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16 Nov 2009

Latest coloured drought situation map.

Latest black & white drought situation map and shire listing.

OUTLOOK:

>From the Queensland Climate Change Centre of Excellence (QCCCE): Based on a Rapidly Falling Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) phase at the end of October and historical rainfall records, there is a 30 to 60% chance of getting above median rainfall throughout southern and western Queensland for November through to the end of January. However, the chance of getting above median rainfall throughout central and northern Queensland is lower and varies between 20 to 40%.

For example Ayr has an 25% chance of getting above its November to January median rainfall of 360mm, Mackay has a 33% chance of getting above its November to January median rainfall of 510mm, Wyandra has a 50% chance of getting above its November to January median rainfall of 105mm, Gatton-Lawes has a 50% chance of getting above its November to January median rainfall of 270 mm, Mount Isa has a 50% chance of getting above its November to January median rainfall of 160mm and Talwood has a 58% chance of getting its November to January median rainfall of 185mm.

It is worth noting that even for those areas with a lower chance of getting above median rainfall, that as we are entering our spring/summer rainfall season there is still a reasonable chance of getting some useful relief rain.

For those who like to follow the relationship between the SOI and rainfall patterns in more detail have a look at what happened in your area during November to January in the following years that have had a 'Rapidly Falling' SOI phase at the end of October; 1915, 1920, 1925, 1941, 1944, 1947, 1963, 1978, 1981, 1992 and 2006.

It can be useful to find out what rainfall and farming conditions were like in your area for September to November in those years. Information on what rainfall patterns were like in those years is available at www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au or in Rainman StreamFlow.

When using a climate forecast you should remember that the probability or percent chance of something occurring is just that - a probability. For example if there is a 70% chance of recording more than 100 mm there is also a 30% chance of recording less than 100 mm i.e. 70-30; 30-70. It does not mean that you will get 70% more than 100 mm or 100 mm plus another 70%.

The 30day average of the SOI as of the 3rd November is minus 16.4. You can receive a text message with the latest SOI values sent to your mobile phone. To subscribe to this free service, e-mail david.mcrae@climatechange.qld.gov.au. The latest rainfall probability maps are available at www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au

STATE DROUGHT DECLARATIONS: As at 31 October 2009, 35 percent of the land area of Queensland is drought declared under State processes. There are a total of 46 Individually Droughted Properties (IDPs) in nine local government areas.

The Minister for Police, Corrective Services and Emergency Services, the Honourable Neil Roberts MP, has activated the Commonwealth/State Natural Disaster Relief and Recovery Arrangements (NDRRA) for the following communities within Queensland affected by bushfires commencing 22 September 2009:

Barcaldine, Bundaberg, Central Highlands, Fraser Coast, Gladstone, Gold Coast, Gympie, Hinchinbrook, Isaac, Maranoa, North Burnett, Rockhampton, Somerset, South Burnett, Southern Downs, Townsville, Whitsunday.

RAINFALL AND TEMPERATURES: (figure in brackets indicates average)

North Region: The trend of below average rainfall continued across the region this month, the exception being a small area along the coast in the Herbert district where good average to above average falls were recorded. Below average rainfall has now been consistently recorded across most parts of the region for the last six months and although this period is historically the drier part of the year, the effects are starting to become noticeable as daytime temperatures increase. Total fire bans have been in place across much of the north but fires have occurred in many areas causing losses of pasture and infrastructure.

Babinda received 123mm (109), Bowen 7mm (n/a), Cairns A/P 31mm (44a),Charters Towers 0.0mm (n/a), Georgetown 0.4mm (n/a), Ingham 83mm (47), Innisfail 57mm (n/a), Normanton A/P n/a (n/a), Proserpine A/P 17mm (n/a) and Townsville 1mm (25).

