SEASONAL CONDITIONS AS AT 30 SEPTEMBER 2009
OUTLOOK:
>From the Queensland Climate Change Centre of Excellence (QCCCE):
The monthly value of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) rose from
minus 3.8 for August to plus 3.6 for September which places it in a
"Rapidly Rising" phase. Based on this SOI phase and historical rainfall
records, throughout most of Queensland there is a 50 to 60% chance (with
a few locations having up to a 70% chance) of getting above median
rainfall during October to December.
For example Roma has a 70% chance of getting above its October to
December median rainfall of 165mm, Goondiwindi has a 60% chance of
getting above its October to December median rainfall of 170mm and Dalby
has a 50% chance of getting above its October to December median
rainfall of 220mm.
However it is worth remembering that an El Nino like sea surface
temperature pattern can be still found in the Pacific. Therefore it will
be interesting to see what trend SOI values take through to the end of
the month. Negative SOI values (say below minus 5) are normally
associated with El Nino events. SOI values are currently being
influenced by the warmer than average sea surface temperatures to the
north of Australia.
A key point to remember with any probability based forecasts is that
they are just that - probabilities and not definitive forecasts.
Therefore the opposite always applies eg 70-30; 30-70.
Taroom for example, has around a 70% chance of getting above 205mm for
October to December. This also means that there is a 30% chance of NOT
getting above 205mm. Another way of looking at this is that in around
seven years out of ten historically with the current SOI phase, Taroom
has received at least 205mm during October to December. Therefore in
three years out of ten with the current SOI phase, Taroom has gotten
less than 205mm during October to December.
For those interested in following historical patterns more closely, some
of the years that have had the same SOI pattern at the end of September
include 1931, 1936, 1949, 1970, 1979, 1983, 1989, 2001 and 2005. Compare
the rainfall recorded during October to December in those years with
your long term average October to December rainfall.
STATE DROUGHT DECLARATIONS:
As at 31 August 2009, 35 percent of the land area of Queensland is
drought declared under State processes. There are a total of 23
Individually Droughted Properties (IDPs) in seven local government
areas.
RAINFALL AND TEMPERATURES: (figure in brackets indicates average)
North Region: Warm dry conditions have been reported across the region
this month. Bushfire risk is high in view of a large body of feed in
many areas and the dry conditions.
Babinda received 27mm (132), Bowen 0mm (n/a), Cairns A/P 7mm
(n/a),Charters Towers 0.0mm (n/a), Georgetown 0.0mm (n/a), Ingham 0.3mm
(37), Innisfail 38mm (n/a), Normanton A/P n/a (n/a), Proserpine A/P 0mm
(n/a) and Townsville 0mm (14).
West Region: The area experienced some storm rain early in the month.
These storms were narrow and often accompanied by significant wind
gusts. Temperatures returned to near normal with the usual September
fluctuations apparent. Dust storms resulted in significant soil loss
through wind erosion and the addition of a layer of dust across pastures
has reduced palatability.
Birdsville n/a (10), Boulia 0mm (8), Windorah 0mm (9), Cloncurry n/a
(n/a), Mt Isa 0mm (5), Longreach 0mm (14), Muttaburra n/a (13), Winton
0mm (6) and Charleville 0.2mm (22).
Central Region: Apart from isolated showers on exposed coastal parts of
the region there has been well below average rainfall for September.
Maximum temperatures have gradually increased over the month and
combined with increasing daylight hours, evaporation rates have been on
the increase. Wind and fog have also contributed to pasture
deterioration.
Alpha recorded 5mm (22), Clermont 0mm (21), Springsure 1mm (26), Mackay
1mm (29), Yaamba n/a (26), Biloela A/P n/a (n/a), Mt Larcom n/a (36),
Gladstone 1mm (32), Theodore n/a (31), and Yeppoon 2mm (n/a).
South-East Region: Rainfall for September appears to have been about
average for most centres but hot dry conditions and dust storms have
meant pastures are tinder dry and there is no soil moisture. Record
average temperatures for September were recorded in many centres.
Eidsvold recorded 2mm (34), Gayndah n/a (36), Mundubbera 4mm (34), Esk
4mm (34), Kilkivan n/a (39), Kingaroy 0.8mm (n/a), Nanango 0mm (40),
Proston 3mm (35), and Beaudesert n/a (n/a). On the coastal fringe
Bundaberg received 2mm (38), Maryborough 6mm (45), Nambour 7mm (n/a) and
Tewantin 2mm (n/a).
South Region: There has been an extended dry period since June 2009,
with below average rainfall recorded for September. The majority of the
region recorded less than 15mm for the month.
Clifton recorded 2mm (38), Dalby 1mm (n/a), Goondiwindi 5mm (n/a),
Inglewood n/a (37), Oakey 7mm (30), Pittsworth 4mm (40), Stanthorpe 4mm
(48), Toowoomba AP 4mm (n/a), Warwick 0.4mm (n/a), Roma 1mm (n/a), Miles
4mm (n/a), St George A/P 0.2mm (n/a) and Taroom 1mm (31).
