SEASONAL CONDITIONS AS AT 31 AUGUST 2009
OUTLOOK:
>From the Queensland Climate Change Centre of Excellence (QCCCE):
Based on the shift in the monthly value of the Southern Oscillation
Index (SOI) from plus 2.0 for July to minus 3.9 for August, the SOI is
in a "Consistently Near Zero" phase.
An analysis of a Consistently Near Zero SOI phase at the end of August
indicates a 30 to 50% chance of getting above the long term median
rainfall throughout northern, central and western Queensland during
September to November. Throughout the south east quarter of the state,
the chance of getting above the long term median rainfall for the same
period is marginally higher at 50 to 60%.
Based on these probabilities, this forecast would not be regarded as
indicating a high chance of getting well above average rain during
September to November. It's also worth remembering that we are still in
our "traditional dry season" of August and September. These months have
the lowest median monthly rainfall totals for most locations in
Queensland. For example median rainfall for August and September at
Blackall is 9 mm and 6 mm, at Emerald is 11 mm and 9 mm, at Goondiwindi
is 26 mm and 34 mm, at Toowoomba is 33 mm and 41 mm and Mareeba is 2 mm
and 2 mm.
STATE DROUGHT DECLARATIONS:
As at 31 August 2009, 35 percent of the land area of Queensland is
drought declared under State processes. There are a total of ten
Individually Droughted Properties (IDPs) in four local government areas.
RAINFALL AND TEMPERATURES: (figure in brackets indicates average)
North Region: Warm dry conditions prevailed across the region this
month although there were some showers along the tropical coast.
Babinda received 27mm (132), Bowen 0mm (n/a), Cairns A/P 7mm
(n/a),Charters Towers 0.0mm (n/a), Georgetown 0.0mm (n/a), Ingham 0.3mm
(37), Innisfail 38mm (n/a), Normanton A/P n/a (n/a), Proserpine A/P 0mm
(n/a) and Townsville 0mm (14).
West Region: There was no effective rainfall recorded across the region
with only Cunnamulla 1.4mm and Quilpie 2mm with recordings above 1mm.
There was an unseasonably hot period in the last two weeks of the month
with many centres recording their highest August temperatures on record
with temperatures in the mid to high thirties.
Birdsville n/a (10), Boulia 0mm (8), Windorah 0mm (9), Cloncurry n/a
(n/a), Mt Isa 0mm (5), Longreach 0mm (14), Muttaburra n/a (13), Winton
0mm (6) and Charleville 0.2mm (22).
Central Region: There was no effective rainfall recorded across the
region this month. Temperatures were average to slightly higher for the
first part of the month and well above average during the last week.
Dry windy periods contributed to soil/plant moisture loss.
Alpha recorded 5mm (22), Clermont 0mm (21), Springsure 1mm (26), Mackay
1mm (29), Yaamba n/a (26), Biloela A/P n/a (n/a), Mt Larcom n/a (36),
Gladstone 1mm (32), Theodore n/a (31), and Yeppoon 2mm (n/a).
South-East Region: Rainfall was well below average for the month in all
centres. Any rainfall received was minimal and has had no beneficial
effect on pastures or water supplies. Record high temperatures for
August were experienced in many areas and hot dry winds have exacerbated
the dry conditions.
Eidsvold recorded 2mm (34), Gayndah n/a (36), Mundubbera 4mm (34), Esk
4mm (34), Kilkivan n/a (39), Kingaroy 0.8mm (n/a), Nanango 0mm (40),
Proston 3mm (35), and Beaudesert n/a (n/a). On the coastal fringe
Bundaberg received 2mm (38), Maryborough 6mm (45), Nambour 7mm (n/a) and
Tewantin 2mm (n/a).
South Region: Rainfall was below average for the month following an
extended dry period since June 2009.
Clifton recorded 2mm (38), Dalby 1mm (n/a), Goondiwindi 5mm (n/a),
Inglewood n/a (37), Oakey 7mm (30), Pittsworth 4mm (40), Stanthorpe 4mm
(48), Toowoomba AP 4mm (n/a), Warwick 0.4mm (n/a), Roma 1mm (n/a), Miles
4mm (n/a), St George A/P 0.2mm (n/a) and Taroom 1mm (31).