West Region: During the last week of the month rainfall was reported in a strip from Hughenden through to Cunnamulla and Hungerford, the heaviest being in the south of the area including falls of up to 95mm recorded in the Wyandra area. Temperatures have generally remained relatively cool for October. Reports of dust storms with significant soil movement have been received and dust settling on pastures has affected palatability in some areas.

Birdsville n/a (12), Boulia 0mm (13), Windorah 0mm (9), Cloncurry n/a (n/a), Mt Isa 0mm (5), Longreach 0mm (14), Muttaburra n/a (13), Winton 0.4mm (17) and Charleville 21mm (31).

Central Region: Rainfall was generally below average in all areas except for intense patchy storms north of Capella with some storm damage being reported in isolated areas. Hot days and cool nights have prevailed with windy periods in all districts.

Alpha recorded 62mm (34), Clermont 24mm (36), Springsure 18mm (42), Mackay 3mm (39), Yaamba 8mm (42), Biloela A/P n/a (n/a), Mt Larcom 9mm (59), Gladstone 10mm (61), Theodore 6mm (64), and Yeppoon 5mm (n/a).

South-East Region: Rainfall for October was below average for all centres. Hot dry conditions and dust storms have meant pastures are tinder dry and there is no soil moisture. These very dry and low humidity conditions have caused significant fire damage on properties in the Gaeta, Mt Perry, Tansey/Kilkivan and Eidsvold districts. Generally seasonal conditions are poor for this time of year with many properties reporting serious water supply issues.

Eidsvold recorded n/a (66), Gayndah n/a (62), Mundubbera 10mm (71), Esk 39mm (82), Kilkivan n/a (75), Kingaroy 31mm (n/a), Nanango 43mm (79), Proston 26mm (70), and Beaudesert n/a (n/a). On the coastal fringe Bundaberg received 4mm (67), Maryborough 5mm (75), Nambour 79mm (n/a) and Tewantin 34mm (n/a).

South Region: Rainfall recorded for the month was generally below average and overall there has been a major rainfall deficit across most of the region since June 2009. However, falls of 40mm were recorded in parts of the eastern Downs and 70mm in the Bollon district during October.

Clifton recorded 42mm (67), Dalby 7mm (n/a), Goondiwindi 12mm (n/a), Inglewood 28mm (58), Oakey 36mm (61), Pittsworth 27mm (67), Stanthorpe 46mm (76), Toowoomba AP 45mm (n/a), Warwick 29mm (n/a), Roma 5mm (n/a), Miles 15mm (n/a), St George A/P 13mm (n/a) and Taroom 24mm (60).

LIVESTOCK, PASTURES AND WATER:

North Region: Livestock and pastures continue their normal decline in quality and condition as the season progresses into the latter part of the dry season. Overall pastures are generally reasonable, but lacking protein, with plenty of dry feed available across the region. Reports indicate that some producers have commenced normal dry season supplementation earlier and have been upgrading to energy based supplements. Quality of stock appears good but cows calving now are showing the effects of seasonal nutritional deficiencies. The region's major water storages of Tinaroo and Burdekin Dams received good inflows this year and are at 69% and 87% respectively. On farm storages have all been replenished and many small creeks and streams continue to run fresh water well into the dry season.

West Region: Very low levels of nutrition are present in most of the hayed off pastures in the north west and quantity continues to deteriorate as is normal for this time of year. Stock condition is generally at score 2 and 3, with dry stock often above this condition but with deteriorating pasture quality the majority of livestock are continuing to slip in condition. In the central west pasture has also hayed off and continues to deteriorate, with good areas of pasture showing signs of grazing pressure as well as the impact of dust. There are reports of increased use of supplements. Wild fires from lightning strikes occurred to the north of Barcaldine and south of Alpha during the month affecting a number of properties. Areas around Quilpie, Charleville, Adavale and Wyandra in the south west that received useful rain in winter had pastures freshen up but with little perennial growth. Herbage response has been poorer than expected in some areas. In the eastern part of the area there are reports of increasing supplementation as a result of pastures reducing and the impacts of dust settling on pastures. Many producers particularly in the central part of the area have little available feed and stock condition is strongly aligned to the available pasture quality and quantity. Stock numbers are being reduced in many areas.