LIVESTOCK, PASTURES AND WATER:
North Region: In view of the dry conditions experienced this month
pasture quantity is deteriorating. Areas in the gulf have experienced
pasture death following significant inundation for lengthy periods
following extensive flooding earlier in the year. Stock are generally in
reasonable condition and normal dry season supplementation is occurring.
There are no reported water issues. The region's two major storages of
Burdekin and Tinaroo are at 91% and 73% respectively.
West Region: In the north west pastures are hayed off and quantity
continues to deteriorate as is normal for this time of year. There is
little soil moisture and therefore little growth despite the increasing
temperatures. Stock condition generally remains at score 2 and 3 with
dry stock often above this condition. Pasture conditions are similar in
the central west with areas that received early winter rain around the
Isisford and Blackall districts now slipping in condition as the winter
herbage deteriorates, exacerbated by the hot period in late August.
Increasingly there are small areas of good pasture and larger areas of
poor pasture. Stock, particularly lactating stock, have slipped in
condition and some producers are increasing supplements to cover the
loss of energy as well as protein in the feed. A significant mixture of
seasonal conditions occurs in the area around Quilpie, Charleville,
Adavale and Wyandra that received useful rain in winter with pastures
freshening up but with little perennial growth. Herbage response has
been poorer than expected in some areas. Many producers particularly in
the central part of the area have little available feed. Stock numbers
are being reduced in many areas.
Central Region: Pasture quantity generally declines from northern to
southern parts of the region and this is reflected in a high fire risk
and fire bans in many areas. Quality is declining rapidly and some
cattle are now not responding to low level supplements indicating that
energy deficiency is now coming into play. This is due to both an
absence of bulk in the south and palatability/digestibility issues in
the north. Livestock are still generally in fair to good condition
although all cattle, especially lactating breeders, are losing live
weight.
South-East Region: Livestock condition is deteriorating and pastures are
denuded on many properties. Stock movements to sale are increasing as
the dry conditions prevail. Pastures have deteriorated significantly
since last month and fires are a problem. There is a marked increase in
the numbers of producers who are feeding cattle with molasses based
licks.
South Region: Pasture availability and quality has dropped over the
winter period. Winter herbage growth generally was poor due to warmer
conditions and limited rainfall. Pasture availability is limited
particularly throughout the Maranoa, Inglewood and west of Goondiwindi.
There has been an increase in drought feeding throughout the region.
Supplements have been purchased and failed crops fed to stock. Stock
numbers are reducing as drought conditions continue. On farm water
storage levels are generally below average because of limited runoff
this year. Water capacities have steadily declined over the extended
dry.
CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE:
North Region: The dry winter has impacted on many crops. The mango
harvest is underway on the Tablelands and the potato harvest is part
completed. There have been reasonable yields reported from the wheat
harvest. The cane crush is winding down and it is reported that although
tonnages have been affected the CCS level is reasonable.
Central Region: The winter crop harvest is about 75% completed. Average
yields have been below the long term average. This is expected given
that there has been very little rainfall since the end of February and
all months, March to September, have been below average. Chickpea crop
yields varied widely in all districts from 0.2 to 2.5 t/ha with good
crops averaging 1-1.2 t/ha. The Mackay, Proserpine, Sarina sugar harvest
is in the final stages. The yield is less than estimated however is
compensated to some extent by higher sugar levels.
South-East Region: Many winter crops of oats and barley have been fed
off or baled for hay. Some crops will be harvested but the lack of
in-crop rain means that yields will be severely reduced. The avocado
harvest season for Sunshine Coast farms has finished, although
harvesting of the main Hass variety in the cooler Blackall Range,
Tamborine, Lockyer and Toowoomba Range growing areas will continue
through October. The long period of dry weather has delayed pineapple
crop development and maturity, affecting harvesting programs. Changeable
spring temperatures have increased translucency problems in fruit,
increasing reject levels at the cannery. Many strawberry growers pulled
out of harvesting as the month progressed, but late harvest Ruby Gem
fruit quality was reported to be generally standing up well. Harvesting
of this season's macadamia nuts was generally completed during
September.
Flowering this spring has been profuse.
South Region: There was widespread planting of wheat, barley and
chickpeas this winter with May and June rain providing good planting
opportunities. However there has been no appreciable rainfall
throughout the region since June and hotter than normal conditions in
August significantly affected production in many areas. Wheat crops in
the Dirranbandi/Mungindi areas and east of St George are reported to be
quite good, however most of the cropping area is suffering with failed
crops being fed off to stock. Long fallowed crops that were planted
earlier in the season are generally coping the best. There is limited
sub soil moisture in most areas at the present time thus limiting
prospects for summer crop production at this stage. Irrigation water
supplies have ensured continuous vegetable production on the Granite
Belt.
Information provided by:
REGIONAL SERVICES
Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454
National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)
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The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Environment & Resource Management and Primary Industries & Fisheries. |
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