SEASONAL CONDITIONS AS AT 31 OCTOBER 2008
OUTLOOK:
>From the Queensland Climate Change Centre of Excellence:
The monthly Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) value remained in
moderately strong positive values with a thirty day average of plus 13.7
in September followed by plus 14.2 during October. This SOI indicates a
"Consistently Positive" phase (Phase 2) for October. The thirty day
average of the SOI as of the 4th of November was plus 14.8.
Based a consistently positive October phase of the SOI and historical
rainfall data, there is a 50 to 70% chance of getting at least median
rainfall throughout Queensland during November to January.
A more detailed analysis indicates that rainfall is likely to be above
average (upper third) rather than average or well below average (middle
to lower third).
According to the latest ENSO wrap up from the Bureau of Meteorology
(www.bom.gov.au) sea surface temperatures (SST) in the Pacific Ocean are
in a neutral pattern, trade winds remain close to or slightly above
average and cloudiness near the international date-line is near normal.
Therefore SST values are most likely to remain in a neutral climate
pattern with a low risk of a return to El Nino conditions over summer
2008 - 2009.
STATE DROUGHT DECLARATIONS:
As at 31 October 2008, 54.3 percent of the land area of Queensland is
drought declared under State processes. There are also nine
Individually Droughted Properties (IDPs) in a further three areas.
LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES:
North Region: Stock across the Tablelands appear to be in good
condition. Supplementary feeding is ongoing with hay and dry lick being
provided. Rye grass pastures are being irrigated and stripped grazed.
The area is generally looking dry but surface water is readily
available. In the South Johnstone Stock District stock are in good
condition. Pasture is looking good along the coastline despite low
rainfall this month. There is plenty of surface water available.
Generally breeders in the Normanton Stock District are improving since
the weaners were taken off in the last mustering round for the year.
Pasture has responded to the patchy rainfall. Feed is very dry at
present with most producers waiting for early rain. Generally
properties are continuing to feed with licks and supplements. In the
Charters Towers Stock District all classes are holding condition for
this time of year. Dry season supplementation of breeders will continue
until there is a break in the season. The days have really started to
heat up with hot winds placing increased demands on water supplies.
Both surface and underground supplies appear adequate at this stage.
Minimal rainfall was recorded in the Townsville Stock District with the
area holding in places but generally declining. Recent warm weather
with strong easterly winds has dried out top cover in the immediate
Townsville district. Condition of all classes of stock is dropping for
this time of year. As expected breeders with big calves are most
affected as pasture quantity, quality and protein levels decline. Many
producers have instigated a supplementary feeding program to assist.
Both surface and underground water supply is adequate at this stage.
West Region: Areas that have continued to miss out on rain for several
years have little or no pasture. Winton, Kynuna, Julia Creek west to
Boulia, Camooweal, Bedourie, Urandangie as well as patches south of
Longreach, Jundah and Windorah are the worst of these areas. For most
producers in the drier areas there is still little bulk in the pasture.
Areas to the east of the region generally had plenty of bulk however
pasture quality is poorer and greater supplementation was required
during winter than otherwise would be the case. The area where there
was some relief rain around Quilpie produced herbage that is rapidly
haying off in the warmer weather. Stock condition is entirely in line
with pasture conditions. Most of the channel country is now destocked
or running very low numbers due to poor pasture availability. Stock
being moved out of the channel country tend to be in score 2 to 4
condition. Stock to the north and west of the region are losing
condition and requiring supplementation where possible. In the east of
the region stock are generally in strong to excellent condition score 3
and above.
Central Region: Stock are generally in fair to good condition across
the region. Breeders are calving in most districts. Livestock
condition in the Clermont area is very good and pastures are also in
very good condition. Finished stock are being turned off the country
north of Clermont. Rainfall early in the month in the Rockhampton area
started a reasonable shoot in many of the pastures but drying winds have
reduced the benefits in some areas. Overall stock are in good condition
with calving widespread. Pastures in the hinterland from Mackay are in
good condition with the exception of some areas bordering the coastal
ranges. The Mackay coast is extremely dry with numerous properties
devoid of pasture. Widespread supplementation commenced in this area
later this year and stock movements are normal for this time of year.
South-East Region: With low stock numbers on most properties the
condition of cattle generally remains good to excellent. Sale cattle
numbers continue at normal levels. There is still a fair bulk of
pasture available and there is some normal supplementary feeding of
stock occurring. There is no known full drought feeding of stock.
Pasture quality has suffered with generally dry weather and hot
conditions this month.
South Region: Stock generally have maintained their body condition
throughout the winter months. The better conditioned animals are found
in the western areas of the region where the increased rainfall has
produced a better body of feed. The response on the Darling Downs has
been limited due to the below average rainfall. In the Stanthorpe and
Inglewood areas the pasture biomass is low after a fairly dry winter
with severe frosts. The good start in the Maranoa and Balonne has
continued with better rainfall over this area. Taroom area again
recorded good falls which have delivered further good pasture response.
There are no reports of widespread handfeeding at this stage. However
there are reports of supplementary feeding in the Stanthorpe area.
CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE:
North Region: Harvesting of legume seed, potatoes and wheat is
occurring on the Tablelands. Yields have generally been reasonable.
