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page regenerated:
08 Aug 2008

Latest coloured drought situation map.

Latest black & white drought situation map and shire listing.

OUTLOOK:

>From the Queensland Climate Change Centre of Excellence: According to the latest El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) wrap up from the Bureau of Meteorology (www.bom.gov.au) sea surface temperatures (SST) in the Pacific Ocean have stayed within the neutral range although they continued to warm. Trade winds remain close to average in the central and east Pacific, but have strengthened in the west. Cloudiness near the international date-line remains near normal.

Also the majority of the surveyed ocean/atmosphere forecast models predict a neutral SST pattern persisting in the Pacific through to late winter and spring. Of the five that predict through to the end of 2008, all indicate a continuing neutral SST pattern until at least December. No models forecast a return to La Nina conditions. Therefore SST's are most likely to remain in a neutral climate pattern with a low risk of a return to El Nino conditions in 2008. However it is worth watching SOI trends and Pacific Ocean SST development over the next couple of months as we approach our spring and summer rainfall seasons.

Based on a Consistently Near Zero Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) phase at the end of July there is a 30 to 50% chance of getting median rainfall throughout most of Queensland during July to September. The exception is for the central north of the state where there is a lower 20 to 40% chance of getting median rainfall. The thirty day average as of 5 August was plus 2.7.

While rainfall probabilities for the north are not as high as the rest of the state it is worth noting that especially for northern Queensland we are in our 'dry season'. Therefore significant or 'drought breaking' rain is not usual during this period regardless of the seasonal outlook.

STATE DROUGHT DECLARATIONS:

As at 31 July 2008, 54.3% of the land area of Queensland is drought declared under State processes.

LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES:

North Region: Significant late rain throughout most of the region has resulted in better than average falls which should improve pasture growth and increase water levels above and below ground. Most of the Mareeba area has experienced good falls but some parts of the Coen area received only half of their annual rainfall which has put pressure on surface water supplies. Pasture condition is holding in most areas and green shoot has resulted following rain and warmer daily temperatures. Cattle are generally in stable condition for this time of year although some breeders with weaners at foot are slipping in body condition. Supplementary feeding has alleviated some of the pressure. Stock across the Tablelands are in good condition. Pastures have hayed off and are looking dry in spite of rainfall being recorded. Frosts were recorded towards the end of the month. Surface water is readily available. In the South Johnstone district, stock are in good condition as is pasture along the coastal areas. There is plenty of surface water available. Generally stock in the Normanton area are in good condition with old cows and big weaners in store to forward store condition. Pasture response to the patchy rainfall has varied with some areas having good bodies of feed and others remaining light, however the feed is drying out quickly. Moderate to heavy unseasonal rain fell through the Townsville stock district late in July and was followed by a few days of quite cold weather and well below average daily temperatures. Stock condition is good and pastures are normal for this time of year. The Charters Towers stock district has recorded unseasonal but plentiful rain which has afforded replenishment to the water table and run off into surface supplies. All classes of stock are holding condition for this time of year with breeders having weaner calves slipping as protein levels and body condition drops. Most producers have instigated a supplementary feeding program to assist. Pasture quality and quantity have slipped as per normal seasonal decline but recent winter rains should boost levels with results evident for the next month or so. Water supplies, both surface and underground, are adequate at this stage.

West Region: In the North West, pasture is limited in quality and quantity in Mt Isa city council area and parts of Cloncurry and McKinlay regional council areas and consequently significant destocking has taken place. There were some fair to moderate falls of rain reported in Flinders and Richmond council areas during July but parts of the open downs country recorded some spoiling rain late in the month, the full effects of which are unknown yet. Stock are in fair to good condition with some producers providing supplementary feeding. Mixed conditions are reported across the Central West with some rain recorded during the month. The area south of Stonehenge remains particularly dry. Generally the red country has recorded a positive response to recent rain but there has been a negative impact on pasture in the black soil country. Cool to cold conditions have also slowed the pasture growth in many areas, resulting in stock condition slipping. Some severe frosts have been recorded in the Blackall Tambo council area, affecting the buffel grass in the open country, but generally pasture in the timbered areas remains green. There were reasonable to good falls of rain recorded in the area during July. Stock are in good condition and many producers are beginning to restock. Stocking rates remain low in the far south west and therefore the majority of stock are holding condition. For those where pasture response is expected from flooding and/or rainfall, the stock should improve their condition with stock in Bulloo/Barcoo flood out areas already in store to forward store condition.

