SEASONAL CONDITIONS AS AT 30 SEPTEMBER 2008
OUTLOOK:
>From the Queensland Climate Change Centre of Excellence:
A neutral El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) pattern is now firmly
established and is very likely to continue throughout summer 2008 -
2009. There is only a relatively minor possibility of an El Nino
developing.
The spring-summer outlook for Queensland shows a marginal shift in the
odds towards wetter conditions as a result of the Southern Oscillation
Index (SOI) remaining positive, shifting from plus 8.0 in August to plus
13.7 during September. Based on the shift in monthly SOI values the SOI
is in a "Consistently Positive" phase - Phase 2.
Based on this SOI Phase and historical rainfall records much of
Queensland has a 50 to 70 % chance of exceeding median rainfall October
through December. Areas in the north and north-east of the state have a
higher 70 to 90% chance of exceeding median rainfall October through
December.
Further analysis indicates that the October to December rainfall is
likely to be above average (upper third) rather than average or below
average (lower to middle thirds). This represents a shift in the odds
towards wetter conditions compared with last month's outlook.
STATE DROUGHT DECLARATIONS:
As at 30 September 2008, 54.3 percent of the land area of Queensland is
drought declared under State processes. There are also nine
Individually Droughted Properties (IDPs) in a further three areas.
LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES:
North Region: Above average rainfall was recorded across the region
this month but with low historical averages for September the amount of
rain recorded was generally minimal. Pastures remain in very good
condition across the extensive grazing areas as a result of a good wet
season and rain over winter. Stock across the Tablelands appear to be
in good condition and some supplementary feeding is taking place. Grass
is still looking dry but recent rain has sparked growth. Surface water
is readily available. In the South Johnstone stock district pasture is
in good condition and responding to recent rain. Stock are in good
condition. There is plenty of surface water available. Generally stock
are in good condition in the Normanton stock district with old cows with
big weaners in store condition. Pasture response has been patchy
following patchy rainfall. Feed is very dry at present with producers
continuing to feed licks and supplement. In the Charters Towers
district all classes of stock are holding condition for this time of
year. Breeders with weaner calves are slipping as protein levels and
body condition drops but most producers have instigated a supplementary
feeding program to assist. Pasture quality and quantity has slipped
slightly as average daily temperatures increase combined with very
little to no moisture. Both surface and underground water supplies are
adequate. With minimal rainfall recorded in the Townsville district,
the area is holding in places but generally declining. Recent warm
weather with strong easterly winds has dried out top cover in the
immediate Townsville district and condition of all classes of stock is
dropping for this time of year. Breeders with weaner calves are most
affected as pasture quantity, quality and protein levels decline.
Supplementary feeding is taking place. Surface and underground water
supplies are adequate.
West Region: Following a dry September in the Flinders shire the
Mitchell Grass Downs urgently need rain. Stock are holding condition at
present although cows with calves are generally in light condition.
Supplementary feeding is taking place. The surface water situation is
receding fast which is normal for this time of year. There has been
little change in conditions in the Mt Isa and Boulia areas with some
very light patchy showers recorded during the month but no significant
or useful rainfall. High temperatures and hot dry winds have had a
detrimental effect on the ground cover which is mainly clumps and stalks
and contains no bulk. Stock are generally losing condition in view of
protein deficiency in pastures, even though stocking rates on many
properties are very low. Most producers rely on bores and there have
been no reports of water issues. Storm rain early in the month in the
Blackall/Tambo area has resulted in very good pasture response,
particularly from buffel grass. There are good supplies of water in the
district and stock are reported to be in very good condition.
Central Region: The majority of the region's pastures are carrying a
hint of green. In the Clermont district stock are in excellent condition
with reports of very good pasture quality and quantity, particularly in
the northern areas. Rainfall early in the month of up to 25mm started a
reasonable shoot in many of the pastures in the Rockhampton district,
although wind and higher temperatures towards the end of the month have
been detrimental to this response. Some fireweed has been reported but
far less than last year. In the Mackay district stock are reported to
be in excellent condition in the hinterland but variable in coastal
areas with cattle on low fertility soils in very low condition. The
majority of hinterland pastures are greening up but coastal pastures are
either tall, fibrous and/or of low nutritional value. A high percentage
of breeders are heavily pregnant or in early lactation which is adding
to nutritional under supply, with breeders with large calves also
affected. Some drought feeding is taking place in coastal areas.
South-East Region: The condition of cattle on properties which have low
stock numbers remains good to excellent. Sale cattle numbers continue
at normal levels. Pasture quality has suffered with the heavy frosts
and higher than average temperatures. There has been enough heat to
grow pasture but moisture is lacking. There is some normal
supplementary feeding of stock taking place but no known full drought
feeding of stock occurring.
South Region: There was widespread rainfall across the region during
the month with the best falls generally to the south and west. Stock
are in good condition in the Roma district and pastures have responded
to rainfall, with the body of old dry grass greening up. Water supplies
are reported to be adequate. In the Southern Downs area breeders with
calves at foot are in light condition and are being supplemented in some
areas. With a harsh August period of frosts followed by early spring
rainfall there was a good response to herbage germination. However
conditions in the past few weeks have all but depleted this response and
quality and quantity of natural pasture is reasonably low. There are no
reports of water being carted to date this season and surface water is
holding to about 50 percent capacity. Early storm rain has been
reported over most of the Dalby district resulting in steady pasture
growth. Stock are in store to fat condition and improving. In the
Toowoomba district water supplies are holding and stock are in good
condition overall. Pasture is short and green. In the Wandoan district
pastures are coming away well after the rain and stock are generally in
good condition and holding. The majority of properties in the southern
Banana Regional Council area received good rainfall during the month.
