Seasonal Climate Outlook Message for October to January 2006

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Patchy Outlook For Australia 10th October

The monthly value of the SOI rose from minus 6.5 at the end of August to plus 3.3 at the end of September placing it in a "Rapidly Rising" phase. Based on this SOI phase and historical rainfall records there is a 50 to 70% chance of getting above median rainfall for October to December across most of Queensland.

There is a lower 20 to 40% chance of getting above median rainfall during October to December across much of southern and western NSW, parts of northern and western South Australia and extending into the Northern Territory. For the rest of Australia the outlook is patchy with probabilities of getting above median rainfall varying from 50% to 80% in a few locations on the Western Australian coastline. Therefore we recommend referring to Rainman StreamFlow for more information for your location.

As of the 10th October the 30-day average of the SOI is plus 3.3. Daily updates on the SOI are available on (07) 46881439. The latest rainfall probability maps are at www.dpi.qld.gov.au/climate or www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au.

For more information contact the DPI&F Call Centre on 132523 or (07) 3404 6999.