A survey of the assessment of seasonal conditions in pastoral Australia—Part 5: Western Australia report
Benchmarking in the Aussie GRASS Project
Report cover for Part 5: Western Australia report
Julie Roche and Ian Watson, Agriculture Western Australia, Western Australia
A product of The Aussie GRASS Project
A collaborative research and extension project carried out by:
- Queensland Department of Natural Resources
- Queensland Department of Primary Industries
- Agriculture Western Australia
- Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries, Northern Territory
- Primary Industries and Resources South Australia
- Department of Environment, Heritage and Aboriginal Affairs, South Australia
- Department of Land and Water Conservation, NSW
- NSW Agriculture
This survey was supported by Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry - Australia, and Australia's rural R & D Corporations under the Climate Variability in Agriculture Program.
Queensland Department of Primary Industries
Report Series QO99018
ISSN 0727-6281
Agdex 320/020
November 1999
Summary
A selected sample of graziers, not strictly random, was surveyed in each of the three Western Australia Regions. A total of 26 completed survey forms was returned. The feedback collected covered four areas: general information about respondent; monitoring seasonal conditions; 'big-picture' information; and scaled attitudinal responses. Detailed responses to all questions are given, including all individual responses received from open questions.
The following conclusions can be made from the survey, as described, and the results obtained:
- The survey results provide reasonable guidance for developing an effective Communication Plan and Extension Program, despite the small sample size.
- As all 26 respondents keep daily rainfall records, and these are all 'complete' or 'fairly complete', the challenge is to help them make better use of these valuable data. A total of 73% of respondents do not currently use long-term climatic records to assist in decision-making. However, all would surely use their perception of 'average' seasons based on their own rainfall records. There is some suggestion, particularly in the winter rainfall dominated Southern Rangelands that managers do not have a clear idea of the rainfall regime of their local area, since about half nominated periods other than winter as the time of most rainfall.
- Fifty-four percent said that judgements of future climatic conditions were 'very important' or 'moderately important' in their planning or decision-making, so they are likely to be receptive to training aimed at a better understanding of seasonal climate forecasting, and the use of such information; Only 27% currently use seasonal climate forecasts in decision-making.
- There is a reasonably good acceptance of probability-based information, as 51% said that probability-based information is 'moderately useful' to 'very useful' in the management of their business. In addition, most respondents agree with releasing seasonal climate forecasts in the form of probabilities. However, it is not clear how well understood the use of probability based information is. There was some indication in the text responses that 'probability' was equated with 'predicted' (i.e. 100% probability).
- While 58% said big-picture information was 'slightly important' to 'moderately important' in their planning, 35% were unaware of the information. In addition 58% of those who have used big-picture information have found it 'moderately useful'. Also, 69% of those who have not used big-picture information thought it could be 'moderately useful' or 'very useful', while 6% of respondents have no idea how useful it might be. Thus respondents should generally be receptive to Aussie GRASS extension activities.
- Users of big-picture products have some problems with accessing information, interpreting and using it; also there are some reservations about product accuracy and forecasting ability. These issues need to be addressed in implementing the Aussie GRASS extension program. It will be important to point out that there is no universal panacea to seasonal forecasting. Best use needs to be made of existing records for seasonal context and good understanding of probabilities is necessary for forecasting purposes.
- The most convenient ways to access seasonal climate outlook information are 'faxed directly', rural newspapers, TV, and radio. As 96% have a facsimile machine, this appears to be the best current method for pastoralists to obtain accurate information. However, 60% have a computer, 12% currently have access to the Internet and most respondents accept that an increasing amount of information will be computerised. Thus their use of software programs and the Internet are likely to increase. Isolation in WA pastoral areas will mean that the use of the Internet will be less than in more populated areas for some time to come.
- There appears to be strong support for the concept of Feed Shortage Alerts, and moderate support for the provision of warnings of possible deterioration of pastures or soil.
- Western Australian pastoralists have not been exposed to the concept of El Nino and the SOI as much as eastern states' producers. Obviously, this is due to the reduced effects of these on the west coast. However, it does mean that they are less sensitive to big-picture climate information. In the east, El Nino and SOI provide effective vehicles for raising the profile of seasonal intelligence. The same is not true in the west and it will not become so unless a complementary Index is found for the west coast and promoted.
- Seasonally related big-picture information may have to be tailored differently to west coast producers. Rather than focussing on forecasts, it might be better to concentrate on seasonal context information using their own (often very good) long term rainfall records. This would allow them to make better judgements about the 'averageness' of current seasons and set stocking rates accordingly.
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Last updated: 15 June 2009