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12 May 2009

OUTLOOK:

>From the Queensland Climate Change Centre of Excellence:

The monthly value of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) for January was plus 8.2 and for February was plus 15.2. This places the SOI in a Consistently Positive phase for the sixth month in a row. Based on historical rainfall records and a Consistently Positive SOI phase at the end of February, there is a reasonable 50 to 70% chance of getting above median rainfall during March through to the end of May across most of Queensland.

For example Nambour has an 70% chance of getting above its March to May median rainfall of 485mm, Prairie has a 70% chance of getting above its March to May median rainfall of 76mm, Alpha has a 65% chance of getting above its March to May median rainfall of 98mm, Barcaldine has a 65% chance of getting above its March to May median rainfall of 98mm, Dalby has a 60% chance of getting above its March to May median rainfall of 120mm, Longreach has a 60% chance of getting above its March to May median rainfall of 77mm, Roma has a 55% chance of getting above its March to May median rainfall of 118mm and Macalister has a 50% chance of getting above its March to May median rainfall of 130mm.

STATE DROUGHT DECLARATIONS:

As at 31 January 2009, 54.3 percent of the land area of Queensland is drought declared under State processes. There are also seven Individually Droughted Properties (IDPs) in a further two areas.

RAINFALL AND TEMPERATURES: (figure in brackets indicates average)

North Region:

Rainfall across the region was well above average this month following Tropical Cyclone Ellie and ongoing monsoonal influences. As a result major flooding occurred right across the region from the Gulf to the tropical coast. The exception to this is the northern peninsula districts where rainfall was average to below average during February. Temperatures have generally been mild due to the wet overcast conditions with mean maximum temperatures up to 3 degrees below the long term average.

Babinda received 1470mm (738), Cairns A/P 638mm (422), Ingham 1401mm (410), Innisfail 1013mm (n/a), Townsville 989mm (232), Bowen 668mm (n/a), Charters Towers 429mm (n/a), Georgetown 420mm (n/a) and Normanton A/P n/a (n/a) and Proserpine A/P 675mm (n/a).

West Region:

There has been significant rainfall recorded in the north of the region, although little rainfall has been recorded to the south, particularly the south west where it was patchier and more storm rain rather than general rain. Sunlight finally broke through in the gulf catchment about half way through the month and this has been useful in assisting drying out sodden catchments and assisting pasture growth.

Birdsville n/a (21), Boulia 10mm (41), Windorah 8mm (45), Cloncurry n/a (n/a), Mt Isa 178mm (86), Longreach 127mm (69), Muttaburra 200mm (71), Winton 148mm (80) and Charleville 18mm (55).

Central Region:

Good to above average rain fell across the region for the month and temperatures have been around average. There was above average rainfall across the Central Highlands with considerable local flooding in low areas.

Alpha recorded 94mm (81), Clermont 137mm (104), Springsure 81mm (113), Mackay 605mm (302), Yaamba 306mm (127), Biloela A/P n/a (n/a), Mt Larcom 222mm (129), Gladstone 237mm (140), Theodore 116mm (90), and Yeppoon 278mm (n/a).

South-East Region:

Rainfall and temperatures have varied markedly during the month. Many centres have received average or above average rainfall whilst other districts have missed out on useful falls. There have been welcome flows in many watercourses after heavy storm rainfall.

Eidsvold recorded 81mm (106), Gayndah 90mm (87), Mundubbera 78mm (74), Esk 82mm (100), Kilkivan n/a (94), Kingaroy 116mm (n/a), Nanango 168mm (86), Proston 119mm (77), and Beaudesert n/a (n/a). On the coastal fringe Bundaberg received 257mm (148), Maryborough 136mm (163), Nambour 190mm (n/a) and Tewantin 146mm (n/a).

South Region:

Temperatures and rainfall across the region were generally in the average range for this time of year.

Clifton recorded 47mm (87), Dalby 84mm (n/a), Goondiwindi 21mm (n/a), Inglewood n/a (68), Oakey 38mm (84), Pittsworth 67mm (76), Stanthorpe 82mm (81), Toowoomba AP 63mm (n/a), Warwick 62mm (n/a), Roma 79mm (n/a), Miles 63mm (n/a), St George A/P 38mm (n/a) and Taroom 98mm (76).

LIVESTOCK, PASTURES AND WATER:

North Region: Livestock condition varies across the region. In Gulf areas where major flooding has been an ongoing event for much of this year animals have suffered production losses due to exposure and lack of available pasture due to water inundation. Many also perished in the initial flood event but numbers will not be known until musters later in the year. Pastures in the Gulf that have been inundated for lengthy periods have suffered and it is expected will provide little productive growth this season and recovery will be slow. Those animals in the remainder of the region that were generally not adversely affected now have adequate pasture of reasonable quality and quantity and are in excellent condition. Northern peninsula districts pastures have not had the growth experienced in other areas but there is still opportunity for rainfall this wet season to improve the situation. The region's major water storages of Tinaroo and Burdekin Dams received good inflows this month and are both at 100%. On farm storages have been replenished but damage to dams and subsequent reduction in capacity may see some problems in the extensive grazing areas during the dry season.