Central Region: Most livestock are losing condition or at best just holding. Generally pastures are in adequate supply but of low quality. The majority of cattle in the area are being supplemented and the condition of unsupplemented cattle is rapidly falling. Failed crops and stubble have been fed off to some stock. Demand on all water reserves has increased with supplies from shallow bores and temporary waters being exhausted. There have been reports of some losses in capacity from bores in the Capella area and reports of issues with water supply in the Moura district. Isolated but large fires affecting individual landowners have destroyed large areas of pasture in the region.

South-East Region: Livestock condition is becoming very poor on some properties and pastures are denuded. Stock movements to sale are slowing despite the dry conditions. Pastures have deteriorated significantly since last month and fires continue to be a problem. There is a marked increase in the numbers of producers feeding cattle.

South Region: Stock condition continues to deteriorate due to insufficient pasture availability. Many herds are calving at this time of year and the condition of lactating cows is being adversely affected. Pasture availability is down as the rainfall deficit over the winter months and dry conditions experienced in September and October limited herbage and medic growth. Although warmer conditions are now being experienced there has been insufficient rainfall to activate pasture growth across much of the region. Bushfires have burnt already depleted and limited pasture supplies in some areas. On farm water storage levels are low because of limited runoff this year. There are reports of increased drought feeding across the region and destocking continues in some areas.

CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE:

North Region: Legume crops on the Tablelands have experienced very good growing conditions and harvesting of lablab, forage peanut and stylos has commenced. On the wet tropical coast banana production has fallen this month due to good growing conditions over winter allowing trees to be harvested earlier than anticipated. The cane harvest has now finished. In the Herbert district rainfall resulted in minimal delays to the crush by a few days but was beneficial for both ratoon and plant cane which were starting to show the effects of moisture stress. Many farmers are now preparing land for summer fallow and legume plantings.

Central Region: Harvest of the winter crop is effectively finished on the Central Highlands with varying yields. Below long term average yields were mostly recorded as a result of very little rainfall being recorded since the end of February and all months March to October generally having below average rainfall. The cane crush has been completed and no stoppages as a result of wet weather were reported.

South-East Region: The last of the winter crops are now being harvested. The summer planting window has now opened but there is little if any soil moisture to plant on. Flowering for avocados peaked in October and the long period of dry weather has delayed pineapple crop development and maturity, affecting harvesting programs. A few growers will continue harvesting of strawberries into November with many having ploughed out their blocks and being in the process of planting a break crop of sorghum to protect soil from erosion and improve soil organic matter for the coming season.

South Region: There was widespread planting of wheat, barley and chickpea during winter following the good planting opportunities after the May and June rainfall. However there has been an appreciable rainfall deficit since this time and extremely hot conditions in August badly affected production. Most of the cropping area in the region is suffering with failed crops being fed off to stock or sprayed out, although there have been reports of quite good wheat production from the Dirranbandi/Mungindi area. Small areas of new season sorghum have been planted into standing stubble on long fallowed country in paddocks in the Macalister to Warra districts. Summer crop production prospects are currently limited due to restricted subsoil moisture. Irrigation water supplies have ensured continuous vegetable production in the Granite Belt although late frosts have affected wine production.

How droughts are declared in Queensland

Drought declarations are made by the Minister for Primary Industries, Fisheries and Rural and Regional Queensland upon recommendations from Local Drought Committees (LDCs). Individually Droughted Property (IDP) status is granted when criteria related to rainfall, pasture and stock conditions are met. Drought status is revoked when there has been sufficient rainfall to promote enough pasture growth to permit stocking at 'normal' or 'near-normal' carrying capacities for the given time of year.

Information provided by:
REGIONAL SERVICES

Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454

National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)

The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Environment & Resource Management and Primary Industries & Fisheries.