SEASONAL CONDITIONS AS AT 30 June 2008
OUTLOOK:
>From the Queensland Climate Change Centre of Excellence:
A neutral El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) pattern is now firmly
established and is likely to continue throughout 2008. There is now only
a relatively minor possibility of an El Nino developing, and if so it
would evolve late in the year.
The winter outlook for Queensland shows a marginal shift towards wetter
conditions as a result of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) rising to
plus 2.9 for June from minus 3.5 in May. Based on the shift in monthly
SOI values the SOI is in a "Rapidly Rising" phase - Phase 4.
For much Queensland there is a 50 to 70 % chance of exceeding median
rainfall. The exception is for a region on the central north of the
state where there is a lower 30 to 50 % chance of exceeding the July to
September median rainfall. However, it is northern Australia's dry
season, and there would be little opportunity for pasture growth even if
the outlook were stronger.
Further analysis indicates rainfall for much of Queensland is more
likely to be close to or above the long term average (or in the middle
third to upper third) rather than well below (bottom third) the average.
STATE OVERVIEW:
Following the completion of the annual meetings and recommendations from
the Local Drought Committees (LDCs), the Minister for Primary Industries
and Fisheries has officially revoked from drought 28 former shires
and/or regional council areas as at 30 June 2008. Currently the land
area of Queensland officially drought declared under State processes is
54.4 percent. The Minister has also drought declared Mt Isa City Council
and parts of Cloncurry Shire Council and McKinlay Shire Council.
LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES:
North Region: Stock on the Tablelands and South Johnstone are generally
in good condition. Little rain has fallen in the past few months and
pasture on the Tablelands is haying off but is good along the coastal
area as it has recorded more rain then the Tablelands. Surface water is
readily available. Cattle in the Georgetown and Normanton districts are
generally in good condition. There is a good body of grass across the
majority of the district and this has mostly hayed off. Only a few
isolated showers recorded. Water storages are low for this time of year.
Bowen stock district recorded little rainfall this month but both above
& below ground water supplies are plentiful. Pastures are still
plentiful and of good quality but have hayed off in the non-sheltered
areas. Stock numbers have been reduced over the past few years and stock
condition is reported to be good to excellent. There are no reports of
supplementary feeding. In the Charters Towers district, pasture has
hayed off. In the Townsville district, the northern areas recorded some
light falls north of Ingham. Feed supplies are adequate and have hayed
off. No water shortages have been reported. Stock condition is reported
to be good with some seasonal supplementary feeding.
West Region: There were a few light falls of rain recorded in the North
West. There is a good body of feed in some areas and this is haying off
rapidly. Flinders grass in the Richmond Shire was in good quantities and
has hayed off significantly. The Mitchell grass dried out earlier than
predicted due to very little to no rainfall since February, resulting in
some producers commencing dry season lick feeding earlier than in
previous years. Around Mt Isa, pasture is of very limited quantity and
quality. Buffel grass and other pasture species such as blue grass have
little to no leaf and are mainly stalks. Stock condition across the
North West is beginning to deteriorate and numbers have been further
reduced in many areas. In the western areas of the Central West,
livestock are losing condition and significant destocking is occurring.
Areas to the east generally have had a good season with a good quantity
of feed available. Pasture across the region has hayed off
significantly. Around Blackall, rain at the beginning of June allowed
some buffel grass response but a few frosts have burnt some of the green
leaf. Stocking rates remain low in the South West, therefore the
majority of livestock are holding condition. For those areas where
pasture response is expected from flooding and/or rainfall, the stock
should improve their condition, with stock in Bulloo/Barcoo flood out
areas already in store to forward store condition. Re-stocking is
occurring in the Murweh and Paroo shires for those who have had pasture
response. The Murweh shire has experienced an excellent season and the
perennial pastures have flourished, especially in areas that are lightly
stocked. The good rainfall around Birdsville has promoted some herbage
growth.
Central Region: Pastures are mostly hayed off and are generally in good
quantity. The mild conditions and some rainfall in late May and in June
have maintained green pasture in some areas, with no damage from frosts
reported. Livestock are in good condition, however lactating breeders
are losing weight. Supplement feeding is reported to have commenced in
the Mackay hinterland.
South-East Region: Stock condition remains good to excellent. With
cooler weather and deteriorating pasture quality it would be expected
that stock will now start to lose condition. Sale cattle numbers
continue at normal levels. There is still a good bulk of pasture and
there are no reports of drought feeding. Pasture quality is falling with
cooler weather and frosts.
South Region: The extended dry, cool conditions have lowered the quality
of the pasture, following summer weather which produced a reasonable
quantity of pasture across the region with the exception of districts
such as Miles, Goondiwindi, Tara and Bell. Below average rainfall has
reduced the establishment of winter herbage. Stock condition has
deteriorated with the poorer pasture conditions and supplementary
feeding is occurring in districts with limited pasture.
CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE:
North Region: Cane harvesting has commenced across the region. In the
Burdekin the closure of Pioneer Mill for repairs has reduced crushing
capacity by about 20 percent which may see a late finish to this years
harvest. Planting has finished and the crop is growing well. Planting
continues in the Herbert with ideal planting conditions of warm days and
cool nights. The harvest commenced mid June and CCS has been good.
