SEASONAL CONDITIONS REPORT AS AT 30 JUNE 2009
OUTLOOK:
>From the Queensland Climate Change Centre of Excellence (QCCCE):
The monthly value of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) for May was
minus 4.9 and for June was minus 2.8. This places the SOI in a
Consistently Near Zero SOI phase. Based on a Consistently Near Zero SOI
phase and historical rainfall records there is a 30 to 40% chance of
getting above the long term median rainfall for July through to the end
of September across most of Queensland (or depending on how you look at
things a 60 to 70% chance of getting below median rainfall).
The exception is for the region to the south east of the Gulf of
Carpentaria where there is a 50 to 70% chance of getting above median
rainfall for July to September. However median rainfall levels at this
time of year in that region are low. For example Normanton has a July to
September median rainfall of 1mm, Julia Creek has a July to September
median rainfall of 6mm and Richmond has a July to September median
rainfall of 8mm.
If strongly negative SOI values develop over coming months and remain
there, it would increase the chance of a dry late winter/spring.
According to the latest ENSO Wrap-up from the Bureau of Meteorology
www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso more evidence of a developing El Nino
climate pattern has emerged during the last few weeks.
Typically during an El Nino event, there is a low chance of getting
above median rainfall during winter, spring and early summer throughout
Queensland. The impact of an El Nino around the state will vary
depending on the seasonal conditions experienced during summer (e.g.
water supply levels for urban and agriculture, sub-soil moisture profile
for cropping/horticulture/pasture/tree growth). As most of central and
northern Queensland recorded average to above average rainfall over the
summer rainfall season, the immediate impact of a potential El Nino
event this year on food production and water supply is likely to be
minimal. This is however in contrast to parts of southern Queensland
such as the Darling Downs and south west of the state where average to
below average rainfall was recorded over the summer rainfall season.
This is following on from a number of years of drought.
STATE DROUGHT DECLARATIONS:
As at 30 June 2009, 35 percent of the land area of Queensland is drought
declared under State processes. There are three Individually Droughted
Properties (IDPs) in the North Burnett.
RAINFALL AND TEMPERATURES: (figure in brackets indicates average)
North Region: Minimal rainfall was recorded across the region this month
with most records indicating below average rainfall totals for June. The
regions major water storages of Tinaroo and Burdekin dams have received
good inflows this year and are at 90% and 100% respectively. On farm
storages have all been replenished and many small creeks and streams
continue to run fresh water. Temperatures are near normal and within a
range of 1 to 2 degrees from long term average.
Babinda received 75mm (208), Bowen 3mm (n/a), Cairns A/P 4mm
(50),Charters Towers 0.0mm (n/a), Georgetown 0.0mm (n/a), Ingham 26mm
(43), Innisfail 54mm (n/a), Normanton A/P n/a (n/a), Proserpine A/P 15mm
(n/a) and Townsville 0.4mm (20).
West Region: Rainfall for the month was patchy but heavier in the
central and south west with good falls recorded at Quilpie, Tambo,
Charleville, Isisford and Cunnamulla. The north west generally
experienced dry conditions.
Birdsville n/a (8), Boulia 0.1mm (7), Windorah 38mm (12), Cloncurry n/a
(n/a), Mt Isa 0mm (3), Longreach 7mm (13), Muttaburra 7mm (13), Winton
18mm (11) and Charleville 59mm (19).
Central Region: Rainfall across Central Queensland was well below
average for June and water levels are drying back quickly. Overall day
time temperatures have been quite warm with only a couple of light
frosts being recorded.
Alpha recorded 21mm (23), Clermont 10mm (24), Springsure 27mm (24),
Mackay 40mm (64), Yaamba 8mm (38), Biloela A/P n/a (n/a), Mt Larcom 12mm
(36), Gladstone 16mm (35), Theodore 24mm (28), and Yeppoon n/a (n/a).
South-East Region: Rainfall was generally better than average for most
districts in June. Warmer winter conditions and the useful rainfall
have produced very good winter prospects for agriculture. Major dam
levels in the southern south east have improved significantly.
Generally conditions across the region have been very good but water
supplies away from the coast are still a major issue for many producers.
Eidsvold recorded 42mm (38), Gayndah 71mm (30), Mundubbera 51mm (31),
Esk 63mm (51), Kilkivan n/a (40), Kingaroy 75mm (n/a), Nanango 80mm
(34), Proston 68mm (31), and Beaudesert n/a (n/a). On the coastal fringe
Bundaberg received 35mm (54), Maryborough 56mm (64), Nambour 161mm (n/a)
and Tewantin 38mm (n/a).
South Region: The rainfall throughout the south region was generally
average throughout June. On farm water storage levels are average to
below due to limited runoff rain this summer.
