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12 May 2009

OUTLOOK:

>From the Queensland Climate Change Centre of Excellence:

The winter outlook for Queensland shows a moderate shift in the odds towards drier conditions. Conditions are now Neutral and the La Nina is over. The La Nina weakened over autumn when the existing ENSO pattern traditionally breaks down. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) fell from plus 4.4 in April to minus 3.5 for May. Based on this shift in monthly SOI values the SOI is in a "Rapidly Falling" phase - Phase 3.

Further analysis indicates rainfall for much of Queensland is more likely to be close to the long term average (or in the middle third) rather than well below or well above the average. For much Queensland there is a 20 to 50 % chance of exceeding median rainfall. However, along the Great Dividing Range from Central Queensland to North Queensland and into the Gulf regions has a higher 50 to 70 % chance of exceeding their June to August median rainfall.

For more details look at the SOI phase maps on www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au

While these rainfall probabilities may still not be as high as some would like, this does not mean there will be no rain, just that there is a low chance of exceeding the median winter rainfall.

For example during June through to August Kingaroy and Roma have an 80% chance of getting at least 60 mm, St George has an 65 % chance of at least 60 mm, Jondaryan has an 85% chance of getting at least 40 mm, and Emerald a 75% chance of getting at least 40mm. When using any probability based forecast you should remember that the probability or percent chance of something occurring is just that - a probability. If there is a 30% chance of recording more than 100 mm then there is also a 70% chance of recording less than 100 mm i.e. 30-70; 70-30. It does not mean that you will get 30% more than 100 mm or 100 mm plus another 30%. For more on rainfall probabilities for your location refer to "Rainman StreamFlow".

STATE OVERVIEW:

Following the completion of the annual meetings and recommendations from the Local Drought Committees (LDCs), the Minister for Primary Industries and Fisheries has officially revoked from drought 24 former shires and/or regional council areas and 2 part regional council areas as at 30 May 2008. Currently the land area of Queensland officially drought declared under State processes is 48.8 percent. There are 18 Individually Droughted Properties (IDPs) in a further four shires. Parts of Queensland received significant rainfall in the last days of May, the results of which will be reported in the June Seasonal Conditions Report.

LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES:

North Region: Stock on the Tablelands and in the South Johnstone stock district are generally in good condition. Little rain has fallen in the past months and pastures are drying out on the Tablelands but pasture quantity and quality is good along the coastal area as it has recorded more rain than the Tablelands. Surface water is readily available. In the Georgetown district there is a good body of grass across the majority of the district and this is haying off as winter approaches. Cattle are in good condition but water storages are low for this time of year. Very little rainfall has been recorded across the Bowen stock district this month but both above and below ground water supplies are plentiful. Pastures are still plentiful and of good quality but are haying off in the non-sheltered areas. Stock numbers have been reduced significantly over the past few years and stock range in condition from good to excellent. There are no reports of supplementary feeding. In the Charters Towers district livestock is currently at slightly forward store condition including most breeders but there is still some supplementary feeding taking place to maintain the good body condition of animals. Breeder cows are in need of additional protein and some energy to assist in milk supply to calves. Generally pasture is in a very stable condition for this time in the season but is starting to hay off. All surface and bore supplies seem to be adequate. It has been dry in most of the Townsville district with areas south and west recording little to nothing but areas from Paluma north recording some useful falls. Stock condition is good throughout the district and feed and water supplies remain adequate.

West Region: There was no recorded rain in the North West for the month. Although there is a good body of feed in some parts of the area, the growing period ended earlier than usual this year, limiting the longevity of this year's feed. Although the Flinders grass in the Richmond shire was in good quantities in some areas it has hayed off significantly. The Mitchell grass has also dried out earlier than predicted due to very little to no rainfall recorded since February, resulting in some producers commencing dry season lick feeding earlier than in previous years. Stock condition is beginning to deteriorate and numbers have been further reduced in many areas. In the western areas of the Central West stock are losing condition and significant destocking is taking place. Areas to the east generally have had a good season with good quantity of feed available. Pastures across the region have hayed off significantly due to the lack of rainfall over the past few months. Stocking rates remain low in the South West and therefore the majority of livestock are holding condition. For those areas where pasture response is expected from flooding and/or rainfall, the stock should improve their condition with stock in the Bulloo/Barcoo flood out areas already in store to forward store condition. Restocking is occurring in the Murweh and Paroo shires for those who have had pasture response.

