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12 May 2009

OUTLOOK:

>From the Queensland Climate Change Centre of Excellence (QCCCE):

According to the latest ENSO wrap-up from the Bureau of Meteorology a neutral sea surface temperature (SST) and climate pattern can be found in the equatorial Pacific (key region running along the equator from the international dateline west towards South America). SST's in this region have warmed over the last couple of months. This is a trend away from the cooler La Nina like SST pattern that was a feature of the last six to nine months.

It is also worth noting that a consistent and maintained warming of SST in this region throughout autumn and into winter would be viewed as a precursor for the development of an El Nino climate pattern. Therefore QCCCE staff will closely monitor what happens over the next few months especially as autumn is a key time for the establishment of climate phenomena such as El Nino and La Nina. The majority of the surveyed global climate models are forecasting a neutral SST pattern through to at least July 2009. Interestingly none are forecasting any potential return of La Nina or La Nina like conditions.

In the meantime the monthly values of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) fell from February (+15.2) to March (-1.5). Based on historical rainfall records and a Rapidly Falling SOI phase at the end of March, there is a lower 30 to 50% chance of getting above median rainfall during April through to the end of June across most of Queensland.

STATE DROUGHT DECLARATIONS:

54.3 percent of the land area of Queensland is drought declared under State processes. There are also seven Individually Droughted Properties (IDPs) in a further two areas.

RAINFALL AND TEMPERATURES: (figure in brackets indicates average)

North Region: Generally dry conditions were experienced across the north region this month with below average rainfall, however there were some good falls in isolated showers and thunderstorms in some areas.

Babinda received 435mm (816), Cairns A/P 149mm (449), Ingham 138mm (454), Innisfail 439mm (n/a), Townsville 18mm (176), Bowen 24mm (n/a), Charters Towers 11mm (n/a), Georgetown 16mm (n/a) and Normanton A/P n/a (n/a) and Proserpine A/P 84mm (n/a).

West Region: March has generally been a dry month across the region while statistically being one of the wetter months. Follow up rain has been patchy following previous months of significant rain in the north and north east. The north of the region is becoming more accessible as roads dry out. All flooding has ceased in the Georgina and Diamantina river system. Temperatures to the south and west have remained above average for the time of year. East and north of the region has tended to record about average to a little below average temperatures.

Birdsville n/a (19), Boulia 0mm (35), Windorah 1mm (32), Cloncurry n/a (n/a), Mt Isa 0mm (65), Longreach 38mm (65), Muttaburra 24mm (64), Winton 19mm (51) and Charleville 0mm (59).

Central Region:

Following above average rainfall on the Central Highlands in January and February, little or no rain fell in March 2009. In the Rockhampton district average to above average rainfall over a short summer period interspersed with strong winds has caused much of this area to produce varying bodies of native pastures that have now gone to seed. In most districts the benefits of the light rainfall events have gone before the next event. The Mackay district recorded near average rainfall with most falling in the early part of the month. Below average falls were recorded for the month in the Biloela district.

Alpha recorded 26mm (70), Clermont 0.1mm (75), Springsure 21mm (69), Mackay 276mm (312), Yaamba 13mm (117), Biloela A/P n/a (n/a), Mt Larcom 12mm (109), Gladstone 36mm (104), Theodore 8mm (46), and Yeppoon 278mm (n/a).

South-East Region:

Rainfall was well below average for most districts during the month. Temperatures have been mild and windy conditions have dried off pastures and crops.

Eidsvold recorded 23mm (71), Gayndah 14mm (59), Mundubbera 24mm (56), Esk 29mm (87), Kilkivan n/a (85), Kingaroy 15mm (n/a), Nanango 27mm (74), Proston 18mm (68), and Beaudesert n/a (n/a). On the coastal fringe Bundaberg received 36mm (127), Maryborough 106mm (134), Nambour 204mm (n/a) and Tewantin 202mm (n/a).

South Region:

Rainfall throughout the region was well below average.

Clifton recorded 33mm (73), Dalby 8mm (n/a), Goondiwindi 1mm (n/a), Inglewood n/a (59), Oakey 21mm (52), Pittsworth 13mm (69), Stanthorpe 32mm (75), Toowoomba AP 15mm (n/a), Warwick 25mm (n/a), Roma 0.8mm (n/a), Miles 9mm (n/a), St George A/P 0.2mm (n/a) and Taroom 9mm (64).

LIVESTOCK, PASTURES AND WATER:

North Region: Livestock and pastures are in good condition on the back of good summer rainfall. It is still too wet on some properties to commence mustering or transport cattle. Live export boats have been a regular feature this month. Both major water storages of Tinaroo and Burdekin Falls dams are at 100% capacity. Irrigation water allocations are ensured for this year. Good flows in all rivers and tributaries this season have resulted in adequate water supplies.

West Region: North West: Pastures are responding to sunlight and good pasture growth conditions with a few exceptions. Pastures subject to flooding particularly with deep water for a significant period of time appear to have died. Areas affected by this are principally in the Gulf Catchments, however there are also areas along the Georgina river system that have similar observed results from the flooding. In the north pasture quality and quantity are generally very good but the very dry March has resulted in pastures to the south haying off where rainfall was not as high. There is a general graduation from perennial predominance to the north grading to higher annual pasture content to the south in line with a combination of early storms and overall total rainfall. Stock condition is generally above score 3 in the area.

