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12 May 2009

OUTLOOK:

>From the Queensland Climate Change Centre of Excellence (QCCCE):

The monthly value of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has risen in value from minus 1.3 for March to plus 8.0 for April placing the SOI in a Rapidly Rising phase. Based on historical rainfall records and a Rapidly Rising SOI phase at the end of April, there is a reasonable 60 to 80% chance of getting above median rainfall across parts of north-west, central, south and south-east Queensland during May to July. Across the rest of the state there is a 40 to 60% chance of getting above median rainfall for May through to the end of July.

It will be interesting to see if these positive values are maintained over coming months. If the 30 day average of the SOI were to fall into strongly negative values and remain there through to the end of autumn, it would be a warning sign for a likely dry winter/spring. You can receive a text message with the latest SOI values sent to your mobile phone. To subscribe to this free service, call (07) 4688 1459. When using a climate forecast you should remember that the probability or percent chance of something occurring is just that - a probability. For example if there is a 70% chance of recording more than 100 mm there is also a 30% chance of recording less than 100 mm. i.e. 70-30; 30-70. It does not mean that you will get 70% more than 100 mm or 100 mm plus another 70%.

For those who like to follow the relationship between the SOI and rainfall patterns in more detail, have a look at what happened in your area during May to July in the following years since 1950 that have had a Rapidly Rising SOI phase at the end of March: 1954, 1961, 1984, 1985, 1989, 1990 and 1999. Autumn is the key time for the establishment of climate patterns such as El Nino and La Nina. Therefore QCCCE climate staff will continue to closely monitor what happens over the next few months. Updates on the development of these climate patterns can be found at www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au or www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso or www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

STATE DROUGHT DECLARATIONS:

As at 21 April 2009, 35 percent of the land area of Queensland is drought declared under State processes.

The Minister for Primary Industries, Fisheries and Rural and Regional Queensland has revoked the following local government areas from drought status:

* Boulia, north of the Kennedy Development Road and Donohue Highway, effective 1 March 2009. * McKinlay and Richmond, south of the Flinders Highway, effective 1 April 2009. * Longreach - bounded by the Landsborough Highway from the eastern boundary of the Longreach Regional Council to Longreach and from Longreach to the northern boundary of the Regional Council along the Winton Stock Route adjacent to Maneroo Creek, effective 17 April 2009. * Winton, Gympie, South Burnett, Lockyer Valley, Ipswich, Somerset, North Burnett, Mt Isa, Cloncurry, Balonne, Southern Downs, Central Highlands north of the Capricorn Highway, all effective 21 April 2009.

RAINFALL AND TEMPERATURES: (figure in brackets indicates average)

North Region:

Following a dry March there were some reasonable falls of rain recorded across the region. In southern parts around Townsville and into the gulf districts rainfall totals were generally above average while along the wet tropical coast and onto the Tablelands falls generally tended to be below average. Rainfall was very beneficial in the grazing areas as soil moisture levels were falling and it gave pastures a boost going into the dry season. Temperature recordings were normal for April.

Babinda received 344mm (571), Cairns A/P 210mm (n/a), Ingham 282mm (219), Innisfail 262mm (n/a), Townsville 52mm (61), Bowen 102mm (n/a), Charters Towers 65mm (n/a), Georgetown 19mm (n/a) and Normanton A/P n/a (n/a) and Proserpine A/P 150mm (n/a).

West Region:

April rainfall was patchy apart from in the Isisford, Blackall, Tambo and Augathella areas where rainfall was more general. Heavy rain in the Adavale area caused some flooding in the Bulloo River resulting in minor beneficial flooding lower in the system.

Birdsville n/a (12), Boulia 2mm (14), Windorah 10mm (22), Cloncurry n/a (n/a), Mt Isa 7mm (16), Longreach 31mm (41), Muttaburra 3mm (37), Winton 21mm (33) and Charleville 50mm (34).

Central Region:

Rainfall for April across the Central Highlands was variable but valuable for crop growers where it did fall. Most areas in the Dawson Callide recorded some rain over the Easter period but generally rainfall has been variable during the month. Maximum temperatures were around average with minimums at or below average and falling. There were falls of between 50mm and 90mm recorded over coastal parts of the Bowen/Mackay districts extending inland over the Easter weekend. Temperatures have been high but not above average for this time of year. Rockhampton recorded 24mm and this was representative through the district. Temperatures have remained high throughout the month until towards the end of the month when overnight minimums generally fell to normal readings.

