Can seasonal climate forecasting prevent degradation of Australia's grazing lands?
The front cover of the report
QNR14
Final Report For the Climate Variability in Agriculture Program
October 2001
Greg M. McKeon and Wayne B. Hall
Project objectives
The aim of this project was to evaluate the impact of seasonal forecasting for grazing enterprises across Australia's grazing lands through the following objectives:
- Construct hindcast seasonal forecasts with different lead times for specific locations across Australia (Gascoyne Catchment, WA; northern South Australia; western NSW; western Queensland; and north-eastern Queensland);
- Calibrate the existing pasture model GRASP to simulate pasture and animal production;
- Develop simple models for soil loss (function of cover) and vegetation dynamics (function of climate variability, fire, grazing) and validate these models with known historical degradation events;
- Simulate the impact of grazing management strategies including decision rules (stocking rate change and burning) which use climate forecasts;
- Compare management strategies in terms of animal production, resource condition and management needs such as drought feeding and financial trading;
- Examine the influence of the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation and Antarctic Circumpolar Wave on ENSO and therefore their impact on identified degradation events;
- Evaluate the potential for forecasts from General Circulation and Regional Circulation Models to have helped prevent degradation episodes in the 1960s and 1980s in Queensland;
- Evaluate the capability of General Circulation and Regional Circulation Models to forecast rainfall and temperature under current global warming conditions; and
- Adapt and improve existing statistical forecast systems for use in Australia's grazing lands.
- Full report (PDF, 1.4M, last updated 01:38PM, 5 December 2008)*
* Requires Adobe Reader
Last updated: 15 June 2009