Seasonal climate outlook
The Science Delivery Division of the Department of Science, Information Technology, Innovation and the Arts (DSITIA) produces a monthly climate statement which interprets seasonal climate outlook information for Queensland. The monthly climate statement is based on DSITIA's own information and also draws on information from national and international climate agencies.
The DSITIA assessment of rainfall probabilities is based on the current state of the ocean and atmosphere and its similarity with previous years. In particular DSITIA monitors the current and projected state of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) referring to information such as sea-surface temperature (SST) anomaly maps and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Based on this information, DSITIA uses two systems to calculate rainfall probabilities for Queensland:
- DSITIA’s SOI-Phase system produces seasonal rainfall probabilities based on ‘phases’ of the Southern Oscillation Index.
- DSITIA’s experimental SPOTA-1 (Seasonal Pacific Ocean Temperature Analysis - version 1) monitors Pacific Ocean SSTs from March to October each year to provide long-lead ‘outlooks’ for Queensland summer (November to March) rainfall.
Outlooks based on both the SOI-Phase system and SPOTA-1 are freely available, although a password is required to access the experimental SPOTA-1 information (email email@example.com).
Last updated 3 December 2014