Alpha recorded 77mm (27), Clermont 59mm (43), Springsure 65mm (46), Mackay 188mm (154), Yaamba 30mm (53), Biloela A/P n/a (n/a), Mt Larcom 26mm (56), Gladstone 81mm (54), Theodore 20mm (49), and Yeppoon 114mm (n/a).

South-East Region:

Rainfall was average for most districts during the month except for the Sunshine Coast area which received record rainfalls and floods in local watercourses early in the month.

Eidsvold recorded 49mm (50), Gayndah 50mm (47), Mundubbera 57mm (42), Esk 124mm (73), Kilkivan n/a (66), Kingaroy 48mm (n/a), Nanango 53mm (57), Proston 73mm (52), and Beaudesert n/a (n/a). On the coastal fringe Bundaberg received 112mm (70), Maryborough 58mm (87), Nambour 470mm (n/a) and Tewantin 342mm (n/a).

South Region:

Rainfall throughout the region was mostly within historical averages.

Clifton recorded 45mm (52), Dalby 52mm (n/a), Goondiwindi 20mm (n/a), Inglewood 60mm (48), Oakey 52mm (47), Pittsworth 68mm (47), Stanthorpe 41mm (53), Toowoomba AP 34mm (n/a), Warwick 57mm (n/a), Roma 26mm (n/a), Miles 35mm (n/a), St George A/P 23mm (n/a) and Taroom 60mm (41).

LIVESTOCK, PASTURES AND WATER:

North Region: Livestock and pastures are in very good condition after a very good wet season. The only exceptions are those pastures affected by flood inundation, generally in the gulf area around Normanton. This has resulted in reduced available feed and animals are reflecting the drop in available nutrition. Producers have commenced mustering and weaning in these areas to try to maintain cow body condition going into the dry season. The region's major water storages of Tinaroo and Burdekin dams received good inflows this year and are both at 100 percent capacity. On farm storages have all been replenished and many small creeks and streams continue to run fresh water.

West Region: In the north west pastures have grown well with the exception of those subject to flooding, particularly with deep water for a significant period of time. Generally pasture quality and quantity are very good and those areas that received reasonable April rain have pasture response from both annuals and perennials. Button grass has only responded in some areas that had rain. Stock condition is generally above score 3. In the central west pasture conditions generally grade from good in the north east to poor in the south west. There is a general gradation from perennial predominance to the north and east to higher annual pasture composition to the south and west in line with a combination of early storms for the summer and the overall total rainfall. Stock in the area are generally in improving condition as a result of the patchy rain providing some feed on most places. In the south west the general April rain was mainly in the area north of Charleville and Quilpie. The eastern part of the area generally has good standover feed although the quality has been affected by the hot dry temperatures late in the summer. Mulga continues to die in particularly low rainfall areas. Some flooding in the west through the channel country rivers will provide only temporary relief along the river frontage and the April runs in the Bulloo River are likely to have little effect on carrying capacity as the flooding has been mainly confined to the channels. Stock condition is strongly aligned to the pasture quality and quantity available and condition ranges from 1 to 4.

Water availability is high in the north although there are reports of damage to dams and related watering infrastructure during the summer season. South of the Winton to Boulia road some producers relying on dams are starting to experience problems as the storms have only provided sporadic dam replenishment.

Central Region: Across most of the Central Highlands pasture growth during early summer was good but with no rain in March and variable and patchy rain in April, pasture quality and quantity reflect the shorter growing season. Buffel pastures are generally short and hayed off but with minimal seed production and dilution the quality is generally good. Bullocks on these pastures are in very good condition. Native pastures on downs soils and box and ironbark woodlands are mature, seeded and generally low in quality. Cows, especially those with larger calves at foot, are starting to fall in condition. Overall pasture condition is patchy and ranges from fair to good. Surface water is generally in good to excellent supply except for the Bauhinia area. There is a good quality and quantity or pastures in the Dawson Callide for this time of year. This is on the back of good rainfall in mid February and a light top-up in April. However there are some reports that the pasture does not have the body it should have for this time of year. On-farm storages and dams are quite low in many areas, however where storms have passed storages are full or near full. Underground water supplies in the Callide are maintaining the slow decline and some producers are facing limited pumping capacity. In the Bowen Mackay districts pasture quality and quantity is high. The Easter rain has extended the growing season and the warm weather has ensured that pastures will continue to grow. Cattle range in condition from good to excellent. Both above and below ground water supplies are plentiful. Pastures are in reasonable condition, although rapidly deteriorating with little surface moisture in the Rockhampton district. Native grasses have seeded and improved grasses are drying off quickly. Cattle are generally in good condition and weaning at this time of year will conserve body condition of breeders. Surface water is drying back rapidly and there has been little recharge of aquifers during the wet season. Patchy rainfall has left many dams almost dry.