Ground preparation for summer crops has commenced. The cropping season
in the Bowen district has generally finished with a few late crops of
melons and eggplants still going. In the wet tropics banana production
is going well with the normal seasonal variations. There have been long
periods of high supply this month and prices have reflected that.
Growers have been planting new blocks of bananas and paw paws after rain
delays last month. Growing conditions have been ideal for all crops.
The Tablelands sugarcane harvest is entering its final stages and will
finish in the first week of November. The crop in the Herbert district
has been cutting above estimate and the predicted harvest finish date is
now into early December.
Central Region: There was widespread rainfall across the Dawson Callide
during the month which interrupted winter crop harvest in some areas.
There have been mixed reports for the grain quality for wheat. Most
early crops have been downgraded either due to frost damage, sprouting
or other quality issues. Later sown crops have fared better with good
yields and high quality being reported. Chickpea crops have generally
yielded very well. A number of growers have taken the opportunity to
sow spring crops of sorghum, mungbeans and corn on the back of rainfall
in August and September and the rainfall during October has been very
useful. Harvest is underway in the Central Highlands. Chickpeas have
performed better than expected in many cases and wheat yields and
quality are variable.
South-East Region: In the South Burnett, the dry month has been
beneficial for those harvesting winter crops. Grain moisture levels have
been low in most cases negating the need for drying of the grain.
Yields if 1 tonne/acre of wheat and barley have been common. There are
large areas of fallow land ready for the summer cropping season.
Strawberry prices picked up a little in October and some growers
continued harvesting. The MRS bred variety Ruby Gem has been reported
by some growers to have provided good quality fruit during this late
harvest period.
South Region: There has been a delayed finish to the season with rain
early in the month which allowed crops to continue to grow. However the
warm, dry finish to the month enabled wheat and barley to mature. On
the Western Downs, the August and September rainfall boosted crop
potential. Irrigated wheat crops in the lower Balonne irrigation area
have produced high yielding crops. There are reports of good yielding
barley crops on the northern and eastern Downs and sorghum and corn
crops planted on the eastern Downs is waiting for further rainfall.
There are average or greater soil moisture conditions in the Maranoa.
Stone fruit growers will commence harvest in early November.
RAINFALL (figure in brackets indicates average)
North Region: Babinda received 144mm (109) Cairns A/P 95mm (n/a),
Ingham 53mm (47), Innisfail 67mm (n/a), Townsville 4mm (25), Tully n/a
(n/a), Bowen 4mm (n/a), Charters Towers 0.0mm (n/a), Georgetown 8mm
(n/a) and Normanton A/P n/a (n/a) and Proserpine A/P 16mm (n/a).
West Region: Birdsville n/a (12), Boulia 0.4mm (13), Windorah 6mm (17),
Cloncurry n/a (n/a), Mt Isa 6mm (20), Longreach 24mm (18), Muttaburra
10mm (22), Winton 0.0mm (16) and Charleville 13mm (31).
Central Region: Alpha recorded 27mm (34), Clermont 12mm (36), Springsure
34mm (42), Mackay 13mm (39), Yaamba 34mm (42), Biloela A/P n/a (n/a), Mt
Larcom 31mm (59), Gladstone 35mm (61), Theodore 57 (64), and Yeppoon
34mm (n/a).
South-East Region: Eidsvold recorded 30mm (66), Gayndah 20mm (62),
Mundubbera 36mm (71), Esk 58mm (82), Kilkivan n/a (75), Kingaroy 22mm
(n/a), Nanango 22mm (79), Proston 8mm (70), and Beaudesert n/a (n/a).
On the coastal fringe Bundaberg received 40mm (67), Maryborough 20mm
(75), Nambour 37mm (n/a) and Tewantin 120mm (n/a).
South Region: Clifton 17mm (67), Dalby 22mm (n/a), Goondiwindi 14mm
(n/a), Inglewood 3mm (58), Oakey 15mm (61), Pittsworth 19mm (67),
Stanthorpe 56mm (76), Toowoomba AP 35mm (n/a), Warwick 17mm (n/a), Roma
16mm (n/a), Miles 45mm (n/a), St George A/P 20mm (n/a) and Taroom 58mm
(60).
WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES
North Region: The Norman, Gilbert, Flinders & Bynoes rivers have
dropped since the last rains in July. In Burketown, the Albert River
has slowed and the water is becoming salty. In the Burke Shire water
supplies are low and underground supplies are in full use. The regions
major water storages of Tinaroo and Burdekin dams are at 74% and 90%
respectively.
West Region: Generally adequate for those with good bore water. Some
producers relying on dams and surface water in the central and western
areas of the region have declining reserves with some semi permanent
waterholes in the Georgina and Diamantina systems now dry. Most
rainfall events in the spring so far have been insufficient to run water
for dams.
Central Region: Callide Dam is 6% capacity while Kinchant is 87% and
Fairbairn 82%.
South-East Region: The warmer than average temperatures are putting
increasing pressure on water supplies. There are still many major dams
and watercourses that need significant rain for replenishment.
South Region: Water supplies are declining but are adequate at present
and should hold for a few months.
Information provided by:
REGIONAL SERVICES
Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454
National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)
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The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Environment & Resource Management and Primary Industries & Fisheries. |
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