Central Region: The Mackay area recorded between 75-125mm of steady soaking rain and with current day lengths and temperatures this should provide limited pasture growth but with good prospects for the coming spring. The hinterland has a large body of dry feed while in coastal shires both quantity and quality are an issue with nutritional value generally less than would be expected for this time of year. Hinterland stock are in excellent condition and coastal cattle are holding condition. In the Clermont stock district 80mm of rain recorded for the month has provided a good start for the coming season. Buffel grass has plenty of green flag and although it may be affected by current cold weather and some reported frosts, quantity and quality are good and should continue to improve once temperatures increase. Livestock are reported to be in excellent condition with significant numbers to meatworks. Around 75mm of rain fell over much of the Rockhampton district during the month which has improved soil moisture, run some water and resulted in some pasture response. Stock condition generally is average with some lighter cows being seen through the saleyards. Rainfall events during recent months have kept some of the improved pasture species green. Daytime temperatures have generally been warm and this has resulted in new growth. Native pasture species have not responded as well and remain as dry feed and some properties still have a low volume of feed.

South-East Region: Stock condition remains good to excellent. Milder weather has been favourable for stock with only minimal loss of condition in most cases. Sale cattle numbers continue at normal levels with prices increasing over the last two weeks of the month. There is still a good bulk of pasture and as this dries off it may be necessary to supplement stock. There are no reports of drought feeding. The rain recorded has rejuvenated many pastures. In the absence of heavy frosts pasture quality and quantity has remained good. Rainfall during the month has had a positive effect on winter forage crops of rye grass and oats.

South Region: In the Roma district stock are generally in good condition. There is still a good body of dry feed present but it is of low quality. There is around 40 percent of dry pasture with some herbage in the southern Taroom area and stock condition is reported as good. In the northern area stock condition is reported as holding and there is still good ground coverage. However the pasture that is available has minimal nutrients. In the Cambooya/Clifton district pasture quality is low and stock are holding condition score 3-4. Stock in the Tara/Wambo/Chinchilla district appear to be holding well with the majority of cattle in the range of store to fat. The rain and showers experienced in mid to late July are yet to produce any significant pasture growth. In the Oakey district very short green feed has struck after a very dry four month period. Spelled pastures have a green shoot with cover. Medics have struck and some warm days following the recent relief rain should see grown fodder available within the next month. Oats and barley are the main stock fodder crops being grown at this time. Snow and sleet was reported on the Southern Downs at the end of the month and the severe ice and frost conditions during the month have affected stock. Wet breeders with some out of season calving are being supplemented in most areas. Natural pasture has reduced in quality and quantity since the onset of frosts. There is plentiful dry feed in many places in the Balonne regional council district and recent rain should assist herbage growth and response from buffel with the onset of spring. Some restocking has taken place within the area.

CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE:

North Region: The legume harvesting season has begun on the Tablelands and conditions have been very good, with only a slight rain delay mid month. The maize harvest is in its final stages and yields have been reported as reasonable. Potatoes have been planted and are growing well. There have been high horticulture production levels in the Bowen district in view of very good growing conditions for the winter season. On the Tablelands and surrounding areas the sugarcane crush is well under way. Yields have increased and sugar content has been very good to date. In the Tully district harvesting was delayed for a week late in July due to wet weather. No adverse impacts from the July rainfall have been reported in the Herbert district apart from a five day delay in harvesting operations. In the Burdekin the harvest continues to be affected by stoppages with wet weather keeping harvesters out of paddocks this month.

Central Region: The 50-80mm of rain recorded on the Central Highlands late in the month was much needed and should set some crops up for a very good finish. Crops to the north of Emerald were mostly deep planted and had received virtually no in-crop rain so were struggling and at risk of failing. Later planted crops were also in much need of rain to ensure secondary root development. There have been a few reports of suspected frost damage for both wheat and chickpeas on lower frost-prone country following a cold snap in the second week of July. Chickpea plants that dropped flowers are expected to compensate by producing more flowers but the extent of potential frost damage to wheat is unknown at this stage. The Dawson Callide district received around 100mm of very good rainfall for the month. Most districts received rain in three separate events and all was low intensity providing excellent opportunities for soaking in. This year's winter crops have been sown over a wide window, with some only just planted through to some wheat crops now filling grain. Soil moisture levels in fallow paddocks have generally received a significant boost providing a positive outlook for winter crops to meet yield expectations and an optimistic outlook for spring/summer crops.