LIVESTOCK, PASTURES AND WATER:
North Region: Livestock and pastures continue their normal decrease in
condition following the dry seasonal conditions this month. Overall
pastures are generally in good condition with plenty of dry feed
available. Dry season supplementation is occurring to help stock
overcome normal nutritional deficiencies. Stock are generally in good
condition. Bushfire risk is high with a large body of feed and hot dry
days. Areas in the gulf region have experienced pasture death due to
flooding. The region's major water storages of Tinaroo and Burdekin Dams
received good inflows this year and are at 78% and 94% respectively. On
farm storages have all been replenished and many small creeks and
streams continue to run fresh water.
West Region: In the north pastures are predominantly hayed off. Quantity
is generally good but reducing which is normal for this time of year.
Quality continues to deteriorate and many producers are using
supplements. There are significant fire hazards in many areas. Stock
condition is generally above score 2 and 3 with dry stock often above
this condition score. Pasture has also hayed off in the central west and
is deteriorating fairly rapidly. Areas such as in the Isisford and
Blackall districts where early winter rain was received are now slipping
in condition as the winter herbage deteriorates, exacerbated by the hot
period late in the month. Isolated dry areas are showing signs of
grazing pressure from both domestic stock and kangaroos. Stock,
particularly lactating stock, have slipped in condition as a consequence
of the reducing pasture quality, and in some areas quantity. In areas of
poorer feed quality stock are in score 2 to 3 or less. In the south west
the area around Quilpie, Cooladdi, Charleville, Adavale and Wyandra that
received useful rain in winter had pastures freshen up but with little
growth. Herbage response has been poorer than expected. The eastern part
of the area generally has good standover feed. Areas south of Cunnamulla
are generally reducing stock numbers and considering a feeding regime
where there has not been significant standover feed from the previous
summer. Some areas that received little rain in summer and then good
falls in April are experiencing significant germination of pimelea.
Central Region: Livestock are generally in fair to good condition in all
areas although with calving season under way lactating breeders,
especially heifers, are deteriorating rapidly. Pastures are of poor
quality in vast areas of the Rockhampton district. They are of better
quality but of concern in the Mackay and Bowen districts and where they
are not over utilised there is sufficient moisture for pastures to
respond to small falls of rain. Open and severely frosted areas of the
Central Highlands also have lower quality feed than other parts of the
region. Pasture availability is high where well managed but fire is a
threat. Sale numbers have increased with the mixed quality/condition of
cattle being presented. Supplementation is increasing in all districts.
Surface water is rapidly drying back in all areas.
South-East Region: Pastures have dried off significantly since last
month and frosts have had a detrimental effect on quality. Livestock
condition generally remains good to excellent throughout most of the
region. Stock movements to sale have been average for this time of year
and many producers have placed cattle in feedlots to finish after
pastures have lost protein.
South Region: Pasture availability and quality has fallen over the
winter period, however stock are generally in strong condition. The
rainfall deficit over the past months has limited herbage and medic
growth and frosts have reduced protein levels in pastures. There has
been an increase in drought feeding throughout the region with
supplements being purchased and failed crops fed to stock. On farm water
storage levels are average to below because of limited summer runoff.
CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE:
North Region: Legume crops on the Tablelands have experienced
exceptional growing conditions and harvesting of lablab, forage peanut
and stylos has commenced. On the wet tropical coast warmer than average
winter temperatures have provided excellent growing conditions. The cane
harvest continues across the region this month with dry conditions being
ideal for harvesting.
Central Region: Some wheat crops have been harvested but the main
harvest will begin in late September early October. At the present time
chickpea crops are generally doing better than wheat crops and crops
north of Emerald are better than crops south of Emerald. Bowen growers
are in full production and the warmer daily temperatures have
facilitated good crop development resulting in abundant supply to
southern markets. The Mackay cane harvest is over the half way mark with
the yield being less than predicted. However the sugar content is very
high.
South-East Region: There was a large area of winter crop such as barley
and wheat planted this year. The outlook for these crops is now poor
with many being fed off or baled for hay. Harvesting of late varieties
of Reed and Wurtz avocados continued on the Sunshine Coast. The record
high temperatures towards the end of the month brought on fruit maturity
for strawberries and large volumes of fruit were harvested. Harvesting
of macadamia nuts continued through August.
South Region: There was widespread planting of wheat, barley and
chickpea crops this winter with May and June rainfall providing good
planting opportunities. There has been no appreciable rainfall
throughout the region since June and the lack of rain and heatwave
conditions in August have severely affected production. Many crops are
being fed off to livestock.
Information provided by:
REGIONAL SERVICES
Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454
National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)
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The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Environment & Resource Management and Primary Industries & Fisheries. |
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