Stock condition is holding very well and there is very good ground
coverage with mostly more grass than weeds for the majority of the area.
However high temperatures have burnt off some of the available pasture.
Good but patchy rain was recorded in the Balonne shire during the month.
Stock are generally in good condition. The Mitchell grass has shot in
most areas and there is a good coverage of clover. Water supplies are
mostly piped from bores and are reported as adequate.
CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE:
North Region: Harvesting of legume seed, potatoes and wheat is
occurring on the Tablelands with reasonable yields reported. Ground
preparation for summer crops has commenced. Horticulture production
slowed in the Bowen district this month with the cooler conditions. In
the wet tropics banana production has been good but quality has been
affected due to cooler conditions. Paw paws are in low supply due to
climatic conditions affecting growth earlier in the season. The
Tablelands sugar cane harvest is entering its final stages. Harvesting
is progressing well in the Tully district and over half the crop in the
Burdekin has been crushed.
Central Region: Harvest has commenced on the Central Highlands but the
bulk of the crop will be three to four weeks from starting. There has
been a report of poor quality with some black point and sprouted grain
from an earlier planted wheat crop which was looking to be above average
prior to severe frost damage occurring in early August. Some chickpea
crops have recovered extremely well from frost damage and the late rain
has been beneficial for frost damaged crops that have set new flowers.
In the Dawson Callide many areas recorded above average rainfall early
in the month but with rising temperatures later in the month many of the
crops are quickly drying out. The rainfall has been very useful for
later planted crops, particularly chickpeas that lost flowers due to
heavy frosts in August. These crops have reset more flowers so yield
potential should be restored. Cereal crops have benefited from the
rain. Wheat crop harvesting started during the month with a number of
early planted crops providing average to above average yields.
South-East Region: Despite rainfall during the month most winter crops
are now fully in head and starting to dry off. The hot dry conditions
have affected yield potential and very late planted wheat crops need
good rain to promote a better yield. There are large areas of fallow
land being prepared for the summer cropping season with the possibility
for planting of corn and sorghum after the next significant rainfall
event. On the Burnett Coast, the sugar cane harvest has had three
delays due to wet weather. Some of the earlier harvested cane paddocks
have been tilled in preparation for peanut plant and some farmers will
plant in early October in an attempt to have the peanuts harvested in
time for them to plant cane in March. Harvesting of low chill
stonefruit began in early September and crops and early prices have been
reported to be good. Cool weather in August slowed down fruit
development delaying harvest slightly. Most growers will stop
harvesting strawberries during October and the macadamia harvest
continued during September and was completed on most farms.
South Region: Frosts in August slowed crop production and caused
substantial damage to chickpea crops on the Downs, however there has
been some recovery during September due to favourable growing
conditions. There was some beneficial rain during late August/early
September on the Western Downs which has assisted soil moisture and
plant growth. There are reports of good wheat crops at this stage in
the Taroom, Miles, Meandarra and Condamine areas. Fungal diseases and
rodents have lowered yield potential of crops in some areas.
RAINFALL (figure in brackets indicates average)
North Region: Babinda received 193mm (122) Cairns A/P 40mm (33), Ingham
68mm (33), Innisfail 186mm (n/a), Townsville 0.6mm (10), Tully n/a
(n/a), Bowen 13mm (n/a), Charters Towers 11mm (n/a), Georgetown 0.5mm
(n/a) and Normanton A/P n/a (n/a) and Proserpine A/P 19mm (n/a).
West Region: Birdsville n/a (4), Boulia 12mm (6), Windorah 10mm (9),
Cloncurry n/a (n/a), Mt Isa 5mm (8), Longreach 70mm (9), Muttaburra 38mm
(10), Winton 34mm (7) and Charleville 87mm (21).
Central Region: Alpha recorded 66mm (18), Clermont 26mm (15), Springsure
52mm (26), Mackay 11mm (15), Yaamba 18mm (24), Biloela A/P n/a (n/a), Mt
Larcom 12mm (22), Gladstone 23mm (24), Theodore 79mm (28), and Yeppoon
32mm (n/a).
South-East Region: Eidsvold recorded 17mm (29), Gayndah 11mm (30),
Mundubbera 27mm (29), Esk 92mm (37), Kilkivan n/a (31), Kingaroy 20mm
(n/a), Nanango 44mm (33), Proston 20mm (31), and Beaudesert n/a (n/a).
On the coastal fringe Bundaberg received 41mm (30), Maryborough 29mm
(29), Nambour 125mm (n/a) and Tewantin 118mm (n/a).
South Region: Clifton 37mm (38), Dalby 51mm (n/a), Goondiwindi 72mm
(n/a), Inglewood 45mm (41), Oakey 41mm (32), Pittsworth 55mm (33),
Stanthorpe 48mm (46), Toowoomba AP 32mm (n/a), Warwick 48mm (n/a), Roma
90mm (n/a), Miles 59mm (n/a), St George A/P 80mm (n/a) and Taroom 38mm
(28).
WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES
North Region: The region's major water storages of Tinaroo and Burdekin
dams are at 78% and 96% respectively.
West Region: There have been no reported water issues.
Central Region: Callide Dam is at 6% capacity while Fairbairn is at 85%
and Kinchant 94%.
South-East Region: The warmer than average temperatures are putting
increasing pressure on water supplies. There are still many major dams
and watercourses that need significant rain for replenishment. Bjelke
Petersen Dam is at 12% capacity and Moogerah 39%.
South Region: Stream flow has slowed as a result of limited runoff and
water storages have steadily fallen over recent months. There has been
little recovery of aquifers since summer. Coolmunda Dam is at 66%
capacity.
Information provided by:
REGIONAL SERVICES
Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454
National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)
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The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Environment & Resource Management and Primary Industries & Fisheries. |
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