South-East Region: Overall winter crops in the South Burnett are looking good after most areas received 80-100mm of rain for July. Wheat and barley crops have been planted and at this stage there is no sign of rust in crops and no spraying has been carried out. Some crops are being top dressed with nitrogen. Corn crops are still being harvested. There has been a particular interest for planting soybeans in the Wide Bay area. There were two significant rain events recorded during the month at the Maroochy Research Station with totals of 180mm. There were some reports of fungal disease in strawberries possibly as a result of wet and windy weather at the end of May. Harvesting of the 2008 macadamia crop continued during the month.

South Region: Wheat was planted throughout the region after the early June rain and rain in July prompted late planting of wheat and barley around the Warwick area. Stock producers also planted forage crops in some areas to assist animal production. The current Granite belt dam levels should ensure a good supply for most fruit and vegetable growers.

RAINFALL (figure in brackets indicates average)

North Region: Babinda received 110mm (132) Cairns A/P 61mm (n/a), Ingham 129mm (35), Innisfail 194mm (n/a), Townsville 95mm (11), Tully n/a (n/a), Bowen 91mm (n/a), Charters Towers 145mm (n/a), Georgetown 63mm (n/a) and Normanton A/P n/a (n/a) and Proserpine A/P 93mm (n/a).

West Region: Birdsville n/a (14), Boulia 0.1mm (11), Windorah 0mm (17), Cloncurry n/a (n/a), Mt Isa 2mm (9), Longreach 33mm (21), Muttaburra 47mm (19), Winton 27mm (17) and Charleville 8mm (24).

Central Region: Alpha recorded 77mm (25), Clermont 82mm (23), Springsure 56mm (30), Mackay 110mm (48), Yaamba 34mm (94), Biloela A/P n/a (n/a), Mt Larcom 129mm (38), Gladstone 152mm (43), Theodore 92mm (37), and Yeppoon 109mm (n/a).

South-East Region: Eidsvold recorded 80mm (38), Gayndah 113mm (39), Mundubbera 73mm (38), Esk 74mm (51), Kilkivan 3mm (49), Kingaroy 23mm (n/a), Nanango 108mm (49), Proston 94mm (41), and Beaudesert n/a (n/a). On the coastal fringe Bundaberg received 112mm (49), Maryborough 51mm (59), Nambour 180mm (n/a) and Tewantin 202 (n/a).

South Region: Clifton 40mm (43), Dalby 68mm (n/a), Goondiwindi 39mm (n/a), Inglewood n/a (40), Oakey 71mm (38), Pittsworth 39mm (47), Stanthorpe 45mm (52), Toowoomba AP 73mm (n/a), Warwick 29mm (n/a), Roma 44mm (n/a), Miles 46mm (n/a), St George A/P 56mm (n/a) and Taroom 74mm (35).

WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES

North Region: The Norman, Gilbert, Flinders and Bynoe rivers had a little flow from recent rains. Water supplies in the Burke Shire are reported to be average to low with underground supplies already been used. The Burdekin Dam reached full capacity during the month. Tinaroo Dam is currently 87%.

West Region: There have been no reports that water for stock is an issue in the North West, however there have been some reports of water shortages around Yaraka. Water supplies are adequate in the South West as there is a good supply from the Great Artesian Basin.

Central Region: There have been no reported water shortages. Kinchant Dam is 100% and Fairbairn Dam is 88% capacity.

South-East Region: There has been useful replenishment of many dams and watercourses in the region. Major dams have had boosts to their supply levels and some creeks have had out of season flows.

South Region: There has been limited run off since February resulting in slowing of stream flow. Although there was some recovery of aquifers over summer water storages have steadily fallen over recent months.

How droughts are declared in Queensland

Drought declarations are made by the Minister for Primary Industries and Fisheries upon recommendations from Local Drought Committees (LDCs). Individually Droughted Property (IDP) status is granted when criteria related to rainfall, pasture and stock conditions are met. Drought status is revoked when there has been sufficient rainfall to promote enough pasture growth to permit stocking at 'normal' or 'near-normal' carrying capacities for the given time of year.

Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY

Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454

National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)

The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries.