SEASONAL CONDITIONS AS AT 31 MAY 2009
OUTLOOK:
>From the Queensland Climate Change Centre of Excellence (QCCCE):
The monthly value of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) dropped in
value from plus 8.0 for April to minus 5.0 for May placing the SOI in a
Rapidly Falling phase. An analysis of historical rainfall records
indicates that a Rapidly Falling SOI phase at the end of May increases
the risk of drier than normal conditions along the central and northern
coastal strip of Queensland and throughout much of the southern third of
the state.
Generally throughout these regions there is a 20 to 40% chance of
getting above median rainfall for June to August (or depending on how
you like to look at things a 60 to 80% chance of getting below median
rainfall for June to August). Throughout the rest of the state, the
chance of getting above the long term June to August median rainfall is
generally between 40 to 60%.
While fluctuations in the value of the SOI are not unusual at this time
of year (during the autumn predictability barrier) it will be
interesting to see if this downward trend of the SOI is maintained. If
the 30 day average of the SOI were to remain in strongly negative
values, it would be a warning sign for a likely dry winter/spring.
STATE DROUGHT DECLARATIONS:
As at 31 May 2009, 35 percent of the land area of Queensland is drought
declared under State processes. There are three Individually Droughted
Properties (IDPs) in the North Burnett.
The Minister for Primary Industries, Fisheries and Rural and Regional
Queensland has revoked the following local government areas from drought
status:
* Boulia, north of the Kennedy Development Road and Donohue
Highway, effective 1 March 2009.
* McKinlay and Richmond, south of the Flinders Highway, effective
1 April 2009.
* Longreach - bounded by the Landsborough Highway from the eastern
boundary of the Longreach Regional Council to Longreach and from
Longreach to the northern boundary of the Regional Council along the
Winton Stock Route adjacent to Maneroo Creek, effective 17 April 2009.
* Winton, Gympie, South Burnett, Lockyer Valley, Ipswich,
Somerset, North Burnett, Mt Isa, Cloncurry, Balonne, Southern Downs,
Central Highlands north of the Capricorn Highway, all effective 21 April
2009.
RAINFALL AND TEMPERATURES: (figure in brackets indicates average)
North Region:
Rainfall was varied across the region this month with falls well above
average along the wet tropical coast in the Innisfail-Ingham areas. In
other parts recorded falls were near average to slightly below average.
Cooler conditions associated with the rain saw mean monthly minimum and
maximum temperatures up to one degree below normal.
Babinda received 390mm (427), Bowen 2mm (n/a), Cairns A/P 89mm
(107),Charters Towers 19mm (n/a), Georgetown 1mm (n/a), Ingham 134mm
(126), Innisfail 445mm (n/a), Normanton A/P n/a (n/a), Proserpine A/P
34mm (n/a) and Townsville 7mm (40).
West Region:
Rainfall across the region during May was light and patchy.
Birdsville n/a (14), Boulia 4mm (14), Windorah 30mm (23), Cloncurry n/a
(n/a), Mt Isa 0mm (17), Longreach 0.6mm (29), Muttaburra n/a (22),
Winton 2mm (23) and Charleville 12mm (41).
Central Region:
May was a relatively dry month for the Central Highlands following
moderate but timely rainfall during April. Mackay district enjoyed
widespread showers during May and this, combined with the shorter hours
of daylight and lower evaporation, has kept soil moisture levels high.
Bowen district had no rain of any consequence during May and
temperatures fell in line with seasonal conditions. The Biloela
district recorded moderate falls but water storages (both above and
below ground) have not been adequately replenished.
Alpha recorded 5mm (40), Clermont 18mm (47), Springsure 5mm (47), Mackay
79mm (115), Yaamba 37mm (63), Biloela A/P n/a (n/a), Mt Larcom 18mm
(63), Gladstone 11mm (70), Theodore 21mm (47), and Yeppoon 114mm (n/a).
South-East Region:
Rainfall was average for most districts during the month except for the
Sunshine Coast, Brisbane and the Gold Coast areas where there was
significant above average, and in some cases record, rainfall. Dam
levels in the southern South East have improved significantly. Water
supplies away from the coast are still a major issue.
Eidsvold recorded 42mm (44), Gayndah 38mm (41), Mundubbera 25mm (40),
Esk 183mm (59), Kilkivan 67mma (49), Kingaroy 40mm (n/a), Nanango 76mm
(48), Proston 75mm (45), and Beaudesert n/a (n/a). On the coastal fringe
Bundaberg received 83mm (69), Maryborough 108mm (78), Nambour 200mm
(n/a) and Tewantin 216mm (n/a).
South Region:
There was average or above rainfall recorded for May across the region.
Clifton recorded 89mm (48), Dalby 57mm (n/a), Goondiwindi 68mm (n/a),
Inglewood 83mm (43), Oakey 73mm (45), Pittsworth 62mm (44), Stanthorpe
140mm (52), Toowoomba AP 49mm (n/a), Warwick 82mm (n/a), Roma 48mm
(n/a), Miles 34mm (n/a), St George A/P 62mm (n/a) and Taroom 21mm (42).
LIVESTOCK, PASTURES AND WATER:
North Region: First round musters got underway after delays in some of
the more severely flood affected areas this month. This will allow beef
producers to get a better idea of stock losses from flooding earlier in
the year. Some roads, especially in the Peninsula, remain under load
restrictions which is limiting the movement of cattle in these areas.
Generally across the region stock are in very good condition after a
good wet season across the north. Pasture growth has generally been
excellent with the odd exception due to flood related death. The
region's major water storages of Tinaroo and Burdekin Dams received good
inflows this year and are at 94% and 100% respectively. On farm
storages have all been replenished and many small creeks and streams
continue to run fresh water.