Harvesting is underway in the Tully district with CCS at the start of
the season at its highest level since the 1984-85 season. Yields have
been fair to date.
Central Region: On the Central Highlands, the rain received in June
provided the opportunity to late plant wheat; these crops will require
follow up rain. Currently it is estimated that there is 200,000 to
250,000ha of wheat planted and 50,000 to 60,000 ha of chickpeas.
Cropping around the Highlands has varied depending on when and where the
rain fell and on farm preparedness to deep plant.. Given this, sub-soil
moisture profiles were generally good. Most of the early planting
occurred around Clermont / Kilcummin, however the June rain provided
more benefit to the crops around and to the south of Emerald.. Most
areas in the Dawson Callide received rain in early June and this enabled
further winter crop planting (wheat and chickpea), primarily in the
Dawson valley. The rain also provided useful short term benefits for
earlier planted crops. Crops sown earlier (early April) have flowered
and the grain is filling. In general, crops are moisture deficient. The
summer crop harvest (sorghum and corn) has finished, with good yields
reported.
South-East Region: Some corn is being harvested now as it dries off,
with yields reported to be average to better than average. The dry
conditions have been ideal for harvesting soybeans, with average yields.
Most sorghum crops have now been harvested with good yields and prices.
The peanut crop is continuing to be harvested under favourable weather
conditions, with yields estimated to be slightly lower than last year.
The very small area of winter crops that were planted early are now
suffering severe moisture stress. There have been limited further
plantings. Harvesting of the macadamia crop continued and harvesting of
the avocado variety Shepard is nearly finished in the Bundaberg area
with reports of lower than expected yields although of good quality.
Only modest crops of passionfruit were reported harvested from the
Sunshine Coast over autumn, due to adverse weather.
South Region: There was wide spread planting of wheat after the early
June rain. The traditional planting window is nearing the end, with a
wide range of yields likely. The region requires above median rainfall
during the next few weeks to improve the wheat outlook. The eastern and
central Downs have reported increasing rodent numbers.
RAINFALL (figure in brackets indicates average)
North Region: Babinda received 36mm (208) Cairns A/P 67mm (n/a), Ingham
16mm (43), Innisfail 62mm (n/a), Townsville 0.8mm (20), Tully n/a (n/a),
Bowen 0.9mm (n/a), Charters Towers 4mm (n/a), Georgetown 0.0mm (n/a) and
Normanton A/P n/a (n/a) and Proserpine A/P 15mm (n/a).
West Region: Birdsville n/a (8), Boulia 6mm (7), Windorah 35mm (12),
Cloncurry n/a (n/a), Mt Isa 0.0mm (3), Longreach 31mm (13), Muttaburra
13mm (13), Winton 4mm (11) and Charleville 39mm (19).
Central Region: Alpha recorded 18mm (23), Clermont 15mm (24), Springsure
38mm (24), Mackay 39mm (64), Yaamba 8mm (38), Biloela A/P n/a (n/a), Mt
Larcom 16mm (36), Gladstone 7mm (35), Theodore 6mm (28), and Yeppoon
21mm (n/a).
South-East Region: Eidsvold recorded 33mm (38), Gayndah 20mm (30),
Mundubbera 18mm (31), Esk 53mm (51), Kilkivan n/a (40), Kingaroy 23mm
(n/a), Nanango 36mm (34), Proston 29mm (31), and Beaudesert n/a (n/a).
On the coastal fringe Bundaberg received 44mm (54), Maryborough 68mm
(64), Nambour 258mm (n/a) and Tewantin 167 (n/a).
South Region: Clifton 27mm (32), Dalby 18mm (n/a), Goondiwindi 23mm
(n/a), Inglewood 53mm (28), Oakey 12mm (33), Pittsworth 23mm (37),
Stanthorpe 24mm (38), Toowoomba AP 46mm (n/a), Warwick 33mm (n/a), Roma
28mm (n/a), Miles 36mm (n/a), St George A/P 40mm (n/a) and Taroom 45mm
(29).
WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES
North Region: Surface water is readily available on the Tablelands,
South Johnstone and Bowen areas. In the Georgetown and Normanton
districts, water storages are low for this time of year. The Einasleigh
River, the upper sections of the Copperfield & Gilbert Rivers and a few
creeks are still flowing but the majority have dried to waterholes.
West Region: In the North West, underground and surface water supplies
are in sufficient quantities. Natural water holes do not contain large
amounts of water, if any. Most properties rely on underground water. In
the Central West, most water is from bores and this is in plentiful
supply, while surface water is reducing. There have been reports of
water shortages around Yaraka.
Central Region: In the Rockhampton district, many creeks are rapidly
drying up.
South-East Region: Supply of water varies markedly across the region.
Some properties have full dams whilst neighbouring areas still have
empty dams and watercourses. Significant general rain is still needed
to run creeks and fill dams.
South Region: Stream flow has been slowed as a result of limited
rainfall over the last few months. Water storages have fallen over
recent months though there was some recovery of aquifers over summer.
Information provided by:
REGIONAL SERVICES
Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454
National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)
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The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Environment & Resource Management and Primary Industries & Fisheries. |
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