The Consistent Climate Scenarios Project
The Department of Science, Information Technology, Innovation and the Arts has undertaken a project which aims to provide climate change projections data for 2030 and 2050 in ‘ready-to-use’ formats suitable for input to biophysical models such as GRASP and APSIM.
The Consistent Climate Scenarios Project was funded by the Commonwealth Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry (DAFF) until June 2012, through its Australia’s Farming Future – Climate Change Research Program.
Projections data developed as part of this project are now available for download.
Information about the project is also available in this fact sheet (PDF, 600K, last updated 03:57PM, 13 July 2011)*.
Why was the project needed?
Researchers studying climate change impacts on primary industries did not have access to climate change projections in a format suitable for biophysical modelling. This project provided researchers with ‘ready-to-use’ projections data for climate change impacts and adaptation studies.
By developing projections data in a consistent manner across Australia and making these data readily accessible to researchers, the Consistent Climate Scenarios Project made it easier for researchers to undertake climate change adaptation studies and to compare results.
What did the project produce?
The project produced Australia-wide projections data for 2030 and 2050 as daily time-series in a format suitable for most biophysical models.
Biophysical models typically require daily climate input data for individual locations. This project provided daily projections of rainfall, evaporation, minimum and maximum temperature, solar radiation and vapour pressure deficit for individual locations. Projections data were also developed on a 0.05 degree (approximately 5 kilometre) grid across Australia.
The projections data are based on 19 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report global climate models deemed to be most reliable for the Australian region (Suppiah et al. 2007 (PDF)*; Smith and Chiew, 2009 (PDF)*).
For each global climate model, projection data options include a range of emissions scenarios and climate sensitivities.
Initially historical climate data in SILO were scaled based on climate projections for 2030 and 2050 derived from CSIRO's OzClim. A more sophisticated approach based on quantile-matching was then implemented to produce climate projections for 2020.
A User Guide has been developed to assist data users.
Consistent Climate Scenarios project flowchart
* Requires Adobe Reader
Last updated 19 July 2012