The Queensland Government produces a monthly climate statement which interprets seasonal climate outlook information for Queensland. The monthly climate statement is based on the Queensland Government's own information and also draws on information from national and international climate agencies.

The Queensland Government assessment of rainfall probabilities is based on the current state of the ocean and atmosphere and its similarity with previous years. In particular the Queensland Government monitors the current and projected state of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) referring to information such as sea-surface temperature (SST) anomaly maps and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Based on this information, the Queensland Government uses two systems to calculate rainfall probabilities for Queensland:

  • SOI-Phase system produces seasonal rainfall probabilities based on ‘phases’ of the Southern Oscillation Index.
  • the Queensland Government’s experimental SPOTA-1 (Seasonal Pacific Ocean Temperature Analysis - version 1) monitors Pacific Ocean SSTs from March to October each year to provide long-lead ‘outlooks’ for Queensland summer (November to March) rainfall.

Outlooks based on both the SOI-Phase system and SPOTA-1 are freely available, although a password is required to access the experimental SPOTA-1 information (email rouseabout@dsiti.qld.gov.au).

Last updated 26 October 2015

Last updated: 7 June 2018