SEASONAL CONDITIONS AS AT 31 JULY 2009
OUTLOOK:
>From the Queensland Climate Change Centre of Excellence (QCCCE):
Despite the value of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) fluctuating
during the last few weeks, based on the shift in monthly value of the
SOI from minus 2.8 for June to plus 2 for July, the SOI has remained in
a "Consistently Near Zero" phase.
An analysis of historical rainfall and a Consistently Near Zero SOI
phase at the end of July indicates a 40 to 50% chance of getting above
median rainfall throughout most of Queensland during August to October.
This is a marginal improvement on the July to September seasonal
outlook.
The exception is for the region running from the central Queensland
coast to the peninsula and adjacent inland area where there is a lower
20 to 40% chance of getting above median rainfall. The latest rainfall
probability maps are available at www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au
It is worth noting that August and September have the lowest median
monthly rainfall totals for most locations in Queensland. As an example
median rainfall for August and September at Blackall is 9 mm and 6 mm,
at Emerald 11 mm and 9 mm, at Goondiwindi 26 mm and 34 mm, at Toowoomba
33 mm and 41 mm and Mareeba 2 mm and 2 mm.
STATE DROUGHT DECLARATIONS:
As at 31 July 2009, 35 percent of the land area of Queensland is drought
declared under State processes. There are a total of eight Individually
Droughted Properties (IDPs) in four local government areas.
RAINFALL AND TEMPERATURES: (figure in brackets indicates average)
North Region: Apart from some rain along the wet tropical coast from
Cairns to Innisfail the rest of the region did not receive any rainfall
this month. Around Charters Towers the monthly mean maximum temperature
was up to two degrees above the long term average but temperatures
remained closer to average across the rest of the region.
Babinda received 27mm (132), Bowen 3mm (n/a), Cairns A/P 4mm
(50),Charters Towers 0.0mm (n/a), Georgetown 0.0mm (n/a), Ingham 26mm
(43), Innisfail 54mm (n/a), Normanton A/P n/a (n/a), Proserpine A/P 15mm
(n/a) and Townsville 0.4mm (20).
West Region: Very little rainfall was recorded during the month.
Temperatures were relatively cool with parts of the south west receiving
regular frosts.
Birdsville n/a (8), Boulia 0mm (11), Windorah 0mm (17), Cloncurry n/a
(n/a), Mt Isa 0mm (9), Longreach 0mm (21), Muttaburra n/a (19), Winton
0mm (17) and Charleville 0.8mm (24).
Central Region: In the Bowen district no rainfall of any consequence was
recorded during the month. No rainfall was reported on the Central
Highlands and in the Dawson/Callide and this followed below average rain
in June, a dry May and moderate but timely rain in April 2009. There has
been no significant rainfall in the Rockhampton district since February.
Below average rainfall was recorded in the Mackay district. Widespread
frosts have been recorded across the Central region but daytime
temperatures have generally been above average.
Alpha recorded n/a (25), Clermont 0mm (23), Springsure 0mm (30), Mackay
0.8mm (48), Yaamba n/a (34), Biloela A/P n/a (n/a), Mt Larcom 2mm (38),
Gladstone 0.8mm (43), Theodore n/a (37), and Yeppoon n/a (n/a).
South-East Region: Rainfall was well below average for the month of July
with many centres not receiving any falls. The good rainfall experienced
in June has generally allowed crops and pastures to survive the dry
conditions. Conditions have been mild with few frosts. Water supplies
away from the coast are still a major issue for many producers.
Eidsvold recorded n/a (38), Gayndah 0mm (39), Mundubbera 1mm (38), Esk
n/a (51), Kilkivan n/a (49), Kingaroy 0.4mm (n/a), Nanango 0mm (49),
Proston n/a (41), and Beaudesert n/a (n/a). On the coastal fringe
Bundaberg received 0.2mm (49), Maryborough 2mm (59), Nambour 12mm (n/a)
and Tewantin 2mm (n/a).
South Region: Rainfall was below average for the month with any falls
recorded generally being less than 10mm.
Clifton recorded 4mm (43), Dalby 3mm (n/a), Goondiwindi 8mm (n/a),
Inglewood n/a (40), Oakey 2mm (38), Pittsworth 6mm (47), Stanthorpe 12mm
(52), Toowoomba AP 4mm (n/a), Warwick 5mm (n/a), Roma 2mm (n/a), Miles
1mm (n/a), St George A/P 6mm (n/a) and Taroom 0mm (35).
LIVESTOCK, PASTURES AND WATER:
North Region: Livestock remain in fair to excellent condition but are
starting to deteriorate as the dry season progresses. This is the
expected northern growth pattern that follows the northern wet and dry
season pasture response. Following the good wet season there is still a
large quantity of pasture available but it has hayed off with little
green now visible. In line with this quality has fallen and normal dry
season supplementation has commenced. There are areas in the Gulf region
where pasture death has occurred following flooding and significant
inundation. The region's major water storages of Tinaroo and Burdekin
Dams received good inflows this year and are at 84% and 99%
respectively. On farm storages have all been replenished and many small
creeks and streams continue to run fresh water.