West Region: Much of the north remains relatively inaccessible and aerial options are the only method of reliable transport. Pastures are starting to become active in those areas where water has receded. Areas with high water flow and larger amounts of silt are likely to take some time to recover and may need to come back from seed. The Georgina and Diamantina River systems have both had major flooding events. Fodder drops to stock in the Gulf area were undertaken during the month and stock range from score 1 to score 4, depending on the exposure to the flood events and boggy soil conditions they have had to endure. Pasture response in the central west is entirely driven by the quality of the pasture pre January and the amount of rain received and consequently pastures range from excellent to very poor. Many producers in this area have little available feed and stock condition is strongly aligned to the pasture quality and quantity. The southern part of the region has not had the amount of cooler summer conditions that the centre and north have experienced and as a consequence pastures and herbage has dried off considerably. Some flooding in the west through the channel country rivers will relieve properties with frontage to those rivers.

Central Region: Widespread rain across the Dawson and Callide Valleys during the month has resulted in improvement in conditions. Some producers, particularly in the central and southern Dawson Valley areas were carting water and were suffering from drying off pastures and subsequent reduced cattle performance before the rain, but this has now improved. Reports indicate that most areas will have good levels of feed and cover coming into winter. In the Rockhampton district conditions improved during February with useful falls of rain occurring throughout the month. High humidity combined with the rain provided opportunities for pastures to respond. The Mackay district has recorded above average rain with moderate flooding, resulting in good to very good pasture and stock condition, although coastal response of cane and pastures has been impacted by cloudy days. Cattle are in good to excellent condition in the Emerald district. Pastures are generally very good although there have been some reports of disappointing growth of buffel in some areas.

South-East Region: Livestock condition is good to excellent throughout the region. Stock movements to sale have been average for this time of year. Pasture condition is generally very good. On farm water supplies are variable with some farms having full dams whilst others await runoff rain to replenish water supplies.

South Region: Pastures responded to above median summer rainfall. Stock condition improved as a consequence of increased pasture availability due to rainfall and low stocking rates. Pasture production experienced this summer has limited the need for drought feeding. Water capacities have held over recent months in major storages.

CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE:

North Region: In the wet tropics banana crops in areas where flooding occurred in the Tully/Innisfail area have suffered production and quality issues due to water-logging and weather damage. Pawpaws are particularly vulnerable to wet conditions and significant reduction in quality and yields is occurring in coastal and tableland crops. Sugarcane growing conditions have not been ideal this month with cloudy overcast conditions persisting for much of January and well into February. Flooding impacts in the Herbert district are estimated to have reduced production estimates.

Central Region: Horticulture ground preparation has been delayed in the Bowen district. Crop conditions improved in the Dawson and Callide Valleys during the month following widespread rainfall of up to 150mm. However, some pulse and cotton crops were close to harvest and have experienced weather damage. Further planting of summer crops such as mungbeans, sorghum and corn has occurred. In the Central Highlands above average summer rainfall has been the norm and reports indicate considerable wash and erosion has occurred even in some paddocks with good wheat stubble cover. Spring sorghum yields have been good to excellent aided by milder summer temperatures.

South-East Region: Late February rainfall has benefitted many crops in the South Burnett, however some small local areas require follow up rain to achieve average yields. Significant areas of peanuts, maize, sorghum, mungbeans and soybeans have been planted. Some early planted sunflowers have been harvested. On the Burnett Coast good rain in the past few weeks is reflected in sugarcane crop growth. The rain was also very timely for the soy crop that was at flowering/early pod fill stage. The earliest planted peanut crops are getting close to digging. Bundaberg avocado growers will begin harvesting Sheperd variety in mid March and the macadamia crops from this area are looking promising at this stage. Reports from growers in the Glasshouse Mountains and Gympie areas indicate their crops are at a similar standard. Fruit set has been good in persimmon and there are expectations for a good harvest at this stage when the season begins in March.

South Region: Early sorghum crops have generally yielded average or better with excellent yields reported from parts of the eastern Darling Downs. Rain affected the harvest on the Darling Downs although there were benefits from this for late maturing crops such as corn, soybeans, mungbeans and sunflowers. Grape crops have produced a very good harvest and good irrigation water storages have assisted vegetable production.

Information provided by:
REGIONAL SERVICES

Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454

National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)

The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Environment & Resource Management and Primary Industries & Fisheries.