the pasture response in this area has been minimal.

Central Region: Overall much of the region has received very good rain during the month, with significant flooding in many of the rivers. However some areas missed out, in particular in the area around the Callide Valley. Good rainfall was received in the Rockhampton Stock District at the beginning of the month and was ideal to promote pasture growth. Heavier falls caused replenishment of ground water and stream flows. Properties west of Rockhampton, bordering the Fitzroy, Duaringa and Banana shires, have received lower rainfall figures. Stock condition remains good and although pasture has responded well, it is expected some loss of pasture will occur as a result of floods in the Fitzroy River. Follow up rain will be required to remove silt and promote new growth. Rainfall across the Biloela, Theodore, Moura, Banana, Calliope and Miriam Vale areas has been very patchy although coastal areas have recorded some heavy showers. Stocking rates on most properties in these shires are low and stock is generally in fair condition. Pastures are growing slowly but generally have not received enough rain to provide an abundance of grass filled paddocks. Water supplies are still low on many properties in this area. In the Emerald Stock District well above average rainfall and extensive flooding has occurred during the month. Flood waters have covered pastures in some areas and deposited silt which may be detrimental to the buffel grass. Pasture in non flooded areas is in exceptionally good condition. Stock is generally in good to very condition but biting insects are causing a lot of discomfort at present. The Mackay region recorded very good January rain resulting in moderate flooding and some isolated major flooding. Stock condition is favourable although performance is variable. Pasture quality and quantity is generally very good.

South-East Region: Many coastal areas have experienced significant rainfall resulting in flooding. However further inland rainfall has been variable ranging from fair to very good. Generally there has not been large general falls of rain away from the coast to run creeks and fill dams and there are still serious shortfalls in water supplies for the region. Significant general rain is needed to run creeks and fill dams. Stock condition has improved markedly due to an increase in pasture production with favourable grass growing conditions ensuring a steady improvement in body condition score over recent months. Many properties have reduced stock numbers and this has allowed most pastures to recover. There has been no drought feeding reported. Many producers have been able to plant fodder crops for hay but there have been reports of large areas of hay ruined following damp showery conditions.

South Region: Widespread rainfall was recorded across the region during the month. Although good rain was reported late last year in the Wambo, Chinchilla and Tara shires the response has been mixed as the hot dry days in early January have affected pasture quality and quantity. Stock are in forward store to fat condition. In the Roma, Bungil, Bendemere and Warroo shires stock are in good condition and there is generally a good supply of good quality pasture. Patchy rainfall was recorded for the month in the Toowoomba, Cambooya and Clifton areas. Stock are generally in good condition with good pasture growth in Clifton, but pasture has dried out in Toowoomba and Cambooya. Minimal and patchy rainfall was recorded in Crows Nest and parts of Rosalie shire with isolated pockets recording useful totals and others close by missing out. Overcast and drizzly conditions meant the eastern portions of the district recorded up to 30mm but this was generally ineffective rainfall as it was spread over several days. Stock in this area remain in forward store to fat condition, this being due to very low stock numbers and some good herbage and limited grass growth late last year. However, current pasture condition is considered very poor quantity with minimal time for a substantial body of feed to grow this summer. There has been no runoff this summer season. Good soaking rain has been recorded in the northern part of Taroom shire and as a result stock condition is improving and there are very few reports of supplementary feeding. Pasture is responding well. In the Warwick and Stanthorpe shires, there has been a very good response to rainfall with a good body of feed in most paddocks. Stock are in fat to very fat condition. Balonne shire has recorded useful rainfall resulting in a good response from the Mitchell and buffel grasses. Stock are in good condition although numbers are low.

CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE:

North Region: There are emerging crops of maize and peanuts on the Atherton Tablelands. Perennial grass seed crops have been cut and fertilised and are experiencing excellent growing conditions. Legume seed crops have been planted. The vegetable cropping season in the Bowen district has closed and cover crops are in. The 2008 sugar cane crop is growing well with plenty of soil moisture available.