West Region: In the north west diet quality of pastures is declining
rapidly. Stock condition is also beginning to decline and many
producers are putting out dry season licks now, which is generally
earlier than normal. In the central west pasture conditions generally
grade from good in the north east to poor in the south west with the
exception of the flood out country in the Georgina and Diamantina
systems. Areas that received the patchy April rain had good pasture
response. Conditions have generally been mild during May. Stock are
generally in improving condition as a result of patchy rain providing
some feed on most places. In the south west the southern part of the
region has experienced cooler conditions though still generally mild for
this time of year. April rain has started some winter herbage pasture
response in areas north of Charleville and Quilpie. Flood out along the
Bulloo was generally minor although it will provide some relief to
properties along the river. The eastern part of the area generally has
good standover feed although the quality has hayed off. Stock condition
is strongly aligned to the pasture quality and quantity and condition
ranges from 1 to 4. Water availability is high in the north while south
of the Winton to Boulia road there are reports of some producers relying
on dams experiencing problems as storms have only provided sporadic dam
replenishment.
Central Region: Around the Nebo area, pastures have commenced to hay
off, however there is considerable green feed as the region moves into
winter. Pasture quality and quantity is high in all areas with the
exception of a few isolated areas which missed critical rainfall events.
Cattle are generally in good condition. The Mackay coastal and
hinterland areas have had a very good season. Very good grass growing
rain fell in summer across the Central Highlands but since then, except
for the area around Bauhinia Downs, which was dry but has responded to
rain, all other areas have dried off and paddocks reflect this. The
area from Springsure south to Expedition Range is very dry. Generally
livestock condition is good although lactating cows on forest country
are losing condition fairly quickly. Both above and below ground water
supplies are plentiful with the exception of the Biloela district and
some isolated streams in the Fitzroy catchment around Nebo where
moderate stream flows were reported.
South-East Region: Livestock condition is good to excellent throughout
the region. Stock movements to sale have been average for this time of
year. Pastures have dried off but this is normal for this time of year.
South Region: Grazing animals are generally in quite good condition as a
result of low stocking rates. Pasture production benefitted from the
rain in late 2008, however during 2009 summer pasture production has
been limited in many areas. The widespread May rainfall across the
region has the potential to generate winter herbage and medics and may
encourage forage oats and barley planting. There have been some reports
of drought feeding being undertaken although low stock numbers have
reduced the need for drought feeding in most areas.
WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES:
The latest Water Storage Report from SunWater is attached.
CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE:
North Region: On the Tablelands harvesting of Rhodes grass has finished.
A dry period during the growing season has affected yields but seed
quality remains high. The grass crops now enter the dormant period
until warmer conditions at the end of the year. Legume crops have been
growing well with exceptional growing conditions this month. Fruit
quality in bananas is improving following the effects of excessive
rainfall and flooding early in the year. In the sugar cane areas rain
has affected and delayed planting this month. There was limited
planting in the Ingham district with the paddocks staying wet for most
of the month and these ongoing wet conditions are hampering the
repairing of cane paddocks and infrastructure damaged during the floods.
Around the Innisfail area good growth is being experienced and
replanting of crops that succumbed to water logging has occurred in the
Burdekin. The cane crushing season commenced with the Tablelands Mill
late in the month and harvesting conditions have generally been good.
Central Region: The sugar crop in the Mackay district responded to the
moist conditions and is doing well after experiencing a slow
February/March period due to excess rain and cloudy days. Bowen
horticulture growers are in full production. Record sorghum yields for
some producers and better than average for most were set up by good
rainfall during summer on the Central Highlands. Good growing
conditions during summer and no rain in March were perfect conditions
for the mungbean crop. The area planted to corn is small but there are
some excellent crops. A lot of cloud during the growing season is less
than ideal for cotton but despite this cotton farmers in both Emerald
and the Dawson/Callide Valleys reported average yield and most of this
was at least average quality. Some farms have already finished
harvesting peanuts and some rice was harvested around Emerald.
South-East Region: Most peanut crops in the Burnett have now been
harvested and yields have generally been average. Corn and sorghum
crops are yet to be harvested. Coastal horticulture producers have been
affected by the heavy rainfall and this will affect harvesting of all
crops. Harvesting of the hass variety avocado has begun on the Sunshine
Coast. The heavy rainfall at the end of the month has caused a
significant loss of the early season strawberry crop in the Sunshine
Coast and Caboolture areas and has continued to dislocate the harvest of
macadamias. On some macadamia farms on the Sunshine Coast the heavy
rain further exacerbated soil and nut loss problems from the April
downpours, with more nuts being washed away, roots being exposed and
gullies carved through orchards. The persimmon harvest was completed in
late April with yields and prices generally favourable although heavy
rain caused some loss of fruit quality towards the end of the picking
season.
South Region: Early sorghum crops produced average or better yields but
some crops have been affected following patchy storm rain. The harvest
continues and some very good yields have been reported on the eastern
Darling Downs in the Pittsworth and Millmerran areas. There have been
some good yields recorded in the Balonne region with the irrigated crop
area significantly exceeding last years area. The May rainfall has
generally provided good planting opportunities for the Western Downs and
Maranoa. Long fallow country in the region generally has full subsoil
moisture profile. Grape harvest yields were reported as satisfactory
and apple producers recorded a reasonable production.
Information provided by:
REGIONAL SERVICES
Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454
National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)
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The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Environment & Resource Management and Primary Industries & Fisheries. |
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