Seasonal Climate Outlook Message for February to May 2006

The bottom line

SOI in Rising Phase 02/02/06

The monthly value of the SOI rose from minus 1.4 for December to plus 11.7 for January.

Based on a "Rapidly Rising" SOI Phase there is a 50 to 70% chance of getting above median rainfall across most of north west and central west Queensland during February to March. For the remainder of the state there is a 30 to 50% chance of getting above median rainfall.

An improvement in the seasonal outlook would be expected if positive values of the SOI persist throughout the month.