Clifton recorded 29mm (32), Dalby 34mm (n/a), Goondiwindi 34mm (n/a),
Inglewood 16mm (28), Oakey 34mm (33), Pittsworth 29mm (37), Stanthorpe
40mm (38), Toowoomba AP 25mm (n/a), Warwick 37mm (n/a), Roma 49mm (n/a),
Miles 40mm (n/a), St George A/P 22mm (n/a) and Taroom 18mm (29).
LIVESTOCK, PASTURES AND WATER:
North Region: Livestock remain in fair to excellent condition but will
start to deteriorate as the dry season progresses. Pastures have hayed
off with little green now visible. In line with this, quality has
fallen and normal dry season supplementation has commenced in parts.
Following the good wet season there is still a large quantity of pasture
available, however there are areas of pasture death due to flooding in
the Gulf region.
West Region: Pastures in the north west are predominantly hayed off now
with the exception of pastures in some drainage lines where there was
short term flooding during summer which still have some green leaf.
Pastures inundated for significant periods of time have generally not
recovered. Pasture quality and quantity is generally good however it is
reducing. Stock condition is generally above score 3 however with the
deteriorating pasture quality, stock are starting to slip in condition.
In the central west pasture has mainly hayed off and the quantity grades
from good in the north east to poor in the south west with the exception
of the flood out country in the Georgina and Diamantina systems.
Pasture condition is declining resulting in increasing use of
supplements. Stock are generally starting to slip as a consequence of
the reducing pasture quality but are generally score 3 and above.
Useful rain was recorded in parts of the south west and while it
freshened up pastures, in view of the lateness of the season it is
likely to provide some relief for the winter period only. The eastern
part of the area generally has good standover feed although the quality
has reduced as the pastures hay off. There have been reports of frosts
burning pastures from areas that had response to the April rain. Many
producers particularly to the central part of the area have little
available feed.
Central Region: All stock are still in fair to good condition with
those in the Central Highlands and Central Lowlands being marketed as
finished bullocks. Gracemere sales have seen a steady rise in numbers.
Dry season feeding is commencing in many areas. Pastures are generally
very dry in most areas.
South-East Region: Livestock condition is good to excellent throughout
the region. Stock movements to sale have been average for this time of
year. Prices for stock are reported as being very good which reflects
the mild season and better than average rainfall. Pastures have dried
off although with recent rain received and not a lot of frosts there is
still some green leaf in pastures.
South Region: It is expected that some livestock condition may start to
drop after widespread frosts were recorded this month, limiting the
nutritive value of grasses. The widespread rain received in May has
encouraged forage oats and barley planting and generated winter herbage
and medics in many areas. Low stocking rates throughout the region have
generally reduced the requirement for drought feeding.
WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES:
The latest Water Storage Report from SunWater is attached.
CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE:
North Region: Legume crops on the Tablelands have been growing well with
exceptional growing conditions this month. Harvesting of early crops
will commence soon and good yields are anticipated. In banana crops the
quality affected from excessive rainfall and flooding early in the year
is starting to wane and fruit quality is improving. After a very wet
start to the year conditions are starting to return to a more normal
pattern and production has stabilised.
The cane harvest continues across the region this month. Weather
conditions have been ideal with minimal rain delays. In the Ingham
district planting has commenced after wet conditions delayed its start.
In the Burdekin replanting of crops that succumbed to water logging has
occurred and as with the other areas rain delays early in the season
have seen the normal planting period extended. Yields have been down
but CCS has been good. On the Tablelands the harvest is progressing
well.
Central Region: Early sorghum is now being harvested in the Banana
area. Wheat and chickpeas are reflecting rainfall, with the earlier
planted crops generally doing better than the crops planted in late May.
South-East Region: Peanut crops in the Burnett have now been harvested
with yields reported as being average however prices are low. Most
sorghum crops have now been harvested. Many corn crops are still in the
paddock waiting for drier conditions. The outlook for winter crops this
season is excellent so far but projected grain prices are low. Coastal
horticulture producers have been affected by the heavy rainfall and this
is expected to affect harvesting of all crops.
South Region: There has been widespread planting of wheat and chickpeas
as many producers had resisted planting in summer and elected to store
soil moisture for winter crops that had better financial prospects.
Rainfall received throughout May and June provided a good opportunity to
plant. Producers in some areas east of St George and Meandarra delayed
sowing to allow the soil to dry. In some cases a replant was required
after falls of 100 to 150 mm in May. More eastern parts of the region
were planted in June. Subsoil moisture varies within the region. Long
fallow country (12 to 18 months) has excellent sub soil moisture profile
while areas within the Western Downs had only 20 cm and will require in
crop rain to reach average yields. Good irrigation water storages have
ensured continuous vegetable production.
Information provided by:
REGIONAL SERVICES
Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454
National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)
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The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Environment & Resource Management and Primary Industries & Fisheries. |
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