Central Region: With the continuing dry months, pastures across the region have hayed off. Improved pastures were showing some green but native pastures appeared dead. Rain at the end of the month may offer some improvement in districts where there is still colour in the grass. Animal condition is still strong although lactating breeders are losing weight and dry animals are gaining weight. Bullocks on improved pastures are gaining weight. Some increased sales are happening at the saleyards and there are large movements of stock into parts of the district. Little or no dry season feeding is occurring.

South-East Region: Stock condition remains good to excellent across the region. With cooler weather and deteriorating pasture quality it would be expected that stock will now start to lose condition unless supplemented. Sale cattle numbers continue at normal levels. There is still a good bulk of pasture and there are no reports of drought feeding. Pasture quality has diminished with the cooler weather and frosts. Rain at this time will spoil some dry feed but if there is significant continuing rain, winter legumes and forbs will provide beneficial grazing.

South Region: Very little rainfall has been recorded in the Roma district this month. However, there is still a good body of dry feed available with reduced quality. Stock remain in good condition and water supplies are adequate. In the southern portion of the Banana shire stock condition is still holding although no rain was recorded for the month. The area has experienced some cold conditions for autumn with pasture now having minimal nutrients. No useful rainfall has been recorded in the Oakey stock district in the past month. Pastures are extremely dry with very little nutritive value evident. There is a small body of pasture in some areas around Pittsworth and in the Millmerran district. In the Tara, Dalby and Chinchilla area no substantial falls of rain were recorded for May. Stock condition varies from fat in areas which received good summer rains to backward store in the Bunya Mountains foothills area. Cattle in the Tara district are generally store to forward store condition. A limited amount of supplementation has commenced in the Auburn, Tara and Bunya Mountains foothills. All the native pasture has hayed off and no winter herbage is available yet. Only light frost has been reported in some areas and this has not affected the quality of the hayed off pasture. On the Southern Downs patchy and very isolated falls were recorded around The Hermitage but generally very little significant rainfall has been recorded since early February. Breeders and stock are showing the effects of the quality and quantity of the feed that has deteriorated since March following frosts. A month of light frosts has had an effect on the quality of feed. There appears to be a very limited planting of winter cultivation feed at this time.

CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE:

North Region: The maize harvest on the Atherton Tablelands is progressing well with good yields reported. Pulling of the peanut crop continues but yields have been variable due to a number of factors including seasonal conditions early in the crop and rain at harvest. Planting of the potato crop has commenced. There are high levels of production reported in the Bowen district for the vegetable crop which includes tomatoes, capsicums, melons and sweet corn. Reports indicate the 2008 sugar crop is growing well and harvest will commence during the next month.

Central Region: On the Central Highlands the sorghum harvest is progressing with yields so far reported as reasonable to good. The last significant rain to fall was in mid February. Some wheat crops have been deep planted and dry planted. The dry planted crops are needing rain for germination. Some areas have also been planted to chickpeas, mostly by using deep plant techniques. There has been limited rainfall in the Dawson/Callide which has suited growers with summer crops to harvest, but not those looking for rain to start winter crop planting. The sorghum harvest is almost completed with reported yields of good to above average grain quality.

