The Department of Environment, Science and Innovation’s (DESI) Seasonal Variability Unit (SVU) produces a monthly climate statement which interprets seasonal climate outlook information for Queensland. The monthly climate statement is based on the DESI SVU’s own information and also draws on information from national and international climate agencies.

The DESI SVU assessment of rainfall probabilities is based on the current state of the ocean and atmosphere and its similarity with previous years. In particular the SVU monitors the current and projected state of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) referring to information such as sea-surface temperature (SST) anomaly maps and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Based on this information, the SVU uses two systems to calculate rainfall probabilities for Queensland:

  • SOI-Phase system produces seasonal rainfall probabilities based on ‘phases’ of the Southern Oscillation Index.
  • the  SVU  experimental  SPOTA-1 (Seasonal Pacific Ocean Temperature Analysis - version 1) monitors Pacific Ocean SSTs from March to October each year to provide long-lead ‘outlooks’ for Queensland summer (November to March) rainfall.

Outlooks based on both the SOI-Phase system and SPOTA-1 are available, although a password is required to access the experimental SPOTA-1 information (email longpaddock@qld.gov.au).

Independent providers (* ) and international research institutions (**) are listed as information sources. No warranty or endorsement is implied by the Department of Environment, Science and Innovation. Some clients find useful supplementary and comparative information in these services.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) is Australia’s national weather and climate services provider.

Last updated: 31 January 2024