West Region: In the North West, there was a mixed response to summer
rain with some producers experiencing a very good season and others poor
pasture response, especially in areas that were inundated with flood
waters for a significant period. Pasture quantity is generally good but
is reducing with little growth present or expected, which is normal for
this time of year. Stock condition is generally above score 3, however
with deteriorating pasture quality the majority are starting to slip in
condition. In the Central West pasture has mainly hayed off and
generally grades from good in the north east to poor in the south west
with the exception of the flood out country in the Georgina and
Diamantina systems which are in good condition. Some patches that
received early winter rain have reasonable herbage as a result. Low
lying areas of perennial pastures that responded to this rain in the
southern part of the area were set back from some frosting. Stock are
generally starting to slip as a consequence of the reducing pasture
quality and in some areas pasture quantity. The area of the South West
around Quilpie, Charleville, Adavale and Wyandra that received useful
rain in winter had pastures freshen up although the response has been
described as slow. The eastern part of the area generally has good
standover feed although the quality has reduced as the pastures hayed
off. Frosts in the south have been significant for both pasture and
stock condition. Supplementary feeding is being undertaken in a number
of areas across the West region.
Central Region: In the Emerald district, except in heavily grazed areas,
many paddocks have a large body of dry, frosted grass which has the
potential to burn once summer temperatures arrive. Fire breaks have been
graded in many paddocks and some early burning has occurred. Generally
grass on harder country is short and livestock are losing weight,
whereas on better country most paddocks still have considerable dry
feed. Overall cattle are generally in good condition for this time of
year but cows in harder country with big weaners are in poorer
condition. Pasture has hayed off in the Bowen district, however there is
still considerable soil moisture in selected areas. Cattle are generally
in good condition and both above and below ground water supplies are
plentiful. In the Dawson Callide pasture condition is generally average
for this time of year and where frosts have reduced quality, the
quantity is holding in most areas. Despite recent frosts, in some areas
pastures are producing green pick. Some supplementation is taking place.
Surface water is very short in many areas with numerous dams completely
empty. Overall livestock in the Rockhampton district are in good
condition. Pastures have little nutritional value although there is a
good body of pasture in most areas. Most beef producers are commencing
some form of supplementation. Surface water is rapidly drying back.
Although stock in the Mackay area are generally in good condition,
overall they are just holding with some starting to lose condition.
South-East Region: Livestock condition is good to excellent throughout
the region. Stock movements to sale have been average for this time of
year. Prices are good which reflects the mild season. Pastures have
dried off significantly since last month but there is still a good body
of dry feed. Although frosts have affected the quality of some pastures
the generally mild weather has ensured that pasture is still in good
condition.
South Region: Frosts have affected the nutritive value of grasses and
stock without access to forage crops and/or winter herbage and medics
have dropped condition. Low stocking rates have reduced the need to
drought feed in many instances but frosts have resulted in supplementary
feeding increasing as pasture quality diminishes. On farm water storage
levels are generally average to below average because of limited summer
runoff. Water capacities have held over recent months within major
storages.
CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE:
North Region: Legume crops on the Tablelands have experienced
exceptional growing conditions and high yields are anticipated.
Harvesting of early flowering crops has commenced but the main harvest
will commence in August. On the wet tropical coast banana production has
stabilised to near normal levels. The cane harvest continues across the
region this month. Weather conditions have been ideal with minimal rain
delays.
Central Region: Horticulture is in full production in the Bowen district
with an abundant supply to southern markets. Rainfall from March to May
across Central Queensland was variable and patchy and this is reflected
in the winter crops which are currently generally poor to average.
Winter plantings in the Dawson Callide are reported to be well below
expectation. Some early planted wheat is now either coming into
head/flowering or early filling. Chickpea crops planted into good
fallow moisture are holding and are now flowering or have early pod set.
In the Mackay district the cane industry has commenced irrigating plant
cane. Late planted sorghum crops in the Kilcummin district are still
being harvested with reports of moderate to good yields.
South-East Region: There is a large area of winter crop planted this
year and the current yield potential is good. However many crops will
need rain in early August to achieve production targets.
South Region: There was widespread planting of wheat, barley and
chickpea crops this winter following good planting opportunities from
May and June rainfall. In-crop rain is required to progress crop
production especially in areas that have a limited soil moisture
profile. Large areas of forage oats and barley have also been planted
across the region.
Information provided by:
REGIONAL SERVICES
Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454
National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)
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The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Environment & Resource Management and Primary Industries & Fisheries. |
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