South-East Region: Livestock condition is good to excellent throughout the region. Stock movements to sale have been average for this time of year. Pastures have generally dried off across the region. Pastures in the Sunshine Coast area which received the record rainfall earlier in the month have dried off markedly. Water supplies away from the coast are still a major issue.

South Region: Pastures benefitted from early summer rainfall, however there has been insufficient rainfall in the new year in many areas to generate good pasture growth. On farm water storages are average to below within the region because of limited runoff rain this summer. Stock numbers generally limited the need for drought feeding but many areas may not have sufficient pasture to carry over the winter period.

CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE:

North Region: On the Tablelands harvesting of Rhodes grass will commence soon. Legume crops are in the ground and growing well. Maize crops are maturing but after a dry five to six week period will need moisture soon to assure reasonable yields. Warm, sunny and dry conditions have allowed some improvement in paw paw crops suffering the effects of very wet conditions. In the sugarcane areas growers have been planting this month. There were some rain delays, particularly around the Easter period and in the Burdekin some crops that were planted during this time have had poor strikes as the young plant cane was affected by too much moisture after wetter than normal conditions.

West Region: Some opportunity sorghum cropping has been observed although generally there is little cropping activity across the region. Northern parts with irrigation are starting to prepare for the winter cropping season or are making hay while conditions are right.

Central Region: The April rain in the Central Highlands has been valuable for many sorghum growers. Although rainfall in May and June will determine the area planted to wheat and chickpeas, planting has started in many areas into either good or marginal moisture depending how much rain was recorded. Summer crop harvest is well progressed in the Dawson Callide with yields generally at or above average for both sorghum and bean crops, depending on in-crop rain during the season. A limited number of growers have commenced planting winter crops on the back of the Easter rain but due to the patchy nature of the storm rainfall events, this is generally limited to those with summer fallow country and under sufficient planting rain. All horticulture growers are in full production for the 2009 season in the Bowen Mackay area. The extremely wet conditions early in the new year delayed early plantings and compressed the start of the season.

South-East Region: After a promising summer crop start for the South Burnett, dry weather in March compromised possible crop yields. Most crops were at the critical grain filling stage when the rain stopped and crops began to suffer. Navy bean yields have been reduced by the dry finish with harvesting occurring during April. Rain in early April slowed the harvest of peanuts. The soybean harvest is continuing. Soybean crops in the Burnett coastal area are reported to be looking very good. Harvesting of the hass variety of avocados has started in Bundaberg and will begin on the Sunshine Coast in May. Strawberry planting was completed in early April on most farms. Harvesting of macadamia nuts is behind schedule on most farms in the Sunshine Coast/Wolvi areas because of the extremely wet weather in the first half of April preventing machinery use in the orchards. The dry second half of the month has allowed harvesting to recommence. Harvesting of the persimmon crop continued in April with the wet weather blemishing a high percentage of fruit on some farms.

South Region: Early sorghum crops have yielded average or better and there have been some very good yields recorded in parts of the eastern Darling Downs. However in many areas patchy storm rains have resulted in poor to fair sorghum yields. The cotton season is reported as reasonable in parts of southern Queensland. Within the Balonne region the irrigated crop exceeded last years crop and producers on the Darling Downs are reporting crops of reasonable yields. Dryland harvest this month has been average. The grape harvest was good with good rainfall followed by dry weather producing good quality grapes. Apple producers have recorded a reasonable season.

Enquiries to: Ms Ros Moloney Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001 Telephone: 3239 3181 Email: ros.moloney@dpi.qld.gov.au

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Information provided by:
REGIONAL SERVICES

Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454

National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)

The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Environment & Resource Management and Primary Industries & Fisheries.