South-East Region: In the South Burnett overall producers with peanuts, sorghum, maize, soybeans, mung beans and navy beans have had a good season with above average grain prices and yields. Most summer crops have now been harvested with sunflowers currently being harvested. Yields on later planted crops showed a drop off in yield due to the dry finish. The sugar cane crop is growing well where producers have maintained irrigation supply on the Burnett coast. The majority of the peanut crop has been harvested with yield slightly down on last season and most of this year's soybean crop harvested with better than expected yields in some instances. Some producers are planting winter crops such as barley and chickpeas. The warm days and dry weather for much of May have been good for early strawberry production and some growers harvested limited volumes of the early varieties, Ruby Gem and Festival, during the second half of May. Harvesting of the macadamia crop continued with most growers completing their second or third harvest round by the end of the month. On the Sunshine Coast harvesting of the mid season avocado variety Hass began in May with a high volume of fruit moving through the market system.

South Region: The lack of planting rain to the end of May has meant the optimum time to plant wheat in the Maranoa and Western Downs has passed. However, there has been planting rain for large areas of the region in the early days of June. The dry past three months has ensured uninterrupted harvests for the areas of summer plantings of sorghum, corn, soybean and sunflowers.

RAINFALL (figure in brackets indicates average)

North Region: Babinda received n/a (427) Cairns A/P 67mm (n/a), Ingham 127mm (126), Innisfail 347mm (n/a), Townsville 0.8mm (40), Tully n/a (n/a), Bowen 0.0mm (n/a), Charters Towers 0.0mm (n/a), Georgetown 0.4mm (n/a) and Normanton A/P n/a (n/a) and Proserpine A/P 6mm (n/a).

West Region: Birdsville n/a (14), Boulia 0.0mm (14), Windorah 3mm (23), Cloncurry n/a (n/a), Mt Isa 0.0mm (17), Longreach 2mm (29), Muttaburra 3mm (22), Winton 12mm (23) and Charleville 0.4mm (41).

Central Region: Alpha recorded n/a (40), Clermont 13mm (47), Springsure 5mm (47), Mackay 55mm (115), Yaamba 35mm (63), Biloela A/P n/a (n/a), Mt Larcom 10mm (63), Gladstone 44mm (70), Theodore 23mm (47), and Yeppoon 68mm (n/a).

South-East Region: Eidsvold recorded 23mm (44), Gayndah 60mm (41), Mundubbera 47mm (40), Esk 25mm (59), Kilkivan n/a (49), Kingaroy 31mm (n/a), Nanango 37mm (478), Proston 20mm (45), and Beaudesert n/a (n/a). On the coastal fringe Bundaberg received 159mm (69), Maryborough 197mm (78), Nambour 154mm (n/a) and Tewantin 199 (n/a).

South Region: Clifton 8mm (48), Dalby 8mm (n/a), Goondiwindi 4mm (n/a), Inglewood n/a (43), Oakey 6mm (45), Pittsworth n/a (44), Stanthorpe 30mm (52), Toowoomba AP 7mm (n/a), Warwick 24mm (n/a), Roma 7mm (n/a), Miles 21mm (n/a), St George A/P 15mm (n/a) and Taroom 30mm (42).

WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES

North Region: The Einasleigh River and the upper sections of the Copperfield and Gilbert Rivers are still flowing. Across the Georgetown district there are still a few creeks flowing but the majority have dried back to waterholes.

West Region: In the North West underground and surface water supplies are in sufficient quantities. Natural water holes do not contain large amounts of water, if any. Most water is from bores in the Central West and this is in plentiful supply. Surface water is reducing. There have been reports of water shortages around Yaraka. Water supplies are good in the South West as there is a good supply from the Great Artesian Basin.

Central Region: There are reports of deteriorating surface and underground water supplies in the Biloela area.

South-East Region: Supply of water varies markedly across the region. Some properties have full dams whilst neighbouring areas still have empty dams and watercourses. Significant general rain is still needed to run creeks and fill dams.

South Region: Stream flow has been slowed as a result of limited rainfall over the last two months. Water storages have fallen over recent months although there was some recovery of aquifers over summer.

Information provided by:
REGIONAL SERVICES

Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454

National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)

The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Environment & Resource Management and Primary Industries & Fisheries.