Central West: Pasture quality and quantity are generally very good in the north west grading to poor and non existent for those areas to the south west. The channel flood out country of the Georgina and Diamantina is generally the exception. There are reports of isolated dry areas between Corfield and Muttaburra. Stock condition across the Central West is generally improving as a result of the patchy rain and is generally above score 3.

South West: The southern part of the region has experienced a warm to hot summer and pastures and herbage have dried off considerably. The eastern part of the area generally has good standover feed and has received sufficient rain to freshen up the pastures until as late as February with some isolated storm rain. The rainfall tapers off to the west. Areas west of the Paroo River are in the poorest condition with some producers receiving less than 25mm for the summer. This dry patch extends north and east towards Blackall. Mulga continues to die in particularly low rainfall areas. Some flooding in the west through the channel country rivers will relieve properties with frontage to these rivers. Stock agisted to the eastern parts of the area from further north are generally being returned to the properties of origin. Many producers particularly in the central part of the area have little available feed. Stock condition is strongly aligned to the pasture quality and quantity available.

Central Region: Cattle are generally in good to excellent condition. On the Central Highlands pastures are generally in good condition. Most paddocks have matured and seeded and the feed available is very much a reflection of stocking pressure in that paddock. Pastures have generally seeded in the Rockhampton district and are now quickly drying off. A late break in the season south of Rockhampton has not allowed the pasture to grow bulk but where rainfall happened early, the bulk of feed is much better. In the Mackay district pastures are seeding and haying off after an excellent grass year. Pastures in the Biloela district are variable but generally stock are in excellent condition with some sign of weight loss in lactating breeders. On the Central Highlands surface stock water is plentiful but in the Rockhampton district dam water is short in the Bauhinia area. Creeks are rapidly drying back along the coastal strip where flows have been very small. Public water storages in the Mackay district are filled to capacity with the exception of Peter Faust Dam. Some on-property storages in the hinterland have not filled but there have been no reports of concern about water storage. There have been variable flows in the north east Fitzroy river streams, with some recording good flows while others have just run. Water supplies in the Biloela district are drying back quickly.

South-East Region: Livestock condition is good to excellent throughout the region. Stock movements to sale have been average for this time of year. Prices have generally stabilised with the very good pasture condition, although windy conditions have dried off pastures. On farm water supplies are variable with some farms having full dams whilst others await runoff rain to replenish water supplies. In the area north west of Monto there are reports of water being carted. Many farms in the Lockyer are pumping from several bores into dams and then irrigating from these dams. Water levels in major storages remain low.

South Region: Grazing animals are in strong condition in most areas and this body condition has been assisted by stocking rates lower than normal. Areas within the Northern Downs around Quinalow and Bell as well as the Tara district of the Central Downs have below average pasture availability. In the Maranoa/Balonne the pasture quantity is average to below with pastures having dried off significantly in recent weeks. Pasture production generated this summer limited the need for drought feeding but there are reports of concern that many areas may have insufficient pasture going into winter and stock will require handfeeding during the cooler months. Improved seasonal conditions have allowed some producers to return stock to previously droughted properties in southern areas.

WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES

The latest Water Storage Report from SunWater can be found at www.sunwater.com.au.

CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE:

North Region: On the Tablelands maize crops have started to dry down and harvesting will commence in late April/early May. Harvesting of potato and peanut crops is underway. There are reports of good growing conditions for cane after wet overcast conditions reduced growth earlier in the year.

West Region: Some opportunity sorghum cropping has been observed although generally there is little cropping activity across the west region. Northern parts with irrigation are starting to prepare for the winter cropping season or are making hay while conditions are right. In the south the rivers have generally had a run and there is little impediment to normal irrigation practice.

Central Region: The bulk of the 2009 summer sorghum crop on the Central Highlands was planted in January, although a higher than normal area was planted in February. The January crop is flowering and is looking good. It should yield well without rain, although all crops are looking for rain now to reach their potential. Most mungbeans have been harvested. A full profile now has set up a potentially large winter crop planting. The Dawson Callide has a larger percentage of area planted to mungbeans and crops were generally planted after receiving good rain in early January. Plantings have continued well into February and early March, after storm rainfall during February. Summer crop yields have been variable, depending on plant available moisture, weed/insect pressure and in crop rain but generally have achieved average to above average results, in particular some dryland mungbean growers.

South-East Region: Many summer crops in the South Burnett are now being harvested. Early peanut crops have average yields with later crops being affected by the dry conditions during the month. Corn crops have been stressed by the lack of rainfall. Significant areas of crop have been planted in the Coalstoun Lakes area but the dry finish to the season indicates that yields may be lower than expected. Small crop producers in the Burnett have generally reported a good season and horticulture production in the Lockyer Valley is doing well with good production levels. Some bore levels along Lockyer Creek have been replenished but generally irrigation bores higher in the valley have had minimal or no recharge.

South Region: Early sorghum crops have generally yielded average or better and some very good yields were recorded in parts of the Eastern Darling Downs. There is low subsoil moisture going into winter in many areas and it is expected there will need to be substantial in crop rain to guarantee average 2009 wheat yields. Many producers have reduced water allocations from bores, with little on-farm storage. The cotton season this year in parts of southern Queensland is reported to be reasonable. Grape crops have produced a very good harvest and there are reports of a reasonable season for apples on the Granite Belt.

Information provided by:
REGIONAL SERVICES

Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454

National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)

The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Environment & Resource Management and Primary Industries & Fisheries.