Central Region: Significant differences in rainfall and hence cropping conditions have occurred between the Dawson and Callide valleys. The Dawson has received above average rainfall for January with the Callide recording below average rainfall. Significant areas of summer crop, predominately sorghum, have been planted in both valleys. In the Callide much of the sorghum crop is close to harvest but later planted crops (late December/early January)have been affected by heat and lack of rain. Summer crop plantings in the Dawson have been more staggered with many paddocks being planted in September and October. Harvesting of these crops is now under way. On the Central Highlands good spring rainfall prompted some growers to plant early sorghum and useful rainfall in December provided another planting opportunity. The huge rainfall events west and south west of Emerald caused major flooding and sorghum in these areas has germinated on the ground or sprouted in the head. Areas of sorghum and mungbeans planted since mid December are in the vegetative stage and are expected to be affected by prolonged waterlogging and the long period of cloud cover and high humidity.

South-East Region: There has been no cotton planted due to the lack of irrigation water. Sorghum and corn crops have been planted widely in the area and there have been reduced areas of peanuts planted in the Burnett. Harvest of the main lychee variety Kwai May Pink was completed in January with damage from wet weather minimal. However the harvesting of passion fruit has been affected by the wet windy weather.

South Region: Good stream flows were recorded in the north and western areas of the region after the cotton planting window closed in November 2007 with the Beardmore Dam at 100% capacity and flooding in the lower Balonne River. As the rain and resultant irrigation availability was too late for cotton planting, many producers have taken the opportunity to plant other crops such as sorghum. Corn and sunflower crops are growing well on the Darling Downs.

RAINFALL (figure in brackets indicates average)

North Region: Babinda received 384mm (689) Cairns A/P 410mm (397), Ingham 478mm (398), Innisfail 337mm (n/a), Townsville 480mm (244), Tully n/a (n/a), Bowen 47mm (n/a), Charters Towers 337mm (n/a), Georgetown 143mm (n/a) and Normanton A/P n/a (n/a) and Proserpine A/P 700mm (n/a).

West Region: Birdsville n/a (43), Boulia 0.0mm (56), Windorah 4mm (40), Cloncurry n/a (n/a), Mt Isa 33mm (96), Longreach 54mm (67), Muttaburra 111mm (91), Winton 97mm (78) and Charleville 267mm (70).

Central Region: Alpha recorded 328mm (102), Clermont 254mm (102), Springsure 365mm (101), Mackay 341mm (268), Yaamba 186mm (120), Biloela A/P n/a (n/a), Mt Larcom 122mm (138), Gladstone 137mm (150), Theodore 60mm (100), and Yeppoon 130mm (n/a).

South-East Region: Eidsvold recorded 116mm (101), Gayndah 82mm (117), Mundubbera 167mm (105), Esk 220mm (132), Kilkivan 4mm (142), Kingaroy 105mm (n/a), Nanango 122mm (110), Proston 75mm (95), and Beaudesert n/a (n/a). On the coastal fringe Bundaberg received 183mm (202), Maryborough 215mm (164), Nambour 311mm (n/a) and Tewantin n/a (n/a).

South Region: Clifton 60mm (94), Dalby 15mm (n/a), Goondiwindi 46mm (n/a), Inglewood 44mm (82), Oakey 55mm (83), Pittsworth 60mm (85), Stanthorpe 164mm (105), Toowoomba AP 35mm (n/a), Warwick 109mm (n/a), Roma 168mm (n/a), Miles 74mm (n/a), St George A/P 82mm (n/a) and Taroom 172mm (94).

WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES

North Region: There are no reported water issues. Tinaroo Dam is at 75% with inflows this month due to heavy rainfall and Burdekin Falls dam is back at 100% capacity and flowing over the wall.

West Region: Water reserves are generally good with many dams replenished in the Central and South West. There have been reports of some damage to dam banks and by washes caused by heavy rainfall in the Murweh shire.

Central Region: Significant flooding reported in most river systems. There are many reports of broken dams in flooded areas and this could cause problems in coming months for properties reliant on surface water.

South-East Region: Supply of water varies markedly from farm to farm. Significant general rain is still needed to run creeks and fill dams.

South Region: Streamflow has improved over most of the catchments. The Condamine Balonne system has benefitted from very good rainfall. Water storages have continued to rise and there has been an improvement on many on-farm storages across the Darling Downs. There has been some recovery of aquifers because of the wet conditions.

Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY

Